CFZ Analytics in Football: What it is and isn’t

[CCBoy]

This is generally a good description.
The keynote is ALWAYS missing though.

** IT IS BASED ON PREVIOUS DATA and does not constitute real-time actualization through opponents ALSO having access to that previously compiled data.


Real world example:

4th and 3 from the 30-yard line. --48 yard FG or go for it or punt.
Analytics. Go for it.

Defenses: Spend a tremendous amount of time preparing for 4th down in that area of the field with yardages between 1 and 5 to gain.

analytics 2 years later: DO NOT GO FOR IT YOU GOOFS.

Don't miss sticking your helmet on the crown of that opponent's helmet as he comes out of stance. Then a stiff forearm to clear him...the linebacker's life.

 

[CCBoy]

It shoud be commended they are atleast trainstioning to a new milleniam but i am highl skeptical they will actually use this data in real time coaching decisions .

If one doesn't, your opponent will and take advantage of weaknesses found and studied ... against you.

 

[CCBoy]

Well, obviously. Nobody, least of all analytics folks, would argue that the performance when your best player is out predicts performance when your best player is back in. With the information you have (e.g. prior year data) you can start to make estimates about the difference in performance that you'd expect. But it also doesn't "invalidate" data from previous games. There's still stuff to learn about the guys who were out there, and that can inform how you deploy the defense when Lewis is back.

Next man up is very similar to the Army. Battlefield promotions.

 

[McKDaddy]

Well, obviously. Nobody, least of all analytics folks, would argue that the performance when your best player is out predicts performance when your best player is back in. With the information you have (e.g. prior year data) you can start to make estimates about the difference in performance that you'd expect. But it also doesn't "invalidate" data from previous games. There's still stuff to learn about the guys who were out there, and that can inform how you deploy the defense when Lewis is back.

They post the numbers without any disclaimers that "this superstar wasn't playing" or "the teams they have played thus far seem to be crap so the numbers may not hold up this week against the Chiefs", etc..

I always hear the numbers thrown about as factual. They may be based on the facts or at least mostly fact of what happened but there is no context. I mean the Ravens may have given up a run on 4th & 3 last week but if everyone watching saw that the OL got away with blatant hold it doesn't change it's in the numbers that the Ravens didn't do well in that situation. I'm not going for a run on 4th & 3 knowing I saw the hold and that Ray is back regardless if the numbers say I have a huge chance of converting.

You can only build so much context in mathematically ..... even that is based on someone's interpretation.

 

[Pass2Run]

I guess this is the time of year to post Master of the Obvious posts..

 

[CCBoy]

I guess this is the time of year to post Master of the Obvious posts..

If a person walks honestly on any level it is honorable...

 

[CCBoy]

You'd buy water from an Eskimo.

I played, I served, and I don't bow to insult and an implied walk of his own. What is YOUR football message while insulting me? Not impressed with your supposed ownership of being instead tough and higher in integrity. I didn't insult you...carry on with your image control efforts.

What's this about water?

You want to claim ownership for your addition?

I comment about topic and make a contribution about that. You now?

There is more to knowledge than the surface.

 

[Motorola]

If Lincoln Riley is using analytics to enhance his defenses somebody needs to tell him the algo is broken.

His idea of defense is just keep scoring more and put pressure on them to keep up.

He is not the first to do that.

Defense wins championships is the slogan but not all believe it.

Most overrated coach alive in my opinion.

Partly the reason Riley jumped ship from Oklahoma; he knows the Sooners will be further exposed as an inadequate defensive team next year in the SEC.

 

[CCBoy]

I'll just stick with the John Madden All Madden teams...

 

[Ranching]

Straight up, Gus...do you feel insulted by my post?

No sir.

 

[Ranching]

I guess this is the time of year to post Master of the Obvious posts..

Well post something!!

 

[Whyjerry]

Partly the reason Riley jumped ship from Oklahoma; he knows the Sooners will be further exposed as an inadequate defensive team next year in the SEC.

That USC defense was terrible. Tulane smoked them.

 

[CCBoy]

That USC defense was terrible. Tulane smoked them.

I just don't know about anything for the Longhorns but the Red River Rivalry. They moved now, but the Cowboys do have a Texas linebacker now.

 

[CCBoy]

Well post something!!

Seems to trip up with his tongue and leg to stand upon.

 

[Whyjerry]

I guess this is the time of year to post Master of the Obvious posts..

Parsons is really athletic

 

[Bobhaze]

Yep some moron HC blindly using analytics is doomed. I would rather have a coach use his own instincts based on his team and momentum.

Right. Here’s the thing- analytics does not make a bad coach a good coach. But it can make a good coach even better. It doesn’t make decisions for coaches. It just gives them more information to make a more informed decision.

 

[plasticman]

I was part of the analytics team for a company called Luxottica, owners of Lenscrafters, Target optical, Pearl Vision, Eyemed vision plan, etc.

Here is what I can tell you about analytics.:

We are influenced by what we see. However, what we see is a matter of perception and it differs from person to person. Analytics gives equal value to what we see, what we think we saw, and what we didn't notice.

For example, how many specific plays do you remember from the last 49er playoff game? Most likely you only remember the plays that make the highlight reel. You remember scoring and turnovers. You might remember a few sacks but that is just about all you remember, However, what about the plays that put you in a position to score? What about the plays leading up to the desperation play that resulted in a turnover?

This is why it is so humorous when a poster says, "I know what I saw"........no, you don't know what you saw. You might know 10% of what you saw and you are basing your opinion on that limited memory.

Analytics identify opponent tendencies, what a team is likely to do under certain circumstances.

 

[rags747]

Where can I see the evidence on this? ty…
Bill Belechick, Nick Saban, Doug Pederson, Lincoln Riley, and many others are recognizing its help in making better decisions based on facts not just feelings.

 

[CCBoy]

Right. Here’s the thing- analytics does not make a bad coach a good coach. But it can make a good coach even better. It doesn’t make decisions for coaches. It just gives them more information to make a more informed decision.

We all learn at different times and ways...to limit that to a single point in time isn't completely fair to individual progress or achievement as well. Madden was first was an offensive lineman. He then learned to be a coach and under an owner runned GM franchise. John Madden made a great Head Coach and even better announcer...even if he hated to and wouldn't then fly.

 

[Motorola]

That USC defense was terrible. Tulane smoked them.

46 pts___loss by 1 to the Green Wave - in a bowl game (Cotton Bowl Classic)
47 pts___ 17-pt loss to Utah in PAC-12 Championship _ AT HOME
45 pts___3-pt win @ UCLA
43 pts___1-pt loss @ Utah
37 pts___8-pt win @ Arizona
35 pts___6-pt win over Cal at home