Are draft picks overvalued?

Cowboy Brian

Cowboy Brian

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This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.
 
Cowboy Brian said:
This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.
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The value of the draft picks are their rookie contracts - it allows the team the flexibility to pay for those superstar players if they choose. The Yankees were decried for "buying" World Series, but the core of that team was farm-raised. They layered the core with high paid FA.
 
GMO415 said:
Taco was a first round...and he's average at best .Jury's still out on LVE
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wrong Taco is AVG at WORST, hes already that and can become better Same thing was said about Dlaw, hos that working out now? , LVE is getting flack like Jsmith was, Jsmith is turning the corner..give these guys time, thats the draft worth, if you pick guys be patient and develop them you have cheaper option then Overpriced and typically up in age FAs..great players can be found in the 4th-7th see Brady etc.. if you draft well picks can be valuable at any spot..some lower extra picks are sued to bundle with higher picks to trade..you can simply build ateam of high priced Fas or overpaying for your own players to stay..the draft is needed and all picks have vlaue
 
Denim Chicken said:
The Jury is still out on a rookie who hasn't played in a game? You don't say.
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Yep, and if you watched the game last night, both announcers talked quite a bit about the need to have a LB that can cover. That's going to be LVE's contribution, the problem is it takes repetitions, and some failures, to get accomplished.
 
Risen Star said:
Taco's awesome. Our best DE when you factor in sack celebration.

As for the thread. Yes. Nothing more overrated than the talent pool that builds your future. The smart teams trade their picks away.

Good stuff, Romo2Austin.
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I think you're taking my point out of context.

Why not trade a 4th or 5th rounder for a starter for the next few years? Not an elite player, but a good starter. A 3rd in many cases can get you a top 10 player at a position.

I recognize the value of home-grown talent, I understand the value of the rookie contracts, but with the amount of draft picks who end up off the team within 2-3 years, it doesn't seem like a bad strategy to augment drafting early & late with trading for proven starters using the mid round picks.
 
John813 said:
Should just scrap drafting players.
Why risk drafting a bust and just trade for players and sign players in free agency.
Zero percent bust rate trading for players or signing them.
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Well, no. Absolutely not.

But when you can get a good deal on a guy, why pass it up?
 
Denim Chicken said:
The Jury is still out on a rookie who hasn't played in a game? You don't say.
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Cowboy Brian said:
Well, no. Absolutely not.

But when you can get a good deal on a guy, why pass it up?
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Depends on what you call a good deal.

3rd for ET? Good deal.
2nd for ET? Fine, but a lot for a non QB/pass rusher soon to be FA IMO.
Seattle however wants more than that.
It's a hard pill to swallow to give up a 1st or a 2nd+ for a 29 year old player who wants a top dollar contract off the bat to not be disgruntled.
Especially when he is set to be a free agent the following year, and to be honest this team isn't ET away from the Superbowl.
I wouldn't mind getting ET now to make most of the cap hit fall in this and next year before 2nd contracts like Dak/Zeke/D-Law possibly hit.

The draft isn't some exact science and sure some teams may over value it. However, with free agency always setting a higher bar for every position every year it is vital to draft well and get a player for relative peanuts in cost for at least 4 years.

Not sure the Lions could of moved that pick for that type of ransom unless there was a "top" QB there as well. Teams will give away picks for a possible franchise QB. DT, not so much.
Lions got screwed in a sense for sucking way back then. Rookies drafted that high were getting top 5 deals off the bat and re-signing elite players like Suh/Calvin Johnson took up even more cap.
Now, rookies taken high get a good salary but no where near the late 2000's rookies were.
 
I don’t think he is. Wow did I just say that? :huh:

You’re making too many assumptions in that other teams are willing to trade starters for late round picks.

Generally disgruntled, injured or depth quality players ever get traded for 4th, 5th, 6th, and etc picks

Cowboy Brian said:
I think you're taking my point out of context.

Why not trade a 4th or 5th rounder for a starter for the next few years? Not an elite player, but a good starter. A 3rd in many cases can get you a top 10 player at a position.

I recognize the value of home-grown talent, I understand the value of the rookie contracts, but with the amount of draft picks who end up off the team within 2-3 years, it doesn't seem like a bad strategy to augment drafting early & late with trading for proven starters using the mid round picks.
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Problem is the salary cap.

You can trade for an established guy and pay them stupid money or you can draft them and hope they are the next superstar playing for you for cheap.
 
No they are not. With a limit on spending you need to get production from draft picks. Drafted players are much more cap friendly than a free agent with a similar skill set. And think about this, without a good draft we would have almost 0 talent. Our trades bring in average players at best, we sign bottom tier free agents only. Last 3 trades this year gave us Austin who averages less yards per catch that witten, traded our best kick returner for a guy we cut, gave a pick for a practice squad guard/c who immediately gets hurt.
 
Cowboy Brian said:
Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?
Click to expand...

The difficulty in resigning star players makes draft picks more valuable, not less.

In the old days when you could keep a guy his entire career because free agency and the salary cap didn't exist, draft picks were less valuable. Now, you need to draft well to replace guys who leave because you can't resign them all.
 
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