AdamJT13 v. The Horde, Part 2

[DFWJC]

That's exactly what he's saying. Rushing has no correlation to winning. Period.

Yet, there is not 1 example of a team winning by passing 100% of the time. Every win has some percentage of rush attempts. So rushing is actually 100% correlated to winning. Now it comes down to efficiency and quantity of both passing and rushing. Both are important, both contribute to winning, both feed into the success of each other.

He doesn't believe that. He hasn't found the stat that explains that so to him it isn't important. But real NFL coaches and front offices do believe it. Otherwise they would never run the ball.

No he isn't, come on.
He never once has said you don't need to run--which is what the poster was implying by saying get rid of the RB altogether.
He simply says that passing better than your opponent statistically correlates with winning more than other things.

I always stay away from the merits of this topic.
But that is what he's saying.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

He simply says that passing better than your opponent statistically correlates with winning more than other things.

In all fairness, that's not all he says. He has said that running attempts is what's important and also there is little to no correlation to running efficiency and passing efficiency. If all he said was passing better is more important, there would be near 100% agreement.

 

[Sarge]

It's amazing the number of posters that disagree with Adam and don't even understand REALLY what he is saying.

HAVING SAID THAT, WATCH THE NAMECALLING AND TROLLING OR THE THREAD WILL BE CLOSED.

 

[Plankton]

I'm not sure which thread is more embarrassing - this thread, or part 1.

 

[Omegasupreme]

In all fairness, that's not all he says. He has said that running attempts is what's important and also there is little to no correlation to running efficiency and passing efficiency. If all he said was passing better is more important, there would be near 100% agreement.

A lot of this article about Parcells and Bledsoe could easily be said of The Garrett-offense Romo:

http://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/13/sports/pro-football-statistics-don-t-say-it-all.html

But I think this part is most poignant

Parcells agreed. "When you throw the ball three times as much as you've run," he said, "you're generally losing."

 

[Yakuza Rich]

A lot of this article about Parcells and Bledsoe could easily be said of The Garrett-offense Romo:

http://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/13/sports/pro-football-statistics-don-t-say-it-all.html

But I think this part is most poignant

It's not about pass attempts or even yards. It's about efficiency of passing. Where I have had my issues with throwing the ball a lot with Romo is that his passing becomes less efficient after 35 throws and he's extremely efficient on throws 20-35.

What it comes down to, in terms of winning, is that the team that passes the ball more efficiently will have a very high likelihood of winning.

And Adam is right on there being no correlation between running efficiency and passing efficiency. However, it's a macro view of correlation. Just because there's no macro correlation of two variables (i.e. the league in general), it doesn't mean that there is no correlation of those variables on a micro level (a particular team).

When there's no correlation, you might get a few teams that do indeed pass the ball more efficiently when they run the ball more efficiently. But, when you look at all of the data points (teams and their passing and running)...you'll get teams that may pass the ball worse when they run it better or show change when their running game improves and you can get some outliers as well.

So the real debate about all of this should be if running the ball more effectively will improve our passing game. When we get into drafting EE at #4 then there are other subsets of arguments such as how much he will have to produce, comparisons of production between EE vs. DMC to make the pick worthy, the depreciation value of RB's, etc.






YR

 

[khiladi]

How many of those successful passing attempts were built off play-action, meaning the threat of the run?