erod
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I liken good football to dominoes.
Not the game at the table you see in random McDonalds at 7 am, but rather those intricate laid-out domino creations that topple over to our transfixed amazement. That first one can be a gym-floor away from the last one, yet they are very much connected with the right design. Still cool to this day.
The same relationship exists in statistics. I hate stats. I've long railed against them because they're so often purposefully stilted to oversimplify and misrepresent the game itself. Individually, they say so little about so much and vice versa. They are quick ammo for the less informed or, in the media's case, the lazy and biased.
Unless, that is, you line them up into the right equation. There are many statistical equations that work in football, thankfully, but the challenge lies in finding the right variables that create and reflect the meaningful statistics. It's far easier to find variables than it is to put them in the right equations. It is also a lot easier to put up stats than it is to play winning football.
Football is an inter-linked game more so than any other sport. Position to position, run to pass, offense to defense, playcalling to execution, personnel to scheme. There are a lot more dominoes in football than just players. As such, stats can be *******ized into things they don't really mean.
Look at turnovers, for instance.
Last year, the Cowboys played 10 games without creating a single turnover. In 2014, there was only one such game. With nary a thought, the lazy will just ladle the defense in blame and call it the huge flaw in this team and the reason it can't win this year. Even though it was pretty much the same dudes that were part of the 2014 defense that gathered turnovers in bushels.
There were reasons why turnovers dried up. Plenty, in fact. No Romo meant teams didn't have to take risks to win. Big leads allowed opponents to sit on the ball. Exhausted defenses couldn't take advantage of chances to pounce. No room for error whatsoever, yet a demand to make something happen or else. No time of possession for Dallas' offense meant too many plays to defend. It wasn't as simple as just needing personnel.
Look at Darren McFadden, too.
His numbers were among the best in the league, but he's nowhere close to being the best in the league. Meaningless carries in blowout games with teams guarding against big plays does not equate to a great running back. Running through massive chasms behind the league's best offensive line is something a pro should be able to do. Rushing for 100 yards in a 35-10 loss is hardly an accomplishment. Empty yards mean nothing when you're not the right back for the offense. McFadden wasn't like Murray, which is why Elliott is here now.
I could list examples like this all day. I'll save you the time. It's not hard to do.
Last year was a colossal mess, but that doesn't mean the equation was wrong. The worst kind of injuries threw the design for the season out of balance. It left too big of gaps in too important of places. Murray's style was missed. It gutted the chemistry that pervaded 2014. It doesn't take random stats to understand what happened. The physics were all wrong.
Time to reset, and try again with healthy parts to a familiar approach. Forget the stats. Look at the dominoes. Push the first one over again and let's see what happens.
Not the game at the table you see in random McDonalds at 7 am, but rather those intricate laid-out domino creations that topple over to our transfixed amazement. That first one can be a gym-floor away from the last one, yet they are very much connected with the right design. Still cool to this day.
The same relationship exists in statistics. I hate stats. I've long railed against them because they're so often purposefully stilted to oversimplify and misrepresent the game itself. Individually, they say so little about so much and vice versa. They are quick ammo for the less informed or, in the media's case, the lazy and biased.
Unless, that is, you line them up into the right equation. There are many statistical equations that work in football, thankfully, but the challenge lies in finding the right variables that create and reflect the meaningful statistics. It's far easier to find variables than it is to put them in the right equations. It is also a lot easier to put up stats than it is to play winning football.
Football is an inter-linked game more so than any other sport. Position to position, run to pass, offense to defense, playcalling to execution, personnel to scheme. There are a lot more dominoes in football than just players. As such, stats can be *******ized into things they don't really mean.
Look at turnovers, for instance.
Last year, the Cowboys played 10 games without creating a single turnover. In 2014, there was only one such game. With nary a thought, the lazy will just ladle the defense in blame and call it the huge flaw in this team and the reason it can't win this year. Even though it was pretty much the same dudes that were part of the 2014 defense that gathered turnovers in bushels.
There were reasons why turnovers dried up. Plenty, in fact. No Romo meant teams didn't have to take risks to win. Big leads allowed opponents to sit on the ball. Exhausted defenses couldn't take advantage of chances to pounce. No room for error whatsoever, yet a demand to make something happen or else. No time of possession for Dallas' offense meant too many plays to defend. It wasn't as simple as just needing personnel.
Look at Darren McFadden, too.
His numbers were among the best in the league, but he's nowhere close to being the best in the league. Meaningless carries in blowout games with teams guarding against big plays does not equate to a great running back. Running through massive chasms behind the league's best offensive line is something a pro should be able to do. Rushing for 100 yards in a 35-10 loss is hardly an accomplishment. Empty yards mean nothing when you're not the right back for the offense. McFadden wasn't like Murray, which is why Elliott is here now.
I could list examples like this all day. I'll save you the time. It's not hard to do.
Last year was a colossal mess, but that doesn't mean the equation was wrong. The worst kind of injuries threw the design for the season out of balance. It left too big of gaps in too important of places. Murray's style was missed. It gutted the chemistry that pervaded 2014. It doesn't take random stats to understand what happened. The physics were all wrong.
Time to reset, and try again with healthy parts to a familiar approach. Forget the stats. Look at the dominoes. Push the first one over again and let's see what happens.
