A realistic look at our playoff hopes

[Bobhaze]

There is no question the Cowboys have gone from embarrassingly bad to a potential playoff team in the last month. Our defense has gone from “cover your eyes” bad to above average - at least in the last 3 games. Our offense has been top shelf almost all year and looks more and more lethal as the season progresses.

In the midst of the understandable excitement of this team’s improvement, there remains certain realities this team faces about making the playoffs. With 5 games to play, here are the tough challenges in the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs:

• Currently, the Cowboys are 1.5 games behind the suddenly staggering egirls which makes the division still within reach unless the egirls regain their footing. It’s possible their fade continues but it’s also possible they recover. (They have the commanders twice in the next 5 games)
• The teams ahead of us in the wild card race in Week 13 - the rams, 49ers, panthers, seabags - all needed to lose and unfortunately they all won.
• In the wild card race, the challenge appears tougher than it might be winning the division.

Here are the Current NFC Playoff Standings:

1. Chicago Bears (9-3) NFC North Leader
2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3) NFC West Leader
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) NFC EastLeader
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-5) NFC South Leader
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-3) WC 1
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) WC 2
7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) WC 3

At 6-5-1, the Cowboys are currently 2.5 games behind the three teams ahead of them in the wild card hunt. Not impossible but we are going to need at least one of those WC teams ahead of us to seriously fade.

All the Cowboys can do is win their remaining games and hope for some help. The margins with 5 games left are razor thin. This Thursday’s game vs the lions is obviously huge because Det at 7-5 is also fighting for a playoff spot.

As we head down the stretch for the last 5 games, what a fun ride lays ahead. The NFL is the most unpredictable league in pro sports so don’t look at any team’s schedule and predict wins and losses. Anything can happen.

 

[WillieBeamen]

I think our biggest obstacle is winning out.

If we do that, I feel good about getting in

 

[Bobhaze]

I think our biggest obstacle is winning out.

If we do that, I feel good about getting in

That’s all we can do anyway is win our games and hope for help. If we win out, the egirls need to win 4 of 5. If we lose 1, they only have to win 3 of 5, and so on.

We have a shot. But the margin for error is razor thin.

 

[Jipper]

win against detroit and hope philly loses to Sd...then its on like donkey kong

 

[gtb1943]

I think our biggest obstacle is winning out.

If we do that, I feel good about getting in

to win out means winning 8 in a row and some of those are against very good teams and others against division rivals

that is a very high hill to climb

 

[Jstopper]

There is no question the Cowboys have gone from embarrassingly bad to a potential playoff team in the last month. Our defense has gone from “cover your eyes” bad to above average - at least in the last 3 games. Our offense has been top shelf almost all year and looks more and more lethal as the season progresses.

In the midst of the understandable excitement of this team’s improvement, there remains certain realities this team faces about making the playoffs. With 5 games to play, here are the tough challenges in the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs:

• Currently, the Cowboys are 1.5 games behind the suddenly staggering egirls which makes the division still within reach unless the egirls regain their footing. It’s possible their fade continues but it’s also possible they recover. (They have the commanders twice in the next 5 games)
• The teams ahead of us in the wild card race in Week 13 - the rams, 49ers, panthers, seabags - all needed to lose and unfortunately they all won.
• In the wild card race, the challenge appears tougher than it might be winning the division.

Here are the Current NFC Playoff Standings:

1. Chicago Bears (9-3) NFC North Leader
2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3) NFC West Leader
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) NFC EastLeader
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-5) NFC South Leader
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-3) WC 1
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) WC 2
7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) WC 3

At 6-5-1, the Cowboys are currently 2.5 games behind the three teams ahead of them in the wild card hunt. Not impossible but we are going to need at least one of those WC teams ahead of us to seriously fade.

All the Cowboys can do is win their remaining games and hope for some help. The margins with 5 games left are razor thin. This Thursday’s game vs the lions is obviously huge because Det at 7-5 is also fighting for a playoff spot.

As we head down the stretch for the last 5 games, what a fun ride lays ahead. The NFL is the most unpredictable league in pro sports so don’t look at any team’s schedule and predict wins and losses. Anything can happen.

The part that keeps being overlooked is that the teams ahead of us all have to play each other. They will give each other the losses we need. As long as we win out it’s almost impossible that we miss the playoffs

 

[gtb1943]

The part that keeps being overlooked is that the teams ahead of us all have to play each other. They will give each other the losses we need. As long as we win out it’s almost impossible that we miss the playoffs

true IF we win out which is a lot harder than those saying it want to admit

 

[ShortRound]

What a crazy season so far. It’s certainly been entertaining to watch. Hoping we stay healthy and some luck down the stretch.

 

[DasTex]

If they win out, they'll win the division.
If they lose to Detroit - chances are likely over, would need a major help
If they lose to the Chargers - they'll have a chance but will take a lot of help.

It's crazy, there has been plenty of times since the playoff expansion that teams have gotten in with a .500 or barely above record. Now your talking about a potential 11 win team needing help to get in.

 

[WillieBeamen]

win out and hope for either:

Chargers and Bills beat the Eagles

Or

Colts and Seahawks beat the 9ers

 

[Bobhaze]

If they win out, they'll win the division.
If they lose to Detroit - chances are likely over, would need a major help
If they lose to the Chargers - they'll have a chance but will take a lot of help.

It's crazy, there has been plenty of times since the playoff expansion that teams have gotten in with a .500 or barely above record. Now your talking about a potential 11 win team needing help to get in.

Well that’s also assuming the egirls lose two. If we win out we could be in or we could also fall short. Depends on more than just what we do.

Unfortunately we do not completely control our playoff destiny

 

[TNCowboy]

SF will lose some more games, or SEA, CHI, GB will. If WAS wasn't so bad, I'd like the Eagles odds to lose at least 2. With all the games contenders have against each other and the better AFC teams, the opportunity will probably be there.

But all of that requires Dallas winning out, and that's just not very realistic. Truth is our playoff chances likely died with the putrid loss to the Cardinals. The fruits of this late season surge will likely be a worse draft pick and a team not an inch closer to the Super Bowl.

 

[TNCowboy]

win out and hope for either:

Chargers and Bills beat the Eagles

Or

Colts and Seahawks beat the 9ers

The 49ers have the Bears also. They've got a tough row to hoe.

 

[Bobhaze]

SF will lose some more games, or SEA, CHI, GB will. If WAS wasn't so bad, I'd like the Eagles odds to lose at least 2. With all the games contenders have against each other and the better AFC teams, the opportunity will probably be there.

But all of that requires Dallas winning out, and that's just not very realistic. Truth is our playoff chances likely died with the putrid loss to the Cardinals. The fruits of this late season surge will likely be a worse draft pick and a team not an inch closer to the Super Bowl.

The bigger hope for me is the potential for a better 2026. So many NFL success stories actually depend a ton on the decisions and moves made in the off-season.

IF…IF we have a good off-season next year adding more talent on defense, add some key FAs or smart trades, we could make a serious run again. A lot of IFs.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Fact that we lost against the bears and Panthers doesn't help

 

[DasTex]

Well that’s also assuming the egirls lose two. If we win out we could be in or we could also fall short. Depends on more than just what we do.

Unfortunately we do not completely control our playoff destiny

Understood - I'm just going by the thought that the egirls will lose 2 more. That teams a mess

 

[5Stars]

Fact that we lost against the bears and Panthers doesn't help

What a profound statement. You are so smart.

 

[Jarntt]

I think our biggest obstacle is winning out.

If we do that, I feel good about getting in

This is how feel as well. And if we do win this week, I think Thursday night will be the last time all year we will be an underdog. If we win 11 games I think we will be in. If we win 10 or less I think we will be out.

 

[Bobhaze]

Understood - I'm just going by the thought that the egirls will lose 2 more. That teams a mess

Don’t disagree with you. But things change quickly in the NFL. We are certainly an example of that. Just when we think we know what’s gonna happen….we don’t.

 

[gtb1943]

If they win out, they'll win the division.
If they lose to Detroit - chances are likely over, would need a major help
If they lose to the Chargers - they'll have a chance but will take a lot of help.

It's crazy, there has been plenty of times since the playoff expansion that teams have gotten in with a .500 or barely above record. Now your talking about a potential 11 win team needing help to get in.

in the 16 game format 1978 to 2021 there was only one 11 game winner that did not make the playoffs
even with an extra game, winning 11 and not making it is very unlikely