Am I alone? I believe this team will go to the SB if we stay healthy

[AsthmaField]

http://i465.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr16/KJJ100/images_zps45uemvkp.jpg

 

[AsthmaField]

Don't forget Hayden.

Very true. Thornton is a much, much, much better player than Hayden. That isn't a position that is a big playmaker in Marinelli's defense, but the push he will get and the pressure he puts on the QB will still be noticeable, IMO.

 

[Joe Realist]

I expect you to go all mea culpa once they win the division

That would be great. I just don't see it. Last game in Philly for the division and you know how that goes.

 

[jobberone]

Any of the three team passer ratings (offense, defense, differential) are good indicators of team success. The win correlation of the defensive stat is slightly weaker than that of the offensive stat, which in turn is slightly weaker than the differential. Going back 5 seasons, here are the average number of wins among the top 5 teams in each category (offense, defense, and differential):

2015
OPR 11 wins
DPR 12 wins
DIF 12 wins

2014
OPR 12 wins
DPR 9 wins
DIF 12 wins

2013
OPR 11 wins
DPR 10 wins
DIF 12 wins

2012
OPR 11 wins
DPR 10 wins
DIF 12 wins

2011
OPR 12 wins
DPR 11 wins
DIF 13 wins

5-yr avg
OPR 11 wins
DPR 10 wins
DIF 12 wins

What is its predictive value?

 

[School]

That would be great. I just don't see it. Last game in Philly for the division and you know how that goes.

Does it go like 2009?

 

[percyhoward]

What is its predictive value?

I don't know the raw number (correlation coefficient). I'm just looking at how it performs vs. other passing stats. Here it is compared to yards and sacks (using 2015's rankings). According to those stats, a defense that ranked about 8th averaged just one more win than a defense that ranked about 30th.

Sack %
1st-5th: 11 wins
6th-10th: 8 wins
11th-16th: 9 wins
17th-22nd: 8 wins
23rd-27th: 6 wins
28th-32nd: 7 wins

Passing Yards Allowed
1st-5th: 8 wins
6th-10th: 8 wins
11th-16th: 9 wins
17th-22nd: 8 wins
23rd-27th: 7 wins
28th-32nd: 7 wins


Passer rating has the 8th-ranked team with 10 wins, and the 30th-ranked team with 5.

Defensive Passer Rating
1st-5th: 12 wins
6th-10th: 10 wins
11th-16th: 9 wins
17th-22nd: 7 wins
23rd-27th: 6 wins
28th-32nd: 5 wins

 

[jobberone]

I don't know the raw number (correlation coefficient). I'm just looking at how it performs vs. other passing stats. Here it is compared to yards and sacks (using 2015's rankings). According to those stats, a defense that ranked about 8th averaged just one more win than a defense that ranked about 30th.

Sack %
1st-5th: 11 wins
6th-10th: 8 wins
11th-16th: 9 wins
17th-22nd: 8 wins
23rd-27th: 6 wins
28th-32nd: 7 wins

Passing Yards Allowed
1st-5th: 8 wins
6th-10th: 8 wins
11th-16th: 9 wins
17th-22nd: 8 wins
23rd-27th: 7 wins
28th-32nd: 7 wins


Passer rating has the 8th-ranked team with 10 wins, and the 30th-ranked team with 5.

Defensive Passer Rating
1st-5th: 12 wins
6th-10th: 10 wins
11th-16th: 9 wins
17th-22nd: 7 wins
23rd-27th: 6 wins
28th-32nd: 5 wins

My reason for the question! My guess is the top teams have a top defense overall esp up front that is aiding and abetting the back pass defense. Just a guess but there has to be a reason you get a separation of the top teams vs all the rest with that stat. And whenever you look at wins you are going to have to bring in the offense and STs into the equation. You can have a top defense and an offense with an ineffective QB and you're looking at some of Campo's teams who just couldn't win enough to matter but were generally in every game.

 

[DandyDon1722]

I'll tell you what felt different the 110-115 degree temps we were having around Los Angeles yesterday.

Malibu never gets that hot and while LA was hot for a few days it does cool off at night and the humidity is always low and now it's back to the 80's. If you want heat try Florida where everyday in the summer is 95 with 90% humidity with a storm every afternoon around 4:00 and it's not like it cools off after the rain. Nights get down all the way to the high 70's but with the humidity the heat index is still in the 80's. You walk outside for ten minutes and you're soaked with sweat.

I grew up in Buffalo, went to college in FL and live in LA and I will never, ever complain about the heat (or weather in general) in CA and I will never ever live in the southeast again. It's miserable.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Did anyone say anything remotely close to "guaranteed to have an injury free season."?

You seem to argue with yourself a lot in your posts.

2014 was a relatively injury free season save for Sean Lee. Many like to look at that season and think we can be right back there with the run game back up to par. They are assuming the injuries are mild like that season then. It was one of the top reasons we had such a great year. If that fact is overlooked, then the theory holds no water. Maybe my arguments are just too complicated for you. Ill try to be more simple next time so you can keep up.

 

[School]

2014 was a relatively injury free season save for Sean Lee. Many like to look at that season and think we can be right back there with the run game back up to par. They are assuming the injuries are mild like that season then. It was one of the top reasons we had such a great year. If that fact is overlooked, then the theory holds no water. Maybe my arguments are just too complicated for you. Ill try to be more simple next time so you can keep up.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-adjusted-games-lost

The Cowboys were ranked 19th 2014 in adjusted games lost. In other words they were more affected by injuries than the average team. In fact, it was a decline, in a bad way, from 2013.

 

[percyhoward]

My reason for the question! My guess is the top teams have a top defense overall esp up front that is aiding and abetting the back pass defense. Just a guess but there has to be a reason you get a separation of the top teams vs all the rest with that stat. And whenever you look at wins you are going to have to bring in the offense and STs into the equation.

The whole point was to show passer rating's strong correlation to wins in the NFL, so when you say "bring offense into it," remember that there isn't a single defensive play that doesn't involve an offense. So whatever you do defensively is going to show up in your opponents' offensive stats. IOW, the effect of offense is already a huge part of it -- even if it's not your offense.

The NFL came up with passer rating in the early 70s to go beyond mere yards, completion percentage, or TD percentage in order to identify the true passing champ for the year. I think the reason passer rating correlates so strongly with wins is the same as the reason it was designed, namely that it includes the most important elements of passing: attempts, completions, yards, TD, and INT. That's probably what results in the separation you're referring to.

 

[percyhoward]

2014 was a relatively injury free season save for Sean Lee. Many like to look at that season and think we can be right back there with the run game back up to par. They are assuming the injuries are mild like that season then. It was one of the top reasons we had such a great year.

The main reasons were the schedule of weak, turnover-prone offenses we faced in 2014, and the leads provided by our offense (and that schedule) that forced opposing offenses to take more risks.

 

[CowboyRoy]

The main reasons were the schedule of weak, turnover-prone offenses we faced in 2014, and the leads provided by our offense (and that schedule) that forced opposing offenses to take more risks.

Here is my list of reasons why we went 12-4 listed in order or most important:

1. Tony Romo was healthy for the entire season
2. The run game and what Demarco did
3. Overall health of the rest of the team
4 The defense was 3rd in the league in turnovers
5. Easy schedule

In my opinion #2 and #5 are the only ones that I am confident we can duplicate. Other factors are that I believe we are weaker in the pass rush and that includes our two starting DE's out for 4 weeks. I also believe the Giants and Commanders are both better than they were in 2014. Romo is two years older, and #3 and #4 will be near impossible to duplicate. I do, however feel like the offense and the run game could be even more devastating that in 2014.

 

[JoeBoBBY]

Here is my list of reasons why we went 12-4 listed in order or most important:

1. Tony Romo was healthy for the entire season
2. The run game and what Demarco did
3. Overall health of the rest of the team
4 The defense was 3rd in the league in turnovers
5. Easy schedule

In my opinion #2 and #5 are the only ones that I am confident we can duplicate. Other factors are that I believe we are weaker in the pass rush and that includes our two starting DE's out for 4 weeks. I also believe the Giants and Commanders are both better than they were in 2014. Romo is two years older, and #3 and #4 will be near impossible to duplicate. I do, however feel like the offense and the run game could be even more devastating that in 2014.

yeah...everything....and I do mean "everything" will have to fall into our favor.....our bucket of luck....that's the only way we make it to the Playoffs, let alone the NFCCG.....Unless.....its a big jump I know, unless we create some kind of "Momentum" with EE rookie of the year and the Great Wall....


If EE starts ripping off back to back 200 hundred yard games and multiple TDs, and we find that "Juice"..... everybody is going to want to jump that train...its what happened in CAR last year..... 85 Bears come to mind.....The first Eli Manning SB win......which was really all defense for them. But those teams found that Momentum borderline Hysteria "Juice"...its hard to stop that...but its even harder to create or find.

Everything has to go our way. !! Everything; Hey, we have number 5 already !!!

 

[CowboyRoy]

yeah...everything....and I do mean "everything" will have to fall into our favor.....our bucket of luck....that's the only way we make it to the Playoffs, let alone the NFCCG.....Unless.....its a big jump I know, unless we create some kind of "Momentum" with EE rookie of the year and the Great Wall....


If EE starts ripping off back to back 200 hundred yard games and multiple TDs, and we find that "Juice"..... everybody is going to want to jump that train...its what happened in CAR last year..... 85 Bears come to mind.....The first Eli Manning SB win......which was really all defense for them. But those teams found that Momentum borderline Hysteria "Juice"...its hard to stop that...but its even harder to create or find.

Everything has to go our way. !! Everything; Hey, we have number 5 already !!!

What we have now is a run game and an offense that it will nearly impossible for 95% of the league to stop. We have an identity, something to put the fear in teams. We will win games a lone simply because they have no way to handle our run game. We have the stones now to go on the road to a place like Seattle and pound the rock against a great defense.

 

[percyhoward]

1. Tony Romo was healthy for the entire season
2. The run game and what Demarco did
3. Overall health of the rest of the team
4 The defense was 3rd in the league in turnovers
5. Easy schedule

I was thinking you were saying health was the main reason for the improvement of the defense, for some reason. As for the whole team, #1 goes without saying. It doesn't matter how well you run if you can't pass (see 2015), although Elliott should play a major role in the passing game if Romo isn't healthy. #4 was a direct result of #5, but we won't really know how easy this year's schedule is until we play it.

 

[JoeBoBBY]

What we have now is a run game and an offense that it will nearly impossible for 95% of the league to stop. We have an identity, something to put the fear in teams. We will win games a lone simply because they have no way to handle our run game. We have the stones now to go on the road to a place like Seattle and pound the rock against a great defense.

that's what I am hoping for..................................."desperately seeking dominating run game"

 

[DFWJC]

Here is my list of reasons why we went 12-4 listed in order or most important:

1. Tony Romo was healthy for the entire season
2. The run game and what Demarco did
3. Overall health of the rest of the team
4 The defense was 3rd in the league in turnovers
5. Easy schedule

In my opinion #2 and #5 are the only ones that I am confident we can duplicate. Other factors are that I believe we are weaker in the pass rush and that includes our two starting DE's out for 4 weeks. I also believe the Giants and Commanders are both better than they were in 2014. Romo is two years older, and #3 and #4 will be near impossible to duplicate. I do, however feel like the offense and the run game could be even more devastating that in 2014.

1. Not the "entire season" Romo did miss 1 1/2 games in 2014. and they lost both games. So 2 of 4 losses were when he missed time.
I'd say the odds are that he plays 14-15 games this year...or about the same as 2014.
2. The run game should be wicked this year. Hard to 100% duplicate 2014 though...but plenty good enough
3. How is #3 nearly impossible to duplicate? The team was 19th in starting player days including Sean lee all year. They could easily duplicate or improve on that.
4. Doubt they are 3rd in turnovers. But then again, the overall defense may be better
5. probably the same

The big one is #1. If Romo stays upright most or all of the season, then the playoffs aren't a stretch at all.
The Super Bowl, however, would still be stretch without defense..imo.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I was thinking you were saying health was the main reason for the improvement of the defense, for some reason. As for the whole team, #1 goes without saying. It doesn't matter how well you run if you can't pass (see 2015), although Elliott should play a major role in the passing game if Romo isn't healthy. #4 was a direct result of #5, but we won't really know how easy this year's schedule is until we play it.

I think #5 certainly played a part in #4. I think what played a bigger part was that we were up a lot with the offense rolling and the run game dominating. Teams were playing catchup and had to take more chances knowing that we were going to put up points. It also made them more one dimensional with the pass and we could tee off more on D.

 

[Idgit]

1. Not the "entire season" Romo did miss 1 1/2 games in 2014. and they lost both games. So 2 of 4 losses were when he missed time.
I'd say the odds are that he plays 14-15 games this year...or about the same as 2014.
2. The run game should be wicked this year. Hard to 100% duplicate 2014 though...but plenty good enough
3. How is #3 nearly impossible to duplicate? The team was 19th in starting player days including Sean lee all year. They could easily duplicate or improve on that.
4. Doubt they are 3rd in turnovers. But then again, the overall defense may be better
5. probably the same

The big one is #1. If Romo stays upright most or all of the season, then the playoffs aren't a stretch at all.
The Super Bowl, however, would still be stretch without defense..imo.

It goes without saying that teams with pro-bowl quality QBs need them in the lineup.

As far as the turnovers go, Marinelli teams historically have fared well in that department. Last year was a disaster in terms of never playing with leads and I believe percy's provided stats that suggested we played an inordinate number of teams in the top-10 last season in terms of ball control. Take a team that doesn't turn over the football, and then don't put them in a position where they're behind in a game, and you get 11 total takeaways on the way ot 4-12.

I don't care about the RB production either way, but Elliott's a better player than Murray was. If we give him as many carries, he'll outperform him. What I do hope to see from Elliott is the big plays and the touchdowns from all over the field. That, and his work in pass protection and as a receiver has me looking forward to the offense this year.

The defense? It's a struggle to see how we end up much better than average. If our offense puts the defense in much-better-than-average situations all the time, we can do it. I think we'll see that a lot v. some bad teams. It's a toss-up whether or not they can do it against actual good ones. I suspect they won't quite be able to, which is why I think we'll be very competitive, probably win the East, and then play a few close games in the playoffs basically playing Marinelli roulette until we find that bullet in the chamber that sends us off into the 2017 offseason, this time determined to address the defense up until the point where we take a QB early and devote another decent pick to the WR position, leaving me scratching my head again.

They can explain that the way they saw it, Jaylon Smith was like a top-10 pick they spent on the defense so they had the luxury of going offense early.