2013 Fumble Recovery Data Has Jets, Cowboys at Extremes

[OhSnap]

http://www.footballperspective.com/...a-has-jets-cowboys-at-extremes/#comment-91888

Warning: This article contains some information that me be seen "positive".

 

[dragon_mikal]

That's nice...now if they could just force a punt...

 

[jrumann59]

Wow an article about football with the law of averages mixed in heavily. At least the article wasn't about the chance of recovering a fumble with the sun shining on Uranus.

 

[rkell87]

edit* nvm I read it wrong, did we really fumble 18 times last year? I can only picture dunbar.

 

[hairic]

edit* nvm I read it wrong, did we really fumble 18 times last year? I can only picture dunbar.

Dez multiple, Romo multiple, Murray multiple, Williams twice. That's all I got.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Warning: This article contains some information that me be seen "positive".

That leads to a very scary conclusion for 2014: last year’s Cowboys defense was actually the beneficiary of some good fortune! Lest you forget, the 2013 Dallas defense ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in passing yards, total yards, net yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and yards per carry. It’s difficult to comprehend the potential for disaster for the 2014 defense, then, especially after losing DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher and (presumably) regressing to the mean in fumble recovery data. Dallas ranked “only” 26th in points allowed, in part because of that great fumble recovery rate, so, uh, get ready for Tony Romo to get blamed for a lot of 34-31 losses this year?

That may be seen as "positive" news???

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Yeah, it's really not good news. It means that we were unusually lucky last year in that area... And were still 8-8 in a lousy division.

 

[OhSnap]

That may be seen as "positive" news???

I said it contains SOME positive news- mainly about last year. I think some people are allergic even to small amounts.

 

[arglebargle]

Yeah, it's really not good news. It means that we were unusually lucky last year in that area... And were still 8-8 in a lousy division.

Yeah, postive results equals luck, negative results equals terrible staff/players.

Might it actually have had something to do with an emphasis on turnovers throughout the off season last year? I seem to recall they did focus on that a bit....

 

[burmafrd]

Yeah, postive results equals luck, negative results equals terrible staff/players.

Might it actually have had something to do with an emphasis on turnovers throughout the off season last year? I seem to recall they did focus on that a bit....

and we were still the worst D in football....

 

[Alexander]

The turnover flip was pretty impressive. It does show what Kiffin/Marinelli defenses have proven to be able to do and specifically teach. Players were ripping at the ball a lot, something you rarely have seen in Dallas defenses for a long time.

Like everything else it was evident early in the season but it seemed to taper off near the end. Maybe the defense got discouraged or the new bodies shuffling in and out weren't able to get the same message. But overall, I do not think anyone was complaining that the emphasis on turnovers was a bad thing. In fact, it probably kept things from being a lot worse.

 

[windward]

All in all with the defense being as bad it was, it was a minor miracle we went 8-8. Part of that was due to the offense and part of that was due to luck ( fumble recoveries)

 

[JD_KaPow]

Yeah, postive results equals luck, negative results equals terrible staff/players.

Might it actually have had something to do with an emphasis on turnovers throughout the off season last year? I seem to recall they did focus on that a bit....

No, it wouldn't. Forcing fumbles has some element of skill/effort, but the Cowboys forced a very low number of fumbles last year. Recovering fumbles is largely luck. That doesn't mean it's 50-50: some fumbles are more likely to be recovered by the defense than others (think of a receiver fumbling far downfield where only defenders are likely to be close by). But it's not something you can improve through practice or emphasis in any meaningful way. We know this because teams that recover more fumbles than expected don't tend to repeat that success the next season: they generally regress to the mean. So this isn't good news looking forward.

 

[Future]

All in all with the defense being as bad it was, it was a minor miracle we went 8-8. Part of that was due to the offense and part of that was due to luck ( fumble recoveries)

That completely ignores the wins in which the defense carried the team...Philly, Was, Oak, and even STL to some extent.

 

[TheDude]

http://www.footballperspective.com/...a-has-jets-cowboys-at-extremes/#comment-91888

Warning: This article contains some information that me be seen "positive".

How is it positive? The premise was

• that the defense recovered more fumbles than expected
• The defense in 2013 benefited from the statistical outlier - would have been worse if they weren't "lucky'
• If the defense recovery rate reverts back to the mean, that is a huge potential hit in 2014

 

[AbeBeta]

Statistically this tells us that a) we are almost assured of doing worse % wise this year and much more importantly b) you recover more fumbles if you force more fumbles

Fumble recovery is likely a truly random process. You knock that ball out, it bounces funny, and can end up anywhere.

Forcing fumbles is not a random process. Some teams consistently force more. That's the important issue.

 

[OhSnap]

How is it positive? The premise was

• that the defense recovered more fumbles than expected
• The defense in 2013 benefited from the statistical outlier - would have been worse if they weren't "lucky'
• If the defense recovery rate reverts back to the mean, that is a huge potential hit in 2014

Lead the league in fumble recovery last year. 7% higher than the second team. One of the few positive things about the defense last year. They stated before the season that they wanted more turnovers and they got em which is one of the reasons the number went up NOT luck. The writer attributes luck to the recovery rate on any given year.

 

[guag]

Dez multiple, Romo multiple, Murray multiple, Williams twice. That's all I got.

Don't forget Cluttz/Kluttz/whatever his name is. I think it was the second Skins game.

 

[windward]

That completely ignores the wins in which the defense carried the team...Philly, Was, Oak, and even STL to some extent.

There were those. Getting those turnovers helped in the games our offense wasn't that great. What I'm saying is that fumble recoveries tend to be random over the long term and may indicate a regression to the mean this year. If we recovered fumbles at the average rate, we'd probably have been a 5-6 win team last year.

 

[TheDude]

Lead the league in fumble recovery last year. 7% higher than the second team. One of the few positive things about the defense last year. They stated before the season that they wanted more turnovers and they got em which is one of the reasons the number went up NOT luck. The writer attributes luck to the recovery rate on any given year.

Dallas forced the 6th fewest opponent fumbles at 16, while Philly forced 29 (best). Dallas recovered 81% and Philly recovered 41%. THe league average was 48% (close to 50%).

The premise is forcing fumbles is not luck, recovering is. We weren't very good at forcing them and creating odds. We got dealt 20 and 21 4/5 hands.