A reality of why Prescott will get extended

[Steve007]

Because as long as he is here, we are good for 9-12 wins. Being a playoff team is that all that has mattered to the organization for the past 20 years. The Jones arent going to give up a safe playoff birth for an unknown. Its not imprortant how far we go, its just getting there and maintaining a degree of national relevance.

"Good enough" is why we hired McCarthy without giving anyone else a serious interview. "Good enough " is why McCarthy is still here after another playoff failure. Thats also what Prescott means to this organization. I believe those that think there is a chance he wont get extended will be very disappointed. We will have Prescott until we cant win 10 games with him anymore

The jones wont make bold moves. Your right they will keep things as they are. Jerry was upset after the loss, but next season he will be all smiles and passing out the Kool-Aid.

 

[ben24]

Because as long as he is here, we are good for 9-12 wins. Being a playoff team is that all that has mattered to the organization for the past 20 years. The Jones arent going to give up a safe playoff birth for an unknown. Its not imprortant how far we go, its just getting there and maintaining a degree of national relevance.

"Good enough" is why we hired McCarthy without giving anyone else a serious interview. "Good enough " is why McCarthy is still here after another playoff failure. Thats also what Prescott means to this organization. I believe those that think there is a chance he wont get extended will be very disappointed. We will have Prescott until we cant win 10 games with him anymore

Honestly, I think it's totally delusional to think that a QB like Dak will guarantee you win 9-12 games a year no matter what kind of talent you surround him with. There are only ever 2-3 QBs at the very most who you can be confident in them winning that many games even if they are surrounded by mediocre talent. Those top 2-3 guys are honestly the only guys that you should even consider spending even close to 15% of your total cap on (the stats suggest spending that much even on those absolute top level guys will rarely see you achieve any sort of success).

People might take that as an insult to Dak but you just need to look at how many 7 or 8 win seasons Drew Brees had while he was in his peak to know that there's no guarantee the Cowboys will have a winning record with Dak. Even if you think Dak is just as good as peak Brees was then you have to admit that Cowboys could easily have a losing season with Dak if the talent around him isn't right. From that generation only absolute peak Brady, Manning or Rodgers were capable of dragging an average roster to 10 wins.

To me, I feel like the absolute floor with a QB like Dak is probably around 5 wins a season which is actually a lot better than the floor for most QBs in the league. It is possible that I'm totally underestimating Dak and he is capable of dragging a weak team to a winning record. Unfortunately, though, we still haven't seen Dak have to perform with minimal talent around him so it's hard to judge just how much he can actually carry a poor team. At the time I thought we caught a major break when we suffered a horrendous amount of injuries in 2020 during the year our QB went down which meant we got a good draft pick and got our injury bad luck out of the way all at once. In hindsight, though, it would've been good to see how Dak performed that year with essentially just a bunch of backups. From what I've seen I don't think he would've carried us far but if he actually did take us to the playoffs that year I could perhaps understand giving him a massive contract. Shame we didn't get to see how he could perform without all that talent around him

 

[darthseinfeld]

Honestly, I think it's totally delusional to think that a QB like Dak will guarantee you win 9-12 games a year no matter what kind of talent you surround him with. There are only ever 2-3 QBs at the very most who you can be confident in them winning that many games even if they are surrounded by mediocre talent. Those top 2-3 guys are honestly the only guys that you should even consider spending even close to 15% of your total cap on (the stats suggest spending that much even on those absolute top level guys will rarely see you achieve any sort of success).

People might take that as an insult to Dak but you just need to look at how many 7 or 8 win seasons Drew Brees had while he was in his peak to know that there's no guarantee the Cowboys will have a winning record with Dak. Even if you think Dak is just as good as peak Brees was then you have to admit that Cowboys could easily have a losing season with Dak if the talent around him isn't right. From that generation only absolute peak Brady, Manning or Rodgers were capable of dragging an average roster to 10 wins.

To me, I feel like the absolute floor with a QB like Dak is probably around 5 wins a season which is actually a lot better than the floor for most QBs in the league. It is possible that I'm totally underestimating Dak and he is capable of dragging a weak team to a winning record. Unfortunately, though, we still haven't seen Dak have to perform with minimal talent around him so it's hard to judge just how much he can actually carry a poor team. At the time I thought we caught a major break when we suffered a horrendous amount of injuries in 2020 during the year our QB went down which meant we got a good draft pick and got our injury bad luck out of the way all at once. In hindsight, though, it would've been good to see how Dak performed that year with essentially just a bunch of backups. From what I've seen I don't think he would've carried us far but if he actually did take us to the playoffs that year I could perhaps understand giving him a massive contract. Shame we didn't get to see how he could perform without all that talent around him

Im not saying 9-12 is his floor in any circumstance. Im saying thats his floor with what we have. His floor with what we have is basically 2019, which was an 8-8 year

Excellent post though. I agree with most of your points here

 

[ben24]

Im not saying 9-12 is his floor in any circumstance. Im saying thats his floor with what we have. His floor with what we have is basically 2019, which was an 8-8 year

Excellent post though. I agree with most of your points here

Fair enough. I just don't think that the overall talent we have now will last long if we extend Dak on a big deal unless we strike gold in the draft this year. If Jerry honestly believes that just signing Dak will continue to keep us relevant going forward regardless of how much he pays him then he is way more delusional than even I thought he was

 

[darthseinfeld]

Fair enough. I just don't think that the overall talent we have now will last long if we extend Dak on a big deal unless we strike gold in the draft this year. If Jerry honestly believes that just signing Dak will continue to keep us relevant going forward regardless of how much he pays him then he is way more delusional than even I thought he was

You are probably looking at a 2 to 3 year window

 

[Asklesko]

With Dak, we will always be regular season champions. That's why he's so important.

 

[Clove]

I'll say this again. If you resign him, it has to be without the no trade clause. I could see them signing him to a new contract without the no trade clause today, and trading him tomorrow.

 

[HMJYay]

I guarantee you when Tyron Smith isn’t signed and ZM retires and Dak doesn’t have 3 hours to throw the ball, they are not guaranteed 9 wins…. Cooper Rush was 4-1, remember…. Also don’t expect this defense to be top 5 in TOs annually.. remember last year, the defense held the 49ers to a FG after Dak’s first garbage pick..

If anything, CeeDee showed he was the offense against GB. GB shut him down and Dak looked as mediocre as usual..

I guarantee you when Tyron Smith isn’t signed and ZM retires and Dak doesn’t have 3 hours to throw the ball, they are not guaranteed 9 wins…. Cooper Rush was 4-1, remember…. Also don’t expect this defense to be top 5 in TOs annually.. remember last year, the defense held the 49ers to a FG after Dak’s first garbage pick..

If anything, CeeDee showed he was the offense against GB. GB shut him down and Dak looked as mediocre as usual..

Exactly. This team is going to get worse. And the defense can’t possibly continue to be the top scoring defense and top 5 in TO’s like they have the last 3 years. The problem is Jerry is going to give Dak a huge contract right before they have a bad to mediocre regular season. Lol

 

[Hadenough]

Because as long as he is here, we are good for 9-12 wins. Being a playoff team is that all that has mattered to the organization for the past 20 years. The Jones arent going to give up a safe playoff birth for an unknown. Its not imprortant how far we go, its just getting there and maintaining a degree of national relevance.

"Good enough" is why we hired McCarthy without giving anyone else a serious interview. "Good enough " is why McCarthy is still here after another playoff failure. Thats also what Prescott means to this organization. I believe those that think there is a chance he wont get extended will be very disappointed. We will have Prescott until we cant win 10 games with him anymore

I don't know how many more crushing defeats Prescott is gonna take. It's not going to take much for fans to finally start booing him and throwing stuff on the field.
It can't come soon enough!

 

[Cowboyny]

Because as long as he is here, we are good for 9-12 wins. Being a playoff team is that all that has mattered to the organization for the past 20 years. The Jones arent going to give up a safe playoff birth for an unknown. Its not imprortant how far we go, its just getting there and maintaining a degree of national relevance.

"Good enough" is why we hired McCarthy without giving anyone else a serious interview. "Good enough " is why McCarthy is still here after another playoff failure. Thats also what Prescott means to this organization. I believe those that think there is a chance he wont get extended will be very disappointed. We will have Prescott until we cant win 10 games with him anymore

Biggest tell will be if they extend his contract, if they don’t you know he is tied with MM. However, I agree with you and we should expect an extension.

 

[darthseinfeld]

Biggest tell will be if they extend his contract, if they don’t you know he is tied with MM. However, I agree with you and we should expect an extension.

On the other hand, he would be an established QB for a new coach. Next year if we move on from both McCarthy and Prescott we might not have the capital to get a new franchise QB. That might not be enticing for the top end candidates. IMO the best way to move on from Prescott would be a bridge year with Lance in 2025 while you try to get an extra #1 in 2026 by moving down in the first

 

[plymkr]

It’s very hard to argue against this. I agree w all of your reasoning. When do you believe he gets extended ? Prior to next season ?

In February or before March, or whenever he can by league rules.

 

[Cowboyny]

On the other hand, he would be an established QB for a new coach. Next year if we move on from both McCarthy and Prescott we might not have the capital to get a new franchise QB. That might not be enticing for the top end candidates. IMO the best way to move on from Prescott would be a bridge year with Lance in 2025 while you try to get an extra #1 in 2026 by moving down in the first

The drop off from Dak to Lance good be significant. You either trade him now and take on the dead money and get compensation or leave the contract alone and his deal is off the books in another yr. That would be your scenario. If they do extend him, going to have to blow up the cap to shed the contract.

 

[darthseinfeld]

The drop off from Dak to Lance good be significant. You either trade him now and take on the dead money and get compensation or leave the contract alone and his deal is off the books in another yr. That would be your scenario. If they do extend him, going to have to blow up the cap to shed the contract.

Problem is they cant trade Dak unless he really wants to go. It can happen, but its very unlikely he agrees to a trade. He'll just take his 60 million and sign a huge deal when he gets cut

 

[SlammedZero]

Obviously I want to move on as much as the person reading this, but I would be OK with Dak as a bridge while developing a QB.....at the right price. Of course we know that won't happen, but he is not worth being paid the highest in the league. Mahomes is in the AFC Championship game for the 6th time in his 6 year career, yet Dak and/or his agent believe he is worth more than that?? It's laughable. Dood cannot even win a playoff game. (I say that loosely, as yes, I know he beat Seattle and Tampa, whoopty-do)

 

[Jake]

I'll say this again. If you resign him, it has to be without the no trade clause. I could see them signing him to a new contract without the no trade clause today, and trading him tomorrow.

I don't see that happening at all. Dak wouldn't agree to that and the Jones boys would eventually cave again.

 

[Cowboyny]

Problem is they cant trade Dak unless he really wants to go. It can happen, but it’s very unlikely he agrees to a trade. He'll just take his 60 million and sign a huge deal when he gets cut

I don’t think it’s actual cash, but rather his cap hit, but you are right.