CFZ Analytics in Football: What it is and isn’t

[pancakeman]

It’s fascinating to think about the ensuing arrival of “counter-analytics”: if Team A studies Team B’s statistical tendencies, Team A can plan the play most likely to succeed against them. But if Team B knows the same data and knows that Team A tends to game plan according to it, Team B can throw a perfect changeup—Team A has become the predictable team.

 

[pansophy]

My concern is will a coach, or do they, go with the analytics in a certain situation over the gut feeling.

Say 4th and 1, at the 38, and the analytics say go for it against a particular defense, what are the odds of making it. As opposed to ... we have a 260 RB, give it to him ... or kick the FG, we have a good K. I know the score and situation comes into account as well.

Or does it come down to that or not. Is someone in the coaches ear feeding him the analytics. Or do they have all of that before hand, and possibly in the game plan.

Still a lot to take into account and to learn as well.

This is not describing how a gut feeling should come into play. A good model should account for matchups. The examples in the original post may accurate describe past success and failures of both teams but likely would be a good predictor of future success because of selection effects — meaning there are reasons there was success and failure in the past, like matchups, and unless our situation matches those same characteristics in at least most respects the model won’t be that helpful for specific play calls.

I think gut feeling would come into play in situations like assessing momentum in the game, or who is playing really well that day, and making strategic decisions on that.

 

[T-RO]

Permit me to introduce a specific situation to help those who are newer -- or skeptical about analytics.

It's early in the second quarter. Score is 10-10. Our Cowboys have driven to the Giants 2 yard line, but stalled. It's 4th down. This situation brings up the eternal question: Kick the FG or go for a touchdown? Analytics say you go for the TD in this situation. It's important to understand the *complete reason* why.

If we succeed...We gain four additional points.

(And Here's the part people miss!)
If we fail...The Giants will be crowded by their own goal line, afraid of a mistake or turnover. The most likely thing that will follow is that the Giants will need to be conservative and aren't likely to advance the ball very far. Good chance NY will do nothing and we get the ball back at midfield. Even if we fail to score the TD...in just a few minutes we'll be right back in great position to score.

To summarize the game logic:
Success = over double the points (7 vs 3)
Failure = A beneficial game situation

Followup Question:
What would analytics say about the exact same situation, but with just 25 seconds remaining in the half?