Another RB we are going to need

[Idgit]

We won last year because we ran more, passed less, were more efficient when we did pass and controlled the clock.

Our defense was still below average, which yes was better than the worst defense in NFL history the year before. And a big reason why the defense was better was because they weren't on the field as long. They also got a few timely turnovers and faced many subpar QBs.

The defense was better, per series, across the board last year. That speaks to improved performance and not just benefitting from less time on the field over the course of the year, though that obviously helped, too. The improvement over the season before in pass defense was significant, even if it was incremental.

The lift we got on offense was mostly through improvement in the passing game. I'm sure some of that was related to the change in the play calling run v. pass mix, too.

 

[BlindFaith]

I didn't fair to understand it, but I was sidestepping the part where I think you're off-base. You've got the cart before the horse if you think the key is to hit a magic number in terms of carries/game. You also can keep drives going just fine if you can convert in the passing game and still run it a fair amount the rest of the time.

Team-------------------------Record---------Pct.
30+ Carries, <4.0 YPC3482-1096-410.758
<20 Carries, 5.0+ YPC37-4060.084
30+ Carries, >5.0+ YPC1287-389-90.767
<20 Carries, <4.0 YPC185-1772-10.095

Whether you run for under 4.0 (.758) or greater than 5.0 (.767), as long as you hit 30 carries you are likely going to win the game over three-quarters of the time. The rushing effectiveness is irrelevant as the carries themselves tell us a lot about how the game played out.

Likewise, if you failed to exceed 20 carries, it does not matter if you averaged over 5.0 (.084) or under 4.0 (.095), you likely lost the game over 90 percent of the time.

Even if you average over 6.0 YPC, teams have a record of 15-169 (.082) when they are at 20 carries or less. In that case, it is likely one long run is boosting the average. No matter how good one run is, it still only can help you for one drive in a game.

Similarly, we looked at games where a team threw at least 35 passes, which would be an above-average amount since the merger, and again made note of the rushing yards per carry.

Teams - 35+ Pass Attempts 1970-2011
Situation------------------------------------------Record---------Pct.
Team Rushing <4.0 YPC----------------------1185-2655-180.309
Team Rushing >5.0 YPC-----------------------239-620-30.279

Try reading the articles I posted. It'll help with the unpacking.

 

[BlindFaith]

The defense was better, per series, across the board last year. That speaks to improved performance and not just benefitting from less time on the field over the course of the year, though that obviously helped, too. The improvement over the season before in pass defense was significant, even if it was incremental.

The lift we got on offense was mostly through improvement in the passing game. I'm sure some of that was related to the change in the play calling run v. pass mix, too.

Please, please...everyone, stop comparing last years "improvement" in defense to 2013. It's like saying our defense last year was far better than a typical high school defense. It doesn't frickin matter.

What does matter is that the defense last year was still below average and wasn't exposed anymore due to us running the ball more and controlling the TOP.

 

[Idgit]

Team-------------------------Record---------Pct.
30+ Carries, <4.0 YPC3482-1096-410.758
<20 Carries, 5.0+ YPC37-4060.084
30+ Carries, >5.0+ YPC1287-389-90.767
<20 Carries, <4.0 YPC185-1772-10.095

Whether you run for under 4.0 (.758) or greater than 5.0 (.767), as long as you hit 30 carries you are likely going to win the game over three-quarters of the time. The rushing effectiveness is irrelevant as the carries themselves tell us a lot about how the game played out.

Likewise, if you failed to exceed 20 carries, it does not matter if you averaged over 5.0 (.084) or under 4.0 (.095), you likely lost the game over 90 percent of the time.

Even if you average over 6.0 YPC, teams have a record of 15-169 (.082) when they are at 20 carries or less. In that case, it is likely one long run is boosting the average. No matter how good one run is, it still only can help you for one drive in a game.

Similarly, we looked at games where a team threw at least 35 passes, which would be an above-average amount since the merger, and again made note of the rushing yards per carry.

Teams - 35+ Pass Attempts 1970-2011
Situation------------------------------------------Record---------Pct.
Team Rushing <4.0 YPC----------------------1185-2655-180.309
Team Rushing >5.0 YPC-----------------------239-620-30.279

Try reading the articles I posted. It'll help with the unpacking.

Or, it will continue to confuse cause with effect, and not unpack anything. One of those two.

 

[BlindFaith]

Or, it will continue to confuse cause with effect, and not unpack anything. One of those two.

Or it will prove that teams that are able to run the ball 30+ times a game will win 75% of the time.

Passing it more than 35+ times a game will result in winning about 25% of the time.

So you pick. What is more important. Passing more or running more?

 

[Idgit]

Please, please...everyone, stop comparing last years "improvement" in defense to 2013. It's like saying our defense last year was far better than a typical high school defense. It doesn't frickin matter.

What does matter is that the defense last year was still below average and wasn't exposed anymore due to us running the ball more and controlling the TOP.

Please, everybody. When talking about improvement of one team relative to the prior season, do, actually, use relevant bases for comparison. We're talking about how an 8-8 team that lost 5 games by 8 points in 2013 became a 12-4 team in 2014, and part of that improvement was by becoming significantly better defensively. And, yes, we improved from awful to below average.

And again, if the defense improved only because of ToP differential and and running the ball more, how is it we improved on a per drive basis in terms of the number of plays per drive and the number of points given up per drive? We benefitted from fewer snaps, but we also played better on defense whether it was at the start of a game or the start of the season or at the end. Some of that is performance improvement, too.

 

[Idgit]

Or it will prove that teams that are able to run the ball 30+ times a game will win 75% of the time.

Passing it more than 35+ times a game will result in winning about 25% of the time.

So you pick. What is more important. Passing more or running more?

Neither. Passing effectively is more important.

The attempts data isn't helpful in this case because it's obviously not causal. You can run it 30+ times and won't win if the other guys win the passing effectiveness differential. The opposite is not true of passing differential. If you win that, you're going to most likely win the game without regard for how often you ran the football.

 

[BlindFaith]

Neither. Passing effectively is more important.

The attempts data isn't helpful in this case because it's obviously not causal. You can run it 30+ times and won't win if the other guys win the passing effectiveness differential. The opposite is not true of passing differential. If you win that, you're going to most likely win the game without regard for how often you ran the football.

So unpack the data. In the 75% of the wins where a team rushed for more than 30+ times a game, show me the passing differential. Clearly the stats say if you pass it more than 35+ times a game you only win a quarter of time.

What this points to is balance. Balance meaning that both parts are equally important. The nuances of how the game is played and the impacts of every decision are far too interlocked to point blank say "this is so" or "that is so". Factor in luck, injuries, weather etc and it all becomes just an interesting ride.

 

[BlindFaith]

Please, everybody. When talking about improvement of one team relative to the prior season, do, actually, use relevant bases for comparison. We're talking about how an 8-8 team that lost 5 games by 8 points in 2013 became a 12-4 team in 2014, and part of that improvement was by becoming significantly better defensively. And, yes, we improved from awful to below average.

And again, if the defense improved only because of ToP differential and and running the ball more, how is it we improved on a per drive basis in terms of the number of plays per drive and the number of points given up per drive? We benefitted from fewer snaps, but we also played better on defense whether it was at the start of a game or the start of the season or at the end. Some of that is performance improvement, too.

The defense did play better. I'm not saying it didnt. And I'm not saying that running more was the only reason. I do have a problem with stats that try to minimize the importance of running the ball.

 

[Idgit]

The defense did play better. I'm not saying it didnt. And I'm not saying that running more was the only reason. I do have a problem with stats that try to minimize the importance of running the ball.

It doesn't minimize the importance of running the ball, though. It minimizes the importance of running it better than the other guys. That's an important distinction. I think everybody agrees that running the ball is very important in football.

 

[JoeBoBBY]

The defense was better, per series, across the board last year. That speaks to improved performance and not just benefitting from less time on the field over the course of the year, though that obviously helped, too. The improvement over the season before in pass defense was significant, even if it was incremental.

The lift we got on offense was mostly through improvement in the passing game. I'm sure some of that was related to the change in the play calling run v. pass mix, too.

I credit Romo for being much more patient and smarter with the football. I also credit the coaches for calling more rushing attempts when the situation called for more rushing attempts. Not passing attempts. Of course he had the luxury of being more patient, because he wasn't playing from behind for the most part...and we didn't need to score 35 plus to win.

 

[Idgit]

I credit Romo for being much more patient and smarter with the football. I also credit the coaches for calling more rushing attempts when the situation called for more rushing attempts. Not passing attempts. Of course he had the luxury of being more patient, because he wasn't playing from behind for the most part...and we didn't need to score 35 plus to win.

Honestly, that's what I think helped him more than anything. Romo's a guy who will take chances when it comes time to take chances. Being able to protect a lead or rely on a defensive stop really did take stuff off his plate last year.

 

[Aven8]

Late to the thread here, but IMO once we committed to the running game and really became a smash mouth football team with a beast in DM, and by adding another beast on D in Ro, it changed. It changed the way we saw things and the league. The D wasn't that great, but we had an enforcer in the middle, and with the help of the O we intimidated people. It was like we went from a finesse team, to the Ravens over night. Beautiful!

 

[JoeBoBBY]

Late to the thread here, but IMO once we committed to the running game and really became a smash mouth football team with a beast in DM, and by adding another beast on D in Ro, it changed. It changed the way we saw things and the league. The D wasn't that great, but we had an enforcer in the middle, and with the help of the O we intimidated people. It was like we went from a finesse team, to the Ravens over night. Beautiful!

Thats a big reason why I want to continue that formula...Let that Offensive Line.....Attack!!

 

[BlindFaith]

Honestly, that's what I think helped him more than anything. Romo's a guy who will take chances when it comes time to take chances. Being able to protect a lead or rely on a defensive stop really did take stuff off his plate last year.

What helped to a large degree was Garrett talking away Romos ability to audible out of running plays.