2013 Fumble Recovery Data Has Jets, Cowboys at Extremes

[OhSnap]

Honest question: why is recovery rate considered luck? I can easily see defenses emphasizing calling out loose balls and swarming to the ball, how to hold it in a pile, how to attract the attention of officials, how to get down with possession, how to block offenders away from loose balls, whatever, more effectively.

Thats one of the problems I have with some of these regressions and advanced math thats used they don't have a number for the effect a coaching change can have or a different player IMO. I think they're a nice piece to the puzzle but not the last word.

 

[Alexander]

I think they're a nice piece to the puzzle but not the last word.

Like most stats, yes. Part of it, not all of it.

 

[coult44]

Well the Cowboys have only had 2 losing records in the last 10 years. Just because they aint won enough to suit you doesn't technically mean they're losers and just because I wont call them losers doesn't mean I think they've been doing great. It's ok to say good things about your team occasionally IMO. Some of you guys think anyone not saying the team, the owner, and the coach sucks are the same as saying they're happy with the number of games won and thats waaaaaaaay off base. Constantly bashing a team is just taking the easy way out IMO but thats ok I enjoy the debate once in awhile. The ironic thing is my expectations are actually higher than the person calling his team a loser because he already gave up.

I was starting to agree with you until the very end. Can you please be more quiet around here though lol. Just in case my wife hears or sees this... You see, If my wife thinks I gave up already she might make me sale my tickets.... That's not happening . That would be a big fight hahah

 

[OhSnap]

I was starting to agree with you until the very end. Can you please be more quiet around here though lol. Just in case my wife hears or sees this... You see, If my wife thinks I gave up already she might make me sale my tickets.... That's not happening . That would be a big fight hahah

Cool. It's just one of them things I don't understand, don't necessarily mean your wrong and I'm right. Glad to hear yall got tickets.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Honest question: why is recovery rate considered luck? I can easily see defenses emphasizing calling out loose balls and swarming to the ball, how to hold it in a pile, how to attract the attention of officials, how to get down with possession, how to block offenders away from loose balls, whatever, more effectively.

Sure, I could see those things happening too. The answer to your question, "why is recovery rate considered luck?", is simply that you can't find support in the data for it being anything else. If there were teams that were especially good at it, we should be able to identify them, because they would have good recovery rates every year. But we don't see that (I say "we" even though I haven't run the numbers myself). Teams that are good at it one year tend to regress to the mean the next year, and over the league as a whole, the distribution is indistinguishable from randomness.

Could some team/coach discover a way to make his players better at fumble recovery? Possibly. If they could, their recovery rates should get higher and stay higher. It should be obvious in the numbers.

I just looked at Tampa Bay's Super Bowl season. That year (including postseason), with Kiffin and Marinelli and one of the great all-time defenses, they forced 28 fumbles...and recovered 11. So you'll understand my skepticism when people here point to last year's numbers and claim it's a real effect because of the change in defensive staff.

 

[Idgit]

Sure, I could see those things happening too. The answer to your question, "why is recovery rate considered luck?", is simply that you can't find support in the data for it being anything else. If there were teams that were especially good at it, we should be able to identify them, because they would have good recovery rates every year. But we don't see that (I say "we" even though I haven't run the numbers myself). Teams that are good at it one year tend to regress to the mean the next year, and over the league as a whole, the distribution is indistinguishable from randomness.

Could some team/coach discover a way to make his players better at fumble recovery? Possibly. If they could, their recovery rates should get higher and stay higher. It should be obvious in the numbers.

I just looked at Tampa Bay's Super Bowl season. That year (including postseason), with Kiffin and Marinelli and one of the great all-time defenses, they forced 28 fumbles...and recovered 11. So you'll understand my skepticism when people here point to last year's numbers and claim it's a real effect because of the change in defensive staff.

Ok, that's the answer I was looking for. I wasn't aware there was statistically significant data that suggested what we'd seen last season was unusual. If it's out there, that's good enough for me. It does seem like something that could be coached, though, to me.