This has been proven wrong recently. It’s been shown the success of PA has very little correlation with a good running game. The Rams ran PA consistently with no running game and Goff throwing the ball and were incredibly effective. The Browns, on the other hand, have a very good run game and can’t get anything going with PA.
I would suggest that this is were stats and analytics can be off.
I know the NFL is becoming more analytics based but I still feel it will turn back at some point. It is not like baseball.. a) there are more variables on a football field, b) some metrics in football are impossible to measure accurately and c) football does NOT produce enough raw data to make some analysis statistically relevant.
So if we look at baseball.. say a batter has 500 at bats for a season.. when we look at his tendencies and data.. there would be more reliability in the analysis. Potentially out of those 500, he faced 1-3 on 120 occasions.. and he hit 20 of those.. and of those 20 there were 5 HR. So from that we can derive a 'clutch' hitting rating, or see what pitches he likes etc etc. Now each of those at bats may be against different pitchers and at different parks.. but they all are played on the same size diamond.. the batter strike zone is the same etc etc.. so there is more consistency.
Now we go to football.. a WR1 will catch an average of 80 balls across a whole season. They will most likely run different routes from most of those catches. They will most likely be on a different defender for every single catch.. then there is wind factors.. there is defence strength, there is pressure on the quarterback, there is down and distance to consider. Needless to say.. you could look at ALL 80 of a WR's catches and each one, for STATISTICAL purposes, would be different.
So football is working hard on finding statistical meaning and analytics.. and they will find some. However I believe there will be a correction. Right now the analytics are saying 'go for it on 4th' but we are seeing more and more 4th downs not being converted. So potentially (and I don't know clearly) the analytics in four years might start suggesting you are better NOT to go for it on 4th and short in those same situations.
So the stats are telling them there is no correlation between run strength and PA? That might be 100% true.. but that might be because of how teams execute the PA, the defence they attempt the PA against.. the strength of the scheme, the strength of the QB, the situation it is used it, the speed at which the DC identifies the PA tendencies, how alert the CBs and LBs are to the PA.
Goff is great with PA because he is FAST to release the ball and ACCURATE. So EVEN IF the defence doesn't 'bite' on the PA.. he can find an open receiver. Browns struggle with PA because their QB play is poor. So even if the defence 'bites' on the PA.. Mayfield misses the pass or the receiver drops the catch.. and then it looks like it was a dud play.
So I know the shiny stats are right now telling you that years of accepted logical about PA are wrong.. I just happen to know how statistics work. Play Action works because it gets the QB in motion (which has been shown to be more effective - roll outs, quick plays, boot legs, PA etc etc), it forces the defence to react and it takes pressure out of your QBs eyes. However for PA to work effectively.. you either need a run threat or a very very good QB.