CFZ A Possible Explanation of Why Dak Played Jekyll and Hyde (and Hope I Find)

[T-RO]

Consider the case of two quarterbacks...

Exhibit A: Dak "2022 Jekyll" Prescott...124-164, 76% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 1,463 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT...117.0 Quarterback Rating
Exhibit B: Dak "2022 Hyde" Prescott...121-202, 1,256 Yards, 10 TDs, 11 INT...71.7 Quarterback Rating

The Jekyll numbers would have beaten out Mahomes, Allen, Burrows...every QB in the game, and by no small margin. Exhibit B is Hyde/Zach Wilson territory.

WTH, you ask? Is T-Ro cherry picking games, trying some sleight-of-hand deception?

Permit me to explain:
Exhibit A is the "Jekyll" version of Prescott, the totality of stats when Dak was throwing to Lamb, Pollard, Ferguson, and Hilton.
Exhibit B is Dak and his "Hyde" production, the complete stats when DP threw to Schultz, Gallup, Brown, & Elliott.

I didn't bother to tally the small contributions made by other receivers with few targets.

I've got more to say (of course) but I'll pause for everyone to digest this much...and share thoughts.

 

[T-RO]

Breakdown

 

[CowboyoWales]

Consider the case of two quarterbacks...

Exhibit A: Dak "2022 Jekyll" Prescott...124-164, 76% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 1,463 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT...117.0 Quarterback Rating
Exhibit B: Dak "2022 Hyde" Prescott...121-202, 1,256 Yards, 10 TDs, 11 INT...71.7 Quarterback Rating

The Jekyll numbers would have beaten out Mahomes, Allen, Burrows...every QB in the game, and by no small margin. Exhibit B is Hyde/Zach Wilson territory.

WTH, you ask? Is T-Ro cherry picking games, trying some sleight-of-hand deception?

Permit me to explain:
Exhibit A is the "Jekyll" version of Prescott, the totality of stats when Dak was throwing to Lamb, Pollard, Ferguson, and Hilton.
Exhibit B is Dak and his "Hyde" production, the complete stats when DP threw to Schultz, Gallup, Brown, & Elliott.

I didn't bother to tally the small contributions made by other receivers with few targets.

I've got more to say (of course) but I'll pause for everyone to digest this much...and share thoughts.

Some great work here sir. I'm throwing in my eye test theory.....is there a way of differentiating Dak's QB Rating when Dallas are level (or in the lead) as opposed to being behind (especially by 7 or more pts)? Alternatively, a way of identifying his rating in the 4th Q (as opposed to 1-3).

 

[T-RO]

Some great work here sir. I'm throwing in my eye test theory.....is there a way of differentiating Dak's QB Rating when Dallas are level (or in the lead) as opposed to being behind (especially by 7 or more pts)? Alternatively, a way of identifying his rating in the 4th Q (as opposed to 1-3).

Absolutely. Please post your two questions on the other thread. (you know the one)

I want this thread to focus on how Dak's receivers impact him...his results...and the conclusions we make about him. What does it mean for the future?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Some great work here sir. I'm throwing in my eye test theory.....is there a way of differentiating Dak's QB Rating when Dallas are level (or in the lead) as opposed to being behind (especially by 7 or more pts)? Alternatively, a way of identifying his rating in the 4th Q (as opposed to 1-3).

The stat is called "close and late" and "with(out) lead." There are DBs that track that.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Cooks is going to be a huge addition. The WR room sees him as a guru and I think his impact is underestimated at this point. Brown who he is replacing was a trainwreck as a WR.

Gallup will either heal or he won't. Similarly, Tolbert will improve or he won't. How these guys do really impact the ceiling and floor of this offenses performance. If both of them step up this offense becomes electric. A couple of injuries and these guys break bad and then we have no receivers.

Schultz had horrible YPA but he was gimp for the second half of the season. Dak threw to him anyway. I am hoping that a little more of Parcells idea that throwing the ball away is sometimes a good play this year. Particularly with this defense.

Schoon doesn't really have a high bar to clear in terms of efficiency to replace Schultz. Hopefully Ferguson can maintain his with added usage.

Good OP BTW. What I take from that is there are 8 main targets and half of ours were mediocre to plain bad. Our top 8 is now:

Lamb
Cooks
Pollard
Ferguson
Gallup
Schoonmaker
Tolbert
Vaughn

Throw in contributions from Hendershot, Turpin, and RB3 and I like this stable better than last year.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Great stuff bro @T-RO ! Thanks for the info.

It explains what some of us have been saying: Dak hardly had any weapons to throw to in 2022. The Oline certainly didn't help, either, nor the passing schemes or playcalling.



Cowboys Oline finished 2022 ranked #21 out of 32 overall.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/2022-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-by-team

Cowboys Oline also had the 7th best run block win rate...but the 28th out of 32 in pass blocking win rate. Very likely explains some reasons why Dak struggled when he did.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...aderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

 

[Jipper]

No matter how much anyone dislike Dak - they have to appreciate the thoughtfulness of your approach to the data- well done TRO

 

[T-RO]

I hesitated to group Schultz with the "bad" Dak group.

The Dak-to-Dalton completion rate was pretty good and YPA wasn't terrible. But Dak had five INTs when targeting Dalton this season.

 

[Zekeats]

Bipolar QBs don't win super bowls no matter how you try to justify it. It's not going to happen.

 

[T-RO]

Bipolar QBs don't win super bowls no matter how you try to justify it. It's not going to happen.

The results Dak had with various receiving weapons were certainly biPolar.

You want to say the Quarterback as a player is?

How would you go about trying to prove that Dak is incapably erratic? What are the circumstances, in your mind, that repeatedly bring out Dak-the-QB's darker side? Step up, you have my ear.

 

[Zekeats]

The results Dak had with various receiving weapons were certainly biPolar.

You want to say the Quarterback is?

How would you go about trying to prove that Dak is incapably erratic? What are the circumstances, in your mind, that repeatedly bring out Dak-the-QB's darker side? Step up, you have my ear.

Dude every time we play a real good team he folds. Look at the past 2 playoff games against SF. Here first play of real last drive of the game and this is what he does.......

End of story. Game over.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Bipolar QBs don't win super bowls no matter how you try to justify it. It's not going to happen.

you are a Bash Dak Over Dallas Cult....

 

[T-RO]

Dude every time we play a real good team he folds. Look at the past 2 playoff games against SF. Here first play of real last drive of the game and this is what he does.......

End of story. Game over.

I've watched you a bit this year and learned some things. Whether the topic is Mazi Smith, Dak, Jalyn Hyatt, or Maryann-Ginger...You hold your opinions with zero doubt, and zero openness to consideration. And you eagerly scrap together a few fragments of *potential evidence* and view it as supreme triumph.

"End of story. Game over." Really? What an Interesting comment. Or better described in Monty Python, "What an idiosyncratic performance."

Your posts repeatedly remind me of something my dad used to say of my mother, "She's sometimes right. She's sometimes wrong. But she's never in doubt." My mother had her virtues, but she could lock in with a vice-opinion in half a second with just a tea-spoon of information.

So here's the thing: I'm open to considering that Dak's inconsistencies are a true thing, a concerning thing, perhaps even a fatal flaw. I'm willing to consider it.

But you haven't even provided a good opening statement to the jury. You've belched. Care to try again?

 

[CowboyoWales]

Great stuff bro @T-RO ! Thanks for the info.

It explains what some of us have been saying: Dak hardly had any weapons to throw to in 2022. The Oline certainly didn't help, either, nor the passing schemes or playcalling.



Cowboys Oline finished 2022 ranked #21 out of 32 overall.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/2022-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-by-team

Cowboys Oline also had the 7th best run block win rate...but the 28th out of 32 in pass blocking win rate. Very likely explains some reasons why Dak struggled when he did.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...aderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

Would you say the long pass to Gallup was thrown behind him (indeed Gallup had separation...yep im shocked) , or the next clip/(play) whether Ty Hilton was standing open (in a position to get a 1st Down....clock was 2:50 remaining at the time) and Dak didnt look at him once. Either way, those two plays highlight the 'concern' for me, the composure and awareness in critical scenarios ( KM was probably a contributory factor, but some reliance has to go on the man with the ball in his hands, we'll hopefully see an improvement under different play caller in 2024).....agree the other 4 plays werent his fault.

 

[MyFairLady]

Very interested and thanks for the cool work. When I look at those numbers I would offer the following:

We should have stopped throwing to Fat Zeke years ago.
Throwing the ball to Pollard was underutilized.
Take away our primary (Lamb) and we are toast.

I am not sure if you think this data is "pro" Dak of "anti" Dak. I would say as is the case with most data it can be interpreted any number of ways. I feel as though it tells the tale of what Dak is quite well. When the game is simplified and he can throw to his primary weapon he is very efficient. When teams are good enough take away the primary weapon we are not prepared enough or diverse enough to take advantage. This is why we were such a force in 2016. We had strong run game and a back up plan where Dak would run or throw it away. This is also why we struggle to get over the hump against quality playoff opponents. I do not believe that more threats is the answer. This is the suckers bet. I believe that playing to the strengths of what we have is the play. Unfortunately that will never happen now that our QB is a "super star".

 

[Sydla]

Consider the case of two quarterbacks...

Exhibit A: Dak "2022 Jekyll" Prescott...124-164, 76% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 1,463 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT...117.0 Quarterback Rating
Exhibit B: Dak "2022 Hyde" Prescott...121-202, 1,256 Yards, 10 TDs, 11 INT...71.7 Quarterback Rating

The Jekyll numbers would have beaten out Mahomes, Allen, Burrows...every QB in the game, and by no small margin. Exhibit B is Hyde/Zach Wilson territory.

WTH, you ask? Is T-Ro cherry picking games, trying some sleight-of-hand deception?

Permit me to explain:
Exhibit A is the "Jekyll" version of Prescott, the totality of stats when Dak was throwing to Lamb, Pollard, Ferguson, and Hilton.
Exhibit B is Dak and his "Hyde" production, the complete stats when DP threw to Schultz, Gallup, Brown, & Elliott.

I didn't bother to tally the small contributions made by other receivers with few targets.

I've got more to say (of course) but I'll pause for everyone to digest this much...and share thoughts.

Dude, impressive work.

 

[T-RO]

I am not sure if you think this data is "pro" Dak of "anti" Dak.

Thank you, sincerely. Made my day.

I do not believe that more threats is the answer.

Might not be a realistic answer when we are strong enough to go 12-5 in two, maybe 3 consecutive seasons. Elite WRs are just too much a tasty treat for today's GM's. Gobbled up quick.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Cowboys Oline finished 2022 ranked #21 out of 32 overall.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/2022-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-by-team

Cowboys Oline also had the 7th best run block win rate...but the 28th out of 32 in pass blocking win rate. Very likely explains some reasons why Dak struggled when he did.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...aderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

That first link is misleading. Statmuse, unless it has a simple, specific stat to track, will just list teams. It’s a little bit of a faulty site. Notice how it’s not ranking them by any noted metric.

Here are some other ones:

ESPN has Dallas 6th


PFN has Dallas 5th
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-offensive-lines-nfl-rankings/amp/

FTN has them 8th
https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/50012/nfl-offensive-line-rankings

PFF has them 6th
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-unit-rankings-tiers-2022

TGD has them 9th
https://thegameday.com/nfl/power-rankings/ol/

Lineups has them 5th
https://www.lineups.com/articles/nfl-offensive-line-rankings



While I don’t dispute Dallas had issues on the Oline, so did many teams last year. A big reason why Philly and Dallas had such ballooned sack values. But the Cowboys finished the season right around where their Oline was rated as being (roughly 7th best team in the league, lost in divisional round).

 

[big dog cowboy]

Consider the case of two quarterbacks...

Exhibit A: Dak "2022 Jekyll" Prescott...124-164, 76% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 1,463 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT...117.0 Quarterback Rating
Exhibit B: Dak "2022 Hyde" Prescott...121-202, 1,256 Yards, 10 TDs, 11 INT...71.7 Quarterback Rating

The Jekyll numbers would have beaten out Mahomes, Allen, Burrows...every QB in the game, and by no small margin. Exhibit B is Hyde/Zach Wilson territory.

WTH, you ask? Is T-Ro cherry picking games, trying some sleight-of-hand deception?

Permit me to explain:
Exhibit A is the "Jekyll" version of Prescott, the totality of stats when Dak was throwing to Lamb, Pollard, Ferguson, and Hilton.
Exhibit B is Dak and his "Hyde" production, the complete stats when DP threw to Schultz, Gallup, Brown, & Elliott.

I didn't bother to tally the small contributions made by other receivers with few targets.

I've got more to say (of course) but I'll pause for everyone to digest this much...and share thoughts.

Nice work T-RO!