Are draft picks overvalued?

[JustChip]

The primary value is when the player is on the rookie contract. Not re-signing a player after their rookie contract is not a doom scenario. At that point they cost the same as signing a free agent from another team.

Excellent point!

 

[Toro9]

Yes, but they are lottery tickets.

 

[kskboys]

I think you're taking my point out of context.

Why not trade a 4th or 5th rounder for a starter for the next few years? Not an elite player, but a good starter. A 3rd in many cases can get you a top 10 player at a position.

I recognize the value of home-grown talent, I understand the value of the rookie contracts, but with the amount of draft picks who end up off the team within 2-3 years, it doesn't seem like a bad strategy to augment drafting early & late with trading for proven starters using the mid round picks.

Starters are generally not available for a 4th/5th round pick. When they are, there's generally a major issue w/ the player.

 

[kskboys]

Yes, but they are lottery tickets.

Not even close.

 

[cmoney23]

To me, the league is about talent acquisition and mitigating risk.

The draft does both well because you acquire talent and your risk (compensation) is low.
However, when you can trade assets to secure proven talent, that to mitigates risk (talent is more proven) also... so it is equally valuable. Possibly more so.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

YES. If anyone thinks ET is not worth LVE they are not well informed. I hope Jerry gives Seattle a #1 pick and gets ET as he is way more valuable than LVE our #1 pick. Go get ET Jerry.

I don't think its worth it...why? because you lose LVE, which means now you have a hole to fill (this year its LVE, and next year its another FA and another draft pick). and then you have to pay ET, which he is going to want a large contract, now you have to skim somewhere else.

the question I asked a while back. is ET the difference between cowboys going to the superbowl or not? let me be clear....I am not asking if he will help this team. he will. he is a top notch Saftey, but are we a top safety away from superbowl? our WRs is an unknown. our TEs are non existent. our DT are questionable at best. and some are questioning our QB situation with Dak being in the 2nd half of starting QBs in the league. and then of course for the sake of garrett haters...there is the coaching situation.

so if ET is not the superbowl difference maker this year, then why pay a first NOW, then pay boatload of money? when the guy is available NEXT year and he has already expressed interest in coming here.

I wouldn't pay a 1st for ET.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Draft picks in general aren't over rated. Hoping your team tanks if they get off to a bad start to move up a few places on the draft board is massively over rated.

exactly. look at what happened to Cleveland. they tanked and they are having a heck of a time getting out of it.

 

[Nightman]

You can't build a team without the draft. Draft picks are gold.

Draft picks are scratch off tickets

They have more value until you scratch them...the potential is like a drug to some people..... but they are more like Schrodinger's Cat....once you open the box it all changes

They can be jackpot winners, $5 winners or worthless

If you can turn an unscratched ticket into an All-Pro that is a deal you take every time

 

[kskboys]

exactly. look at what happened to Cleveland. they tanked and they are having a heck of a time getting out of it.

The higher the draft pick the better. Pointing to a team's failure to draft well has nothing to do w/ higher picks being more valuable.

 

[the_h0wey]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

No. No they are not

 

[kskboys]

Draft picks are scratch off tickets

They have more value until you scratch them...the potential is like a drug to some people..... but they are more like Schrodinger's Cat....once you open the box it all changes

They can be jackpot winners, $5 winners or worthless

If you can turn an unscratched ticket into an All-Pro that is a deal you take every time

After the 3rd round, sure. 1sts and 2nds, not even close. You can't study and evaluate scratch offs.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Draft Picks will never be overvalued in the Hard Cap Era.

 

[Nightman]

After the 3rd round, sure. 1sts and 2nds, not even close. You can't study and evaluate scratch offs.

Wrong and wrong

They are all a gamble from Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck and everything in between

You can study all you want but until the lights come on the big stage you never know

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Draft picks are scratch off tickets

They have more value until you scratch them...the potential is like a drug to some people..... but they are more like Schrodinger's Cat....once you open the box it all changes

They can be jackpot winners, $5 winners or worthless

If you can turn an unscratched ticket into an All-Pro that is a deal you take every time

I disagree. the likely hood of winning a lottery ticket is 1 in a 10,000, that's winning anything. they even tell you that up front. more than 70% of first round picks work out for their teams in some form or fashion. Obviously there is first round busts, but not like a scratch off. what you said is an exaggeration to make the reality something its not to make a case for something that's false.

 

[jsb357]

Our best DE when you factor in sack celebration.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

They're not overvalued. They're a way to get talented players for cheap. You can't afford too many veteran superstars, and you can't build a winning team around cheap veterans who are cheap for a reason. You need to get quality production from guys on cheap rookie contracts in order to win games. The higher the pick, the higher the likelihood of the quality.

 

[Nightman]

They're not overvalued. They're a way to get talented players for cheap. You can't afford too many veteran superstars, and you can't build a winning team around cheap veterans who are cheap for a reason. You need to get quality production from guys on cheap rookie contracts in order to win games. The higher the pick, the higher the likelihood of the quality.

They are overvalued in DAL and on this board

There are 3 ways to build a team
1- Draft picks and UDFAs
2- Sign Free Agents and retain your own
3- Make Trades

We only do 1 anymore because Carr turned out to be a let down..... he was a 5 year starter but never worth the 50m.... we didn't stop drafting people because we traded up for and over-drafted Claiborne but we abandoned big time FA because of Carr

Our Trading history is also pretty bad since HWalker.... the Galloway and RWilliams disasters overshadow any little wins

Basically we don't make ANY big moves any more..... we are all in on Drafting and Comp Picks and re-signing our own guys....... we need to do a lot more in FA and Trades to truly be great again

Draft picks aren't gold.....they are just currency that we can use or trade to build a team

 

[Nightman]

I disagree. the likely hood of winning a lottery ticket is 1 in a 10,000, that's winning anything. they even tell you that up front. more than 70% of first round picks work out for their teams in some form or fashion. Obviously there is first round busts, but not like a scratch off. what you said is an exaggeration to make the reality something its not to make a case for something that's false.

That is pretty similar to getting a HoF outside the Top10

There are different levels of wins but most Draft Picks are lucky to be starters for 4 years

 

[NotForLong]

Taco was a first round...and he's average at best .Jury's still out on LVE

Says who. Taco has been doing nothning but progressing. Are you claiming average at best as his cieling? Well then you are wrong.

Jurys out on LVE? There is no evidence he hasnt even played a down of pro ball yet.

Do you really feel this way about young talent. Or do you just like to play " the voice of reason" on message boards

 

[northerncowboynation]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

Undervalued by the Seahawks, that's why they want a second and change, over valued by the Cowboys, that's why they won't give the change. Doesn't sound like a real good trade pairing does it?