A Dak thread

[garyo1954]

I agree with most of your post. The only bit I don't agree with is the bit which said part of my post seems disingenuous.

Noted.

 

[SSoup]

gets the benefit of the doubt for having a bad game or two. Dak should not and will not get that when he is still struggling against competent and competitive teams in his second year, while also regressing or not improving in areas.

I don't understand the people who didn't already understand he was going to regress (or merely not improve) in almost all of the important areas. That's how off-the-charts bonkers his 2016 season was. It meant that a guarantee of regression was practically baked into 2017 no matter what.

In what universe did you think he was going to improve upon a TD-to-INT ratio of 5.75 TDs for every 1 INT? A 5-to-1 (closer to 6-to-1) ratio is unspeakably amazing. Tom Brady's only bested that ratio twice, I believe, in a 17-year career. And Tom Brady's career TD-to-INT ratio is 3-to-1, and he's one of the greatest of all time. Brady threw double-digit picks every year of his career until his 8th year, which was the first time he managed a TD-to-INT ratio better than 2-to-1. Peyton didn't do better than a 2-to-1 ratio until his 6th year, and he finished with a career ratio worse than 3-to-1. Throwing 5 (closer to 6) TDs for every 1 INT is insanity. What Dak did in 2016 was so good, repeating (much less improving on it) was almost impossible. Dak was DOOMED to regress here.

Dak averaged 8.0 yards per attempt in 2016. You assumed this would go up? Maybe. Even a big play guy like Romo spent most of his career having seasons that weren't any better than 8.0 yards per attempt. Brady and Peyton, for their careers, have Y/A lower than 8, and neither had a season that busted out of the 7's until almost a decade into their careers. Dak's 8.0 average per attempt as a rookie may well be his peak. Lots of stats from Dak's rookie year figured to be his peak, honestly. Dak was a good bet to regress here too. Not to mention that our receiving game just isn't built to beat everyone deep. And we didn't exactly shake up the receiving situation between last year and this year, did we? If we'd turned over our WR and TE positions with speedier weapons, I'd understand the expectation that we were magically going to automatically be better at throwing deeper, but that's just not the situation. We brought back the same attack as last year largely built on short routes (Witten and Beasley) and physical contact and out-muscling people instead of separating from them (Dez). And we were bringing back a shaken-up o-line, meaning it was reasonable to expect Dak to have even less time to stand back in the pocket than he had last year. How was he supposed to improve on this number?

Dak also had a completion percentage of 67.8 in 2016. Maybe you thought he'd improve here? I mean, it's possible he would have if the o-line hadn't taken a step backwards and if the receiving options took a step forward (and guys like Witten didn't get worse with age, and guys like Beasley didn't get worse due to whatever the hell made Beasley get worse). Of course, expecting both a higher completion percentage and a higher yards per attempt average is confusing. Even if he had improved on the really fine numbers he'd posted in either of those categories last year, it's likely that that improvement would necessarily result in a big step back in the other category. Can you imagine how much worse his completion percentage would be this year if he was throwing deeper more? Or how much worse his yards per attempt would be if he was throwing even more short stuff than he already is?

Of course, he won 13 games last year. Lots of amazing all-timers go their entire careers without a 13-win season. Expecting improvement there is also rough.

Dak had a passer rating of 104.6 last year. Did you assume this would get better? I mean, it could have. In a world where his supporting cast didn't regress around him. But, honestly, Brady and Peyton are both career 90-somethings in passer rating. They didn't crack the hundreds until their 8th and 7th seasons. Romo didn't crack the hundreds until his 8th season in the league (6th as a starter), and even then, he only did better than 104 twice in his career (and one of those doesn't really count since it was 2016 when he only threw 4 passes). Improving on 104.6 was a tall order.

I know people just assume a player is at their worst as a rookie, and that they're supposed to progress from that starting point. But when a guy's rookie season sets the bar so freakishly high, and he's not given an improved o-line or an improved supporting cast, it's not realistic to automatically assume he'll improve in all those areas.

Dak's growing in some areas, and he'll surely improve and be a better player, but his 2016 season was magical and he's unlikely to top a handful of key stats from that year.

Literally the only stats a realistic fan could've assumed he'd improve on are passing yards and perhaps passing TDs. And if not for Beasley's severe regression, he probably would've improved in these two categories easily (as opposed to looking like he'll barely improve on them).

 

[mattjames2010]

I don't understand the people who didn't already understand he was going to regress (or merely not improve) in almost all of the important areas. That's how off-the-charts bonkers his 2016 season was. It meant that a guarantee of regression was practically baked into 2017 no matter what.

In what universe did you think he was going to improve upon a TD-to-INT ratio of 5.75 TDs for every 1 INT? A 5-to-1 (closer to 6-to-1) ratio is unspeakably amazing. Tom Brady's only bested that ratio twice, I believe, in a 17-year career. And Tom Brady's career TD-to-INT ratio is 3-to-1, and he's one of the greatest of all time. Brady threw double-digit picks every year of his career until his 8th year, which was the first time he managed a TD-to-INT ratio better than 2-to-1. Peyton didn't do better than a 2-to-1 ratio until his 6th year, and he finished with a career ratio worse than 3-to-1. Throwing 5 (closer to 6) TDs for every 1 INT is insanity. What Dak did in 2016 was so good, repeating (much less improving on it) was almost impossible. Dak was DOOMED to regress here.

Dak averaged 8.0 yards per attempt in 2016. You assumed this would go up? Maybe. Even a big play guy like Romo spent most of his career having seasons that weren't any better than 8.0 yards per attempt. Brady and Peyton, for their careers, have Y/A lower than 8, and neither had a season that busted out of the 7's until almost a decade into their careers. Dak's 8.0 average per attempt as a rookie may well be his peak. Lots of stats from Dak's rookie year figured to be his peak, honestly. Dak was a good bet to regress here too. Not to mention that our receiving game just isn't built to beat everyone deep. And we didn't exactly shake up the receiving situation between last year and this year, did we? If we'd turned over our WR and TE positions with speedier weapons, I'd understand the expectation that we were magically going to automatically be better at throwing deeper, but that's just not the situation. We brought back the same attack as last year largely built on short routes (Witten and Beasley) and physical contact and out-muscling people instead of separating from them (Dez). And we were bringing back a shaken-up o-line, meaning it was reasonable to expect Dak to have even less time to stand back in the pocket than he had last year. How was he supposed to improve on this number?

Dak also had a completion percentage of 67.8 in 2016. Maybe you thought he'd improve here? I mean, it's possible he would have if the o-line hadn't taken a step backwards and if the receiving options took a step forward (and guys like Witten didn't get worse with age, and guys like Beasley didn't get worse due to whatever the hell made Beasley get worse). Of course, expecting both a higher completion percentage and a higher yards per attempt average is confusing. Even if he had improved on the really fine numbers he'd posted in either of those categories last year, it's likely that that improvement would necessarily result in a big step back in the other category. Can you imagine how much worse his completion percentage would be this year if he was throwing deeper more? Or how much worse his yards per attempt would be if he was throwing even more short stuff than he already is?

Of course, he won 13 games last year. Lots of amazing all-timers go their entire careers without a 13-win season. Expecting improvement there is also rough.

Dak had a passer rating of 104.6 last year. Did you assume this would get better? I mean, it could have. In a world where his supporting cast didn't regress around him. But, honestly, Brady and Peyton are both career 90-somethings in passer rating. They didn't crack the hundreds until their 8th and 7th seasons. Romo didn't crack the hundreds until his 8th season in the league (6th as a starter), and even then, he only did better than 104 twice in his career (and one of those doesn't really count since it was 2016 when he only threw 4 passes). Improving on 104.6 was a tall order.

I know people just assume a player is at their worst as a rookie, and that they're supposed to progress from that starting point. But when a guy's rookie season sets the bar so freakishly high, and he's not given an improved o-line or an improved supporting cast, it's not realistic to automatically assume he'll improve in all those areas.

Dak's growing in some areas, and he'll surely improve and be a better player, but his 2016 season was magical and he's unlikely to top a handful of key stats from that year.

Literally the only stats a realistic fan could've assumed he'd improve on are passing yards and perhaps passing TDs. And if not for Beasley's severe regression, he probably would've improved in these two categories easily (as opposed to looking like he'll barely improve on them).

I'm not talking about his stats. I'm talking footwork, mechanics, and accuracy. He has especially regressed with his footwork.

I don't care about raw statistics or QBR - it's worthless, I actually watch the games so I can analyze.

 

[Captain43Crash]

He doesn't see the field. He made one play down the field against the Giants and that was the touchdown to Witten. The other big plays were short passes for long gains.

In terms of developing as a passer that game showed you nothing.

That game showed you nothing. It showed me Dak is developing as a passer. He had a very good game. Did you conveniently forget Dak’s perfectly placed long ball to Dez which he dropped? He doesn’t see the field. Of course he does.

 

[Captain43Crash]

I'm not talking about his stats. I'm talking footwork, mechanics, and accuracy. He has especially regressed with his footwork.

I don't care about raw statistics or QBR - it's worthless, I actually watch the games so I can analyze.

Can you explain how his foot work has regressed Mr. QB whisperer.

 

[Captain43Crash]

Its not "like" that ......... thats exactly what they want.

Dak could have a perfect QB rating and win the game by 40 points and some poster would talk about his poor mechanics and poor footwork during the game. Worst than that though, 10 other posters would agree with him.

 

[Captain43Crash]

This thread is about Dak, not Dez

Who does Dak throw his passes too? Dez can make Dak look good or bad.

 

[Zman5]

Dak has been ok. He's looked great at times, and lost at others. The concerning thing to me is that his "lost" spell was the better part of a month's worth of games.

One thing I'm sure people have noticed is that even when he's on, its mostly short passes that get turned into long gains. That can work if the QB continues to play within his limitations and the game plan accounts for it, but its still a limitation.

That's a myth. We are one of the worst teams when it comes to YAC. We are 29th in the league. Only the Titans, the Bears and the Bills are worse than us.

Except for the last game, how many times have you seen our receivers get any yards after the catch?

Witt goes down immediately after the catch. Our WRs don't get any separation so they have a defender on them immediate after they catch the ball.

Only time we get a big YAC play is when Zeke takes a screen for a long gain. I think we had one this year. That's about it.

 

[mattjames2010]

Can you explain how his foot work has regressed Mr. QB whisperer.

Stop pretending I'm the only one saying this - I mean, ****, there are weekly threads here where they post Tweets from experts. They broke it down on how Dak has regressed with his footwork and had screenshots. No, I am not going back through the threads to find it just for you.

This has been discussed here over the past few weeks. Keep up with discussions by analysts and people on this board. Dak has a lot to work on this offseason.

EDIT: Actually, even Prescott himself mentioned it earlier in the season after a loss.

http://cdn.espn.go.com/blog/nfceast...ailure-to-rally-cowboys-came-down-to-footwork

“It’s just knowing where I’m going with the ball, having a good idea where I’m going with the ball so that my feet can be in tune with my mind,” Prescott said. “And just being balanced and making those throws.”

 

[WillieBeamen]

Who does Dak throw his passes too? Dez can make Dak look good or bad.

Witten
Hannah
Swaim
T will
Beasley
Dez
Butler
Smith
Morris

 

[Bullflop]

Dak is a year 2 QB who is simply experiencing the growing pains that many young QBs do. His OL isn't up to what it was last year by any means, even though they have noticeably improved lately. Playing against a fairly tougher schedule in 2017 was an unfortunate, although an expected disadvantage to him as well.

Not having Zeke available as his dynamically consistent and proficient partner at RB didn't help either, although admittedly, Alfred Morris is certainly far from resembling an inept replacement. He is blessed as a runner but his blocking and receiving skills just don't compare to those of Ezekiel. Zeke's return should signal an upturn in his level of support.

Evidently, the OL improvement and the return of Zeke in these late stages of the season has aided Dak's cause. In any case, it's much too soon in Dak's career to attach premature and poorly considered labels to him that don't do him justice. Given due time, he should only get better and develop into a more complete performer. His considerable progress in reading defenses serves as stark evidence of that already.

 

[HungryLion]

Dak is a year 2 QB who is simply experiencing the growing pains that many young QBs do. His OL isn't up to what it was last year by any means, even though they have noticeably improved lately. Playing against a fairly tougher schedule in 2017 was an unfortunate, although an expected disadvantage to him as well.

Not having Zeke available as his dynamically consistent and proficient partner at RB didn't help either, although admittedly, Alfred Morris is certainly far from resembling an inept replacement. He is blessed as a runner but his blocking and receiving skills just don't compare to those of Ezekiel. Zeke's return should signal an upturn in his level of support.

Evidently, the OL improvement and the return of Zeke in these late stages of the season has aided Dak's cause. In any case, it's much too soon in Dak's career to attach premature and poorly considered labels to him that don't do him justice. Given due time, he should only get better and develop into a more complete performer. His considerable progress in reading defenses serves as stark evidence of that already.

Dak is a year 2 QB who is simply experiencing the growing pains that many young QBs do. His OL isn't up to what it was last year by any means, even though they have noticeably improved lately. Playing against a fairly tougher schedule in 2017 was an unfortunate, although an expected disadvantage to him as well.

Not having Zeke available as his dynamically consistent and proficient partner at RB didn't help either, although admittedly, Alfred Morris is certainly far from resembling an inept replacement. He is blessed as a runner but his blocking and receiving skills just don't compare to those of Ezekiel. Zeke's return should signal an upturn in his level of support.

Evidently, the OL improvement and the return of Zeke in these late stages of the season has aided Dak's cause. In any case, it's much too soon in Dak's career to attach premature and poorly considered labels to him that don't do him justice. Given due time, he should only get better and develop into a more complete performer. His considerable progress in reading defenses serves as stark evidence of that already.

This is unacceptable. Dak is supposed to be as good as Romo was, after Romo had over a decade of experience in the NFL.

 

[Bullflop]

This is unacceptable. Dak is supposed to be as good as Romo was, after Romo had over a decade of experience in the NFL.

Congrats there, my brutha -- I'd like to praise that as a fine example of well-deserved sarcasm!

 

[SSoup]

I'm not talking about his stats. I'm talking footwork, mechanics, and accuracy. He has especially regressed with his footwork.

Footwork is always one of the quickest casualties when a young QB with mobility is experiencing more pass-rush heat than he's used to. I feel like a lot of that stuff will be cleaned up as he matures and settles.

But let's pretend for a moment that his footwork and mechanics and accuracy can't be worked on or improved (because it's not unheard of for guys to fix their mechanics in practice but go right back to what feels more natural in the heat of the action on gameday). Does this make him inaccurate? Does this make him bad?

In what we're considering a down year for him in terms of accuracy and mechanics (and his o-line and receivers both giving him less help than they did before, not to mention the running game being a less viable, less constant threat to distract the defenses), he's still completing 63% of his passes and throwing 2 TDs for every INT. Are those results that inaccurate QBs manage in any season, much less a down season? Are those results that actually bad QBs manage in a down season?

That's what passes for a bad year from him? Because that's an awfully high floor. It speaks to how good the guy is.

I know people are pissy because Wentz, who everyone in our fanbase wrote off last year as automatically being worse than our mid-round gem, came around and looked like an MVP this year while our guy took a step back (and our win total did too). But Dak is still a good one and we shouldn't lose sight of the positives we have here just because he's not looking as fully-formed or amazing as his rookie season looked in a lot of ways.

Instead of being realistic or reasonable, I've seen this board pitching hissy fits asking Dak to be benched so we can see what we have in Cooper Rush before we need to spend a 1st rounder on a new QB. Or asking if Dak (with his completion percentage in the 60's, mind you) is just a repeat of Tim Tebow, whose completion percentage was in the 40's.

 

[erod]

The best case of all scenarios is that Dak Prescott continues to develop into an elite quarterback that can make all the throws and read defenses like very best. I hope so like we all do. It would mean this franchise is well on its way to annual Super Bowl contention. That's when football is fun.

I just don't see it.

The ceiling for Dak looks to be that of Alex Smith, a very comparable QB in skill set. And if that's the case, let's go get our Pat Mahomes like the Chiefs did.

What Dak has to prove is that he can deliver the ball with accuracy. His arm strength is what it is, which isn't very good. There's no zip to his throws whatsoever, so he's got to be pinpoint, which so far, he isn't. His throws, for the most part, are all over the place, and because they're so unpredictable, it affects his receivers ability to anticipate and help him, and changes what the coaches call to account for him.

Dak knows this, too. That's why he plays Checkdown Charlie every Sunday, just like Alex Smith. He's uncomfortable in the pocket, and has not confidence to throw the ball downfield into windows in a zone defense. Just won't do it. He'll throw slants, fly routes down the sideline, and an assortment of quick outs and hook routes.

Defenses know this. They have him corralled. If receivers don't catch short throws and take it the distance, the passing game is neutralized and castrated.

That's where it is now. I would LOVE to see this change for the better.

But the Cowboys have to open their minds to all possibilities here.

 

[mattjames2010]

Footwork is always one of the quickest casualties when a young QB with mobility is experiencing more pass-rush heat than he's used to. I feel like a lot of that stuff will be cleaned up as he matures and settles.

But let's pretend for a moment that his footwork and mechanics and accuracy can't be worked on or improved (because it's not unheard of for guys to fix their mechanics in practice but go right back to what feels more natural in the heat of the action on gameday). Does this make him inaccurate? Does this make him bad?

In what we're considering a down year for him in terms of accuracy and mechanics (and his o-line and receivers both giving him less help than they did before, not to mention the running game being a less viable, less constant threat to distract the defenses), he's still completing 63% of his passes and throwing 2 TDs for every INT. Are those results that inaccurate QBs manage in any season, much less a down season? Are those results that actually bad QBs manage in a down season?

That's what passes for a bad year from him? Because that's an awfully high floor. It speaks to how good the guy is.

I know people are pissy because Wentz, who everyone in our fanbase wrote off last year as automatically being worse than our mid-round gem, came around and looked like an MVP this year while our guy took a step back (and our win total did too). But Dak is still a good one and we shouldn't lose sight of the positives we have here just because he's not looking as fully-formed or amazing as his rookie season looked in a lot of ways.

Instead of being realistic or reasonable, I've seen this board pitching hissy fits asking Dak to be benched so we can see what we have in Cooper Rush before we need to spend a 1st rounder on a new QB. Or asking if Dak (with his completion percentage in the 60's, mind you) is just a repeat of Tim Tebow, whose completion percentage was in the 40's.

Again, with raw numbers.....

Watch the games, watch the throws he's missing on - yes, it makes him "inaccurate" and has hurt us. And with how poorly Dak played for a stretch, it was reasonable to ask if a benching should occur, and that should STILL be a consideration if he plays poorly against Oakland and Seattle.

How much are you willing to take from Dak with performances he had against the Eagles and Chargers? Eventually you have to say enough is enough and that the regression has gone too far.

 

[Captain43Crash]

Stop pretending I'm the only one saying this - I mean, ****, there are weekly threads here where they post Tweets from experts. They broke it down on how Dak has regressed with his footwork and had screenshots. No, I am not going back through the threads to find it just for you.

This has been discussed here over the past few weeks. Keep up with discussions by analysts and people on this board. Dak has a lot to work on this offseason.

EDIT: Actually, even Prescott himself mentioned it earlier in the season after a loss.

http://cdn.espn.go.com/blog/nfceast...ailure-to-rally-cowboys-came-down-to-footwork

You said, he has regressed, especially his footwork from last year. I disagree with that and I beat Dak would also disagree. The O line, game planning, and in game asjustments have definitely regressed since last year though.

 

[mattjames2010]

You said, he has regressed, especially his footwork from last year. I disagree with that and I beat Dak would also disagree. The O line, game planning, and in game asjustments have definitely regressed since last year though.

There is enough film to show his footwork is causing him more problems this year than last.

This often happens when a QB goes into an offseason focusing on improving one part of his game, that another part starts to regress. Same thing happened to Blake Bortles last year. If I remember correctly, Dak spent most of the offseason working on his throwing mechanics - the issue here is, if the footwork is gone, this impacts the throwing as well.

He'll need to be getting back to basics. Dak is even admitting his footwork is a problem, I don't know what more you need. Dak can "disagree" all he wants while in the same breath saying how his footwork is causing him problems.

 

[pitt33]

Yea because none of our receivers could catch the damn ball.

I played the receiver position and my son was an all-state receiver and played in college. Speaking from experience the most catchable ball is the one that is delivered with a tight spiral. My son was much better than I ever thought about being and he swears by it. I think if you ask any receiver they will say the same thing. The passes that Dez and Beasley dropped had all kinds of wobble to them. I get they are professionals but those passes can easily bounce around in your hands. They're even harder to catch if they are high and not spinning properly.

Aaron Rodgers and Brady have the best spirals in the game. It just makes it so much easier for their receivers to catch them.

 

[CWR]

I played the receiver position and my son was an all-state receiver and played in college. Speaking from experience the most catchable ball is the one that is delivered with a tight spiral. My son was much better than I ever thought about being and he swears by it. I think if you ask any receiver they will say the same thing. The passes that Dez and Beasley dropped had all kinds of wobble to them. I get they are professionals but those passes can easily bounce around in your hands. They're even harder to catch if they are high and not spinning properly.

Aaron Rodgers and Brady have the best spirals in the game. It just makes it so much easier for their receivers to catch them.

Peyton threw ducks like a champ though.