CFZ A Possible Explanation of Why Dak Played Jekyll and Hyde (and Hope I Find)

[CowboyoWales]

I hesitated to group Schultz with the "bad" Dak group.

The Dak-to-Dalton completion rate was pretty good and YPA wasn't terrible. But Dak had five INTs when targeting Dalton this season.

Is/was Dak-to- Dalton the preferred option, checkdown or designed play.
As you say 5 INT's on such short receptions would be a concern.

 

[jazzcat22]

Bipolar QBs don't win super bowls no matter how you try to justify it. It's not going to happen.

So it is a great thing we don't have one of those QB's then isn't it?

 

[jazzcat22]

Great work @T-RO

So I have to ask it...What were Moore's play calls between Good Dak & Bad Dak....did he try his stupid stuff with Bad Dak more so than Good Dak.
Was it just execution issues. Or was this where they tried those stupid quick side passes that never worked. I know that is a lot to ask. But is just a thought.
Higher % of a successful play with the WR's on Good Dak.

Just my thoughts, but great work as usual.

 

[Jarv]

Bipolar QBs don't win super bowls no matter how you try to justify it. It's not going to happen.

Bi-polar is the term I use too, is there a cure?

 

[jazzcat22]

Bi-polar is the term I use too, is there a cure?

Yes, fans need to remove the Black Hat glasses.

 

[Jarv]

Yes, fans need to remove the Black Hat glasses.

Dak needs to be more consistent, fans didn't play like crap or throw the INTs.

 

[shabazz]

Consider the case of two quarterbacks...

Exhibit A: Dak "2022 Jekyll" Prescott...124-164, 76% completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 1,463 Yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT...117.0 Quarterback Rating
Exhibit B: Dak "2022 Hyde" Prescott...121-202, 1,256 Yards, 10 TDs, 11 INT...71.7 Quarterback Rating

The Jekyll numbers would have beaten out Mahomes, Allen, Burrows...every QB in the game, and by no small margin. Exhibit B is Hyde/Zach Wilson territory.

WTH, you ask? Is T-Ro cherry picking games, trying some sleight-of-hand deception?

Permit me to explain:
Exhibit A is the "Jekyll" version of Prescott, the totality of stats when Dak was throwing to Lamb, Pollard, Ferguson, and Hilton.
Exhibit B is Dak and his "Hyde" production, the complete stats when DP threw to Schultz, Gallup, Brown, & Elliott.

I didn't bother to tally the small contributions made by other receivers with few targets.

I've got more to say (of course) but I'll pause for everyone to digest this much...and share thoughts.

It’s a nice breakdown of the situation. last season was a roller coaster to where we were almost able to predict that every other game Dak and the offense would either be above average or down in the weeds.

Does the level of competition they faced have more to do with it in that the defensive coordinator’s of other teams put a priority in taking Daks favorite weapons off the table with designed scheme?

what we did see was consistent inconsistency…….even in the playoffs

it may speak to Moores inability to counter those moves or a just plain bad WR corp….. or maybe e a little of both

 

[MyFairLady]

Not that I think Cooper Rush is a better option but I would be curious to see a similar break down. I would be willing to bet he also has better numbers when he is throwing to better players.

 

[tyke1doe]

I've watched you a bit this year and learned some things. Whether the topic is Mazi Smith, Dak, Jalyn Hyatt, or Maryann-Ginger...You hold your opinions with zero doubt, and zero openness to consideration. And you eagerly scrap together a few fragments of *potential evidence* and view it as supreme triumph.

"End of story. Game over." Really? What an Interesting comment. Or better described in Monty Python, "What an idiosyncratic performance."

Your posts repeatedly remind me of something my dad used to say of my mother, "She's sometimes right. She's sometimes wrong. But she's never in doubt." My mother had her virtues, but she could lock in with a vice-opinion in half a second with just a tea-spoon of information.

So here's the thing: I'm open to considering that Dak's inconsistencies are a true thing, a concerning thing, perhaps even a fatal flaw. I'm willing to consider it.

But you haven't even provided a good opening statement to the jury. You've belched. Care to try again?

Good description!

 

[America's Cowboy]

That first link is misleading. Statmuse, unless it has a simple, specific stat to track, will just list teams. It’s a little bit of a faulty site. Notice how it’s not ranking them by any noted metric.

Here are some other ones:

ESPN has Dallas 6th


PFN has Dallas 5th
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-offensive-lines-nfl-rankings/amp/

FTN has them 8th
https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/50012/nfl-offensive-line-rankings

PFF has them 6th
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-unit-rankings-tiers-2022

TGD has them 9th
https://thegameday.com/nfl/power-rankings/ol/

Lineups has them 5th
https://www.lineups.com/articles/nfl-offensive-line-rankings



While I don’t dispute Dallas had issues on the Oline, so did many teams last year. A big reason why Philly and Dallas had such ballooned sack values. But the Cowboys finished the season right around where their Oline was rated as being (roughly 7th best team in the league, lost in divisional round).

Wow, you're using Oline ranks for 2023, NOT THE END OF 2022 FOR THE 2022 SEASON.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Would you say the long pass to Gallup was thrown behind him (indeed Gallup had separation...yep im shocked) , or the next clip/(play) whether Ty Hilton was standing open (in a position to get a 1st Down....clock was 2:50 remaining at the time) and Dak didnt look at him once. Either way, those two plays highlight the 'concern' for me, the composure and awareness in critical scenarios ( KM was probably a contributory factor, but some reliance has to go on the man with the ball in his hands, we'll hopefully see an improvement under different play caller in 2024).....agree the other 4 plays werent his fault.

What are you watching? It's clear as day how Tyron Smith got bullrushed right into Dak a split second before Dak got the pass off to Michael Gallup, thus why the pass was thrown behind Gallup. On the next play where you mentioned Ty Hilton, you failed to notice there was a DB within arm's reach right behind him and closing in. A forced throw to Hilton would have led to either the pass being batted down or even worse...intercepted.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Wow, you're using Oline ranks for 2023, NOT THE END OF 2022 FOR THE 2022 SEASON.

Some of them are for the end of 2022, some of them project to 2023 based on 2022 and changes you’ve made to your line. Which is losing Peters who played pretty well and Smith coming back, when he was already back at the end of 2022.

Little bit different than citing Statmuse randomly listing Dallas 21st based on nothing in particular

 

[Strykerscm]

Great stuff bro @T-RO ! Thanks for the info.

It explains what some of us have been saying: Dak hardly had any weapons to throw to in 2022. The Oline certainly didn't help, either, nor the passing schemes or playcalling.



Cowboys Oline finished 2022 ranked #21 out of 32 overall.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/2022-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-by-team

Cowboys Oline also had the 7th best run block win rate...but the 28th out of 32 in pass blocking win rate. Very likely explains some reasons why Dak struggled when he did.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...aderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

We get it. Dak cannot elevate a team and needs top ol, wr, rb and te groups to be a good qb. I think the we need all pro’s everywhere for Dak to succeed subject line could help a lot of people on this site.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Some of them are for the end of 2022, some of them project to 2023 based on 2022 and changes you’ve made to your line. Which is losing Peters who played pretty well and Smith coming back, when he was already back at the end of 2022.

Little bit different than citing Statmuse randomly listing Dallas 21st based on nothing in particular

The Oline stunk in pass protection. That's a fact. It's on tape. The run blocking was good but inconsistent, hence why this Oline got ranked in the late teens to early 20s. That's the main reason Philbin was finally fired. The Oline got worse, not better, during the past 3 years since Philbin became Oline coach. Now he's rightfully gone. Are you saying Philbin shouldn't have been fired and that the Oline is actually better?

 

[Strykerscm]

So it is a great thing we don't have one of those QB's then isn't it?

Trolling is a bad idea for staff.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I hesitated to group Schultz with the "bad" Dak group.

The Dak-to-Dalton completion rate was pretty good and YPA wasn't terrible. But Dak had five INTs when targeting Dalton this season.

I’m shocked it resulted in 5 picks. It didn’t seem like that many.

 

[jazzcat22]

Trolling is a bad idea for staff.

Can't handle the truth?
What is trolling about it?
If anything I responded to a trolling post.

 

[12+88=7]

Three of the players on the bad list are gone, along with Moore and Philbin, only Gallup is left.

Wonder who the scapegoats will be in 2023?

 

[Creeper]

I am not sure what your analysis means. CeeDee was on the field and Hyde was throwing to other receivers, wasn't he? We cannot just ignore that some of Dak's worst INTs were when he was throwing to CeeDee.

To me Good Dak has always been the Dak who sees the entire field and finds the open receivers, makes quick decision, and is decisive releasing the football. Bad Dak is the guy who hesitates, throws the ball late, and doesn't see guys running wide open down the field. Guys like Ferguson, CeeDee, Pollard, and Hilton were on the field for some of Dak's worst games.

If you want to argue that Bad Dak is the result of his OL not holding up against better DLs, I can almost buy that. I will listen to that argument at least. But watching Good Dak vs Bad DAk I believe the difference is mental, it is in Dak's head.

 

[dr_hefley]

Breakdown

Dude, that's some darn fine work. Thanks for putting that together.