An Interview with K.C. Joyner, Part One

[LaTunaNostra]

shows what I know...I would have said Bledsoe was more accurate but made more bad decisions...not the other way around

but still not a rosie picture

I think VT makes more inexplicable bad decisions than Bledsoe - Drew's you can easily see where they came from. And why. Vinny's you just scratch your head. I question Joyner's take on the amount, tho.

One a few more notes on Joyner's spiral-bound, massive book. Siince no one but Mash has commented on the formula, I won't be typing out any more of it.

From what I have read, his team sections aren't exactly loaded with brilliant commentary. But he does make a point of summarizing based on his research/formula. Example, in the Cleveland section he says of AB:

For a receiver who is supposed to be a deep threat, Bryant certainly didn't do that well on his vertical routes. He ws only thrown 17 deep passes, probably in large part due too teams playing soft coverage on him a lot (5th highest percentage on deep passes, tied for 10th highest in medium passes). He also had tight/good coverage against him on 47% of his deep passes (59th highest). His yards per attempt, 7.3, is a dismal number for a vertical receiver. Those numbers weren't bad because of bad passes, either, as none of the bad passes thrown to Bryant were on his deep routes. Bryant also got 55 yards of his 224 deep yards and one of his 3 deep TDs on a blown coverage. To put it sim[ly, he was a subpar deep receiver, and that is probably being kind.

Maybe he'll get it turned around with a new coaching staff. Parcells is a tough coach to play for, but Bryant didn't play any better for Cleveland last year, at least vertically. Cleveland only threw him 11 deep passes in 10 games. He got his three TDs on those passes but made no other catches, and one of those TDs was the blown coverage I spoke of earlier. He is still young enough to get it turned around, but he's entering his 4th season. There comes a time when you stop being a high draft pick phenom and simply become a draft day bust. Bryant is riding that fence, but let's help Romeo & company can help him land on the right side.

p. 186.

Maybe because I thought Bryant's potential as a deep receiver was way over-rated here, that struck me as pretty cogent.

If you like the expanded stats concept, appreciate sincerety in reportage, and admire a logical explanation of criteria (there's a rating the broadcasters section at the back that is a marvelous example of clear laying out of an argument)...this book is well worth it. The expanded stats do a lot to explain how any individual's numbers are mitigated by the play of those around him.

At the very least, you'll get hours of enjoyment mulling it over .

 

[Mash]

There is no doubt this book is very entertaining and thanks LaTunaNostra for suppplying some tidbits on the book. I might even venture into buying it.

I just wish he could of had better resources for this kind of book.....because I believe there is a good market for this kind of book

BTW....Bryant never had the blazing speed to be a deep threat......He needs to work on his route running to take it to the next level.....easier said then done.

 

[WoodysGirl]

I think VT makes more inexplicable bad decisions than Bledsoe - Drew's you can easily see where they came from. And why. Vinny's you just scratch your head. I question Joyner's take on the amount, tho.

One a few more notes on Joyner's spiral-bound, massive book. Siince no one but Mash has commented on the formula, I won't be typing out any more of it.

From what I have read, his team sections aren't exactly loaded with brilliant commentary. But he does make a point of summarizing based on his research/formula. Example, in the Cleveland section he says of AB:



p. 186.

Maybe because I thought Bryant's potential as a deep receiver was way over-rated here, that struck me as pretty cogent.

If you like the expanded stats concept, appreciate sincerety in reportage, and admire a logical explanation of criteria (there's a rating the broadcasters section at the back that is a marvelous example of clear laying out of an argument)...this book is well worth it. The expanded stats do a lot to explain how any individual's numbers are mitigated by the play of those around him.

At the very least, you'll get hours of enjoyment mulling it over .

So based on that, I'm thinking you believe it's a decent enuff buy. Sounds good to me. Thanks for posting the tidbits, LTN. Gives everyone a good idea of what the book is about.

 

[Gent]

Interesting indeed.....

Like mentioned before....if he is watching televised games.....how do you make the assumption on poor reads? Televised games follow where the football is. We as viewers sometimes get a view on the whole picture but very rarely.

It would be amazing if he could actually get real NFL tapes.....he has the passion...just not the resources.

He only tracks the receiver the football was thrown too. Likewise, stats for DBs are only collected when the ball comes their way. Also, he doesn't count opportunities the QB may have missed, such as an open receiver deep. Instead, QB bad decisions are restricted to throwing into tight coverage or doing other stupid things, like crazily heaving the ball up in the air to avoid a sack. All in all, the stats he keeps are ones he can get from television angles.

This is good, in the sense that Joyner sticks to plays that actually happened, and avoids the subjectivity in evaluating what might have been.

-Gent

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I got my book Saturday and it was really a brief an easy read. In fact, I read through all of each team after the first day.

There are very few problems I have with the book. He didn't grade Tony Dixon because he didn't have enough attempts. But, what's funny is that when he shows Newman's "bad games", each one of them sans the Seattle game came when Dixon started.

I also think he's nuts on the backup QB he thinks has a great shot at making the Pro Bowl next year and whom he thinks is the best broadcast team.

Rich.......

 

[AdamJT13]

Personally, I'm not going to give an ounce of credibility to this guy's stats. All I had to do was look at the stats he had for Newman against Minnesota -- five catches allowed for 74 yards. I had him with four catches allowed for 37 yards. The difference is Marcus Robinson's 37-yard catch on Moss' reverse pass. He counted that catch against Newman. The problem is, I have no doubt that Newman played it correctly, and that the catch should be charged against Roy Williams.

Newman lined up across from Robinson. When the ball was snapped, Robinson ran in toward the linebackers, as if going to block. Newman took a step or two straight backward (possibly in zone coverage), at which point Moss took the handoff from Culpepper and started running wide on Newman's side. Newman obviously had containment on that side, and he ran hard directly at Moss. Moss then stopped and lofted a wobbly pass deep to Robinson, who had cut deep and was being trailed by Roy Williams. I'd be shocked if the defensive scheme would have required Newman to follow Robinson even after he saw Moss running a sweep to his side, when following Robinson would have left Moss with all kinds of running room on that side. To me, anytime a cornerback is in that situation, he must play the guy who has the ball (just as he would if it was a running back) and leave the deep coverage to the safeties.

So, if my interpretation of the play is correct -- and I believe it is -- then I have to question K.C. Joyner's ability to read a defensive coverage and determine who is responsible for covering each receiver. And if he can't do that, his stats can't be accurate. However, if anyone thinks I'm reading the play incorrectly, I'd love to hear a contrary opinion.

Also, the fact that he had Witten being targeted 129, and STATS Inc. has him being targeted only 122 times, also makes me question his numbers.

 

[Alexander]

Also, the fact that he had Witten being targeted 129, and STATS Inc. has him being targeted only 122 times, also makes me question his numbers.

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[InmanRoshi]

I'll likely buy the book next year ... its a bit late in the offseason to get it now.

I heard Babe Laufenberg say he broke down tape of Drew in Buffalo, and he said it was remarkable how little Buffalo threw the ball down the field, and I've been waiting to see a stat that would somewhat indicate that or if it was just a subjective observation.. I guess this somewhat quantifies it.

Those numbers don’t look like much of a discrepancy until you realize that Vinny threw many more deep passes than Drew (93 to 54).

As bad as the right side of our OL was last year and as little speed as we had at the WR position, it says something when Vinny is throwing deep nearly twice as often. In that regard, I do feel like Bledsoe's strengths were underutilized in Buffalo, how Bledsoe could be frustrated with it, and why Mularky would deem Bledsoe a bad fit if that's the brand of offense he wants to run.