I agree that its not necessarily true, but its probably true. But more than the relative division of questions, the most significant -- and striking -- statement made by the judge was on the question of irreparable harm. She is reported as having said that on irreparable harm, it "appears the players have strong case."
To me, as a lawyer that's practiced before a number of federal district judges, and clerked for one before that, this is a HUGE tell. If a judge isn't convinced that you are right on the merits, the judge isn't going to be of the mind that denying a preliminary injunction will "harm" you at all, much less "irreparably." The fact that she believes the players have made a "strong" showing on irreparable harm means, to my mind, that she believes both that the substantive claims have merit and that the preliminary injunction is necessary. As someone who has litigated preliminary injunctions as a plaintiff in federal court, if I heard a federal judge say what Judge Nelson said, I'd know it was time for me to sit down. No further advocacy is necessary.
Not really. The players aren't arguing that they will be harmed today or tomorrow. After all, they sought a preliminary injunction but not a temporary restraining order (an ex parte order usually entered, if merited, on the day its sought), despite the fact that the two are frequently sought together. No, I think she's simply giving the NFL a chance to work something out before she brings down the hammer. Believe it or not, most judges don't want to be the central figure in resolving a high profile business dispute like this. They'd much prefer the parties work it out on their own. But if forced to decide, they will. Much in the way that Judge Doty waited a couple of weeks before handing down his decision that ripped the NFL a new one on the lockout payments. I could be wrong, but I suspect Judge Nelson could have ruled today if she wanted to. She's giving the NFL a chance. If they decide not to take it, and don't resolve this soon, she will drop the hammer.
If anybody is offering even money on the NFL at this point, I'll take some of that action...