Anyone care to explain to me why the skins are 2.5 pt dogs?

[theebs]

Portis. His injuries are legit. He was already banged up before the Steelers game.

since december of 2006 the washington Commanders have proven to be the better team. They have beaten Dallas twice, even though most dont think much of that december trip to washington but that is part of this teams problem.

and When are portis and moss not banged up? They will both play.

i think it is nuts that washington is an underdog.

 

[apickmans]

I'm sure his angle was going to be that it was just his pinkie and not his hand, so he could then claim that Romo was a wuss for not playing with a bad little finger.

But it's the metacarpal, below the knuckle. So it is his hand.

Not calling him a wuss at all. I understand how big that pinky injury is for a QB.

 

[theebs]

This is interesting since. When I checked the line Sunday night I was certain it said Washington was a 2.5 favorite.

Now I just checked online and I see us as a 1.5 favorite. Maybe I read it wrong Sunday night.

Either way, why would you care, let alone be upset that we are a favorite?

geez. Did I read it wrong in the paper this morning?

I could have sworn it had washington as a 2.5 point dog. There is a very good chance I am wrong though and If I am I apologize to everyone.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Not calling him a wuss at all. I understand how big that pinky injury is for a QB.

Fracture of the Metacarpus (aka hand fracture)

 

[theebs]

Not calling him a wuss at all. I understand how big that pinky injury is for a QB.

your misunderstanind again. Its the fifth metacarpal.

if he played and were to reinjure it, and there is a good chance of that he would be done for the year needing surgery.

 

[TNCowboy]

romo has a broken hand, felix would be coming off injury, same with some of our other players. portis is the main part of washintons offense, and he will be injured, romo is the main part of our offense, and he will be injured. washington is a much better football team. i have no idea why we're favored(besides the fact that cowboy fans will bet on them no matter what).

If Portis wasn't expected to play, I could understand it, especially if Romo was expected to be close to 100%. He's far and away their best player.

Otherwise, I don't know. Maybe they expect a ton of action from Cowboy fans since Romo will supposedly be back.

 

[Doctor32]

lol

Id rather have Portis than Barber, anyday.

Not I.

Barber = versatility. Portis = Injury Report.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I'm not sure if you know this, but Vegas tries to get an idea of getting 50% of the betters to bet on each team. So if Dallas is a 2.5 point favorites, that means for right now Vegas believes that about 50% of the bettors will take the Cowboys with that point spread and 50% will take the Skins with that spread.

That being said, it's not uncommon for Vegas to add points to the favorite. It's human nature to always take the favorite, so they add points to the spread so more people will take the underdog and get the betting at 50/50. Perhaps Vegas thinks the Cowboys are really a 1 point favorite against the Skins and added some points to get more people to bet on the underdog.

This isn't necessarily a big thing as in general...Vegas knows more than we do. Although last week they had the Ravens as only 1 point favorites over the Texans, and that really didn't work out that way.






YAKUZA

 

[apickmans]

your misunderstanind again. Its the fifth metacarpal.

if he played and were to reinjure it, and there is a good chance of that he would be done for the year needing surgery.

Ah ok. I just thought it was a bad pinky injury the entire time. I was probably just too worried about our injuries, i guess i missed it.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

geez. Did I read it wrong in the paper this morning?

I could have sworn it had washington as a 2.5 point dog. There is a very good chance I am wrong though and If I am I apologize to everyone.

I don't bet at all, but it looks like most people have us as 1.5 point favorites. (If I got my +/- right.

http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html

 

[theebs]

I'm not sure if you know this, but Vegas tries to get an idea of getting 50% of the betters to bet on each team. So if Dallas is a 2.5 point favorites, that means for right now Vegas believes that about 50% of the bettors will take the Cowboys with that point spread and 50% will take the Skins with that spread.

That being said, it's not uncommon for Vegas to add points to the favorite. It's human nature to always take the favorite, so they add points to the spread so more people will take the underdog and get the betting at 50/50. Perhaps Vegas thinks the Cowboys are really a 1 point favorite against the Skins and added some points to get more people to bet on the underdog.

This isn't necessarily a big thing as in general...Vegas knows more than we do. Although last week they had the Ravens as only 1 point favorites over the Texans, and that really didn't work out that way.






YAKUZA

No your right and I understand. I am really not thinking of it in terms of betting, just of what it represents.

but it makes some sense from a gambling perspective, but I still think even then washington should be favored by 2 or 3.

 

[theebs]

I don't bet at all, but it looks like most people have us as 1.5 point favorites. (If I got my +/- right.

http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html

thanks cl, I am just going by the star telegram.

 

[Kilyin]

Someone named Jay posted this in another thread. Probably the best explanation of betting lines that I've seen..

The whole idea that the home team gets an automatic 3 point is nothing but false.

The whole idea behind Vegas created lines is it's just an attempt for them to get even money bet on both sides of the bet. Typical lines are -110, meaning to win $100, you have to risk $110. This is called the "vig" or the "juice". If you consider a bookie's viewpoint, let's say he gets $550 on the Cowboys +2.5 and $550 on the Commanders -2.5--and let's say that the Cowboys win. Those bettors that took the Cowboys, in total, risked $550 and profited $500--but the Commanders bettors risked $550 and didn't win anything. The bookie pays out $500 to the Cowboys backers and then pockets that extra $50 he makes.

So yeah, the whole "home team gets 3 points" is nothing but a myth. Vegas wants even money on both sides to guarantee profit on their part, so lines are dictated by public perception and nothing else. If money is getting one-sided, the line will often move in order to tempt more bettors to venture to the other side. Has nothing to do with what "vegas thinks" or "vegas' prediction", it's ALL about public perception.

 

[zeroburrito]

Maybe i missed it but when did Romo break his hand?

its broken below the knuckle. it is still his finger, but it is in his hand.

 

[jdnelson103]

I'm not a doctor so I don't understand the technical terms of where the fracture was. Didn't Peter King say it was the last knuckle on the pinkie finger? Was he talking about the knuckle where the hand meets the finger, or the knuckle just before the finger nail?

 

[zeroburrito]

I'm not a doctor so I don't understand the technical terms of where the fracture was. Didn't Peter King say it was the last knuckle on the pinkie finger? Was he talking about the knuckle where the hand meets the finger, or the knuckle just before the finger nail?

below the knuckle you hit people with.

 

[AmishCowboy]

This is interesting since. When I checked the line Sunday night I was certain it said Washington was a 2.5 favorite.

Now I just checked online and I see us as a 1.5 favorite. Maybe I read it wrong Sunday night.

Either way, why would you care, let alone be upset that we are a favorite?

I saw that in the Sunday paper that we were 2.5 Dogs, I guess all the money is coming to the Cowboys side for it to move that far.

 

[Skinsmaniac]

Someone named Jay posted this in another thread. Probably the best explanation of betting lines that I've seen..

That's true, but it's not quite complete. Sometimes over 90% of the public will vote one way and the line won't move. When that happens, you know that Vegas thinks the public is wrong. You can check out how the public is voting at this site:
http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/trends.php

 

[StarWiz2]

Dallas at full strength would blow the Skins out. However, the Commanders have several things going in their favor. One is, Dallas is not at full strength. Two is, Dallas is at half-strength(if not more) in the coaching area. And three is, Dallas has been on an extended vacation over the bye.

So assuming this is the scenario Vegas is following, Dallas gets the 10 for being a superior overall team, but then reality stinks/strikes, so you takeaway 9 because they aren't, and for the various other problems. Makes Dallas a one point favorite.

Personally, I would give Dallas the 10, but assign more points for the handicap, like say, 16. Puts them at 6 pts underdog.

Ultimately it will come down to whether Romo can go the whole game, whether Zorn can outcoach Phillips, (which as we all know shouldn't be too terribly difficult) and whether the Commanders extended vacation over the bye was waaay better than the Cowboys.

 

[Longboysfan]

What bettor would give the boys points - none.
Now that line will get a lot of action......