Are we really looking to use our #1's just for 2 players..?

[Redball Express]

The more I look at the multitude of needs on this team, the more I'm convinced the percentages insist we use our #1's to trade down and pickup more picks.

While we say that we have primary needs at RB, WR and CB, I also think we have issues with ST coverage units and we need a big infusion of new return talent there, also.

Additionally, if Davis leaves (sort of sure he will), we are going to have a big hole in STs as well as safety depth. He stands for two players on our roster so that is two guys minimum we will need to replace once he's gone.

And when you look at our PR and KO return teams, we are completely lacking anybody on either of those teams that can threaten another team to break one or even get consistant returns to advance the field position grudge match in a game.

Now..at this point, I'm counting CB, RB, WR, KO and PR and Keith Davis being gone as 2 players to replace him (at safety and special team captain) as a minimum of needing to find 7 extremely solid players out of this draft. And it's actually more if we need to get some additional players on the ST units to improve coverage units.

So how many more guys is that going to be..another 3-5..?

Now you can possibly cut that number down if when you find your RB, CB and WR, you make those players also play those special positions as KO and PR return men and coverage guys, too.

But if you decide you don't want your #2 RB risking injury on ST and the same thing with your rookie #2 or #3 WR and your rookie #3 CB, because you are depending on them playing alot as platoon starters..

..now you are needing to draft more players, quality players, just to play the important ST roles, too, if you don't want to risk injury to key rookies.

So what I'm seeing is we need a significant increase in picks to adequately address all those needs either in combination or independently.

To do this, IMO..the only logical approach is the #1s need to be multiplied at this point and the scouting department needs to do it's homework and find the combination of guys that can come in and fill all these various roles and holes.

I don't think you come close to filling all these needs with just going ahead and using your 2 #1's and your 2nd. Rd pick which is a very, very late in that round, making it technically a high 3 rd. rd. pick.

Given the quality of depth of the draft into the 2-3rd rds. of this year's draft..we could significantly elevate the entire team if we get 4-5+ draft picks in the 2 and 3rd rds. for our 2 #1's.

Added to our own picks in the 2nd and 3rd. rds..we could come out with 7-8+ picks in these two rounds allowing us to aggressively draft specific players to fill specific roles and at a much cheaper cap hit than the 2 #1's will cost.

We have the core of players now on the team we need. What we need now is to take this draft and solidify the holes behind the starters and position some of these guys to maybe start in a year or two if needed.

None of this requires any reaching or risk taking. What it requires is our scouting department to target the players and then draft them, coach them and committing to play them.

This continues our past concepts of using our picks in the best ways and also addressing our overall needs while being fiscally prudent moving forward.

It's also the best plan to get us to the next level and not just depend on 2 or 3 draft picks to do the work of 7-8 positional needs.

Footnote: The above will completely void any talk of moving up to get higher draft picks for a player like DMAC because you will completely fail to address any other needs, leaving you severely regressing from the success established from 2007.

Comments..?

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS:starspin

 

[Jaxonsdaddd]

Good post and I agree with some of it and disagree with some of it but here are a few of my thoughts..

The whole basis for your post seems to do with filling every possible weak spot on the roster. We were 13-3 last year and I would say we have fewer weak spots than most and do have two #1 picks. In this era of salary cap you are going to have weak spots within a roster. There is no getting around this. The Patriots had/have many in there back 7 on defense.

At one point you sort of downplayed our second round pick, even calling it a third round pick. Then you make the case for swapping our two 1's for more of those same kind of pics which was a little confusing.

 

[StarHead69]

I think we only use our first rounders if one of the blue-chippers falls in our lap, otherwise trading down is what Jerry likes to do.

I am getting the feeling that there are only one or two "studs" at each position, followed by 3 or 4 guys who aren't far behind in talent... I wouldn't mind picking up 2nd and high third round picks in this draft. There aren't many guys in this draft who are going to start for us as rookies, and quite a few guys who look to be very good if given some time to develop.

 

[BourbonBalz]

Not many rookies are going to make our roster. We need to think quality rather than quantity. We need two corners, a very good WR, and a RB out of this draft. Everything else is just gravy.

 

[CATCH17]

I think we need to go ahead and start looking for Free Safety depth because unless Roy Williams turns his career around Hamlin will get moved to SS and Watkins will be the Free.

So if we are looking for Safeties I think we should prepare for Roy to have another lack luster season and Hamlin to get moved over as the starting SS and Roy to be let go after next season.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Good post and I agree with some of it and disagree with some of it but here are a few of my thoughts..

The whole basis for your post seems to do with filling every possible weak spot on the roster. We were 13-3 last year and I would say we have fewer weak spots than most and do have two #1 picks. In this era of salary cap you are going to have weak spots within a roster. There is no getting around this. The Patriots had/have many in there back 7 on defense.

At one point you sort of downplayed our second round pick, even calling it a third round pick. Then you make the case for swapping our two 1's for more of those same kind of pics which was a little confusing.

I dont think our record should even be mentioned in this. We could have very easily have been 10-6. We were not a strong 13-3. We were only a few rungs above what the Bears did a few years ago with Orton when they went 13-3.


I do not trust Jerry. He is gonna make a play for McFadden. Just watch.

 

[McCordsville Cowboy]

The more I look at the multitude of needs on this team, the more I'm convinced the percentages insist we use our #1's to trade down and pickup more picks.

While we say that we have primary needs at RB, WR and CB, I also think we have issues with ST coverage units and we need a big infusion of new return talent there, also.

Additionally, if Davis leaves (sort of sure he will), we are going to have a big hole in STs as well as safety depth. He stands for two players on our roster so that is two guys minimum we will need to replace once he's gone.

And when you look at our PR and KO return teams, we are completely lacking anybody on either of those teams that can threaten another team to break one or even get consistant returns to advance the field position grudge match in a game.

Now..at this point, I'm counting CB, RB, WR, KO and PR and Keith Davis being gone as 2 players to replace him (at safety and special team captain) as a minimum of needing to find 7 extremely solid players out of this draft. And it's actually more if we need to get some additional players on the ST units to improve coverage units.

Solution...

Draft the Zib and all is well.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

we should just use both of our picks.

 

[peplaw06]

Are you suggesting we need 10-12 players out of this draft? How ridiculous.

Where are they all going to fit? Did they expand roster limits to 70?

 

[Redball Express]

Good post and I agree with some of it and disagree with some of it but here are a few of my thoughts..

At one point you sort of downplayed our second round pick, even calling it a third round pick. Then you make the case for swapping our two 1's for more of those same kind of pics which was a little confusing.

Sorry for not expanding that thinking more..

If we made any trades of our #1's for selections in the 2nd and 3rd rds, it would obviously be for high picks in those rounds..obviously looking for something in the top 5 of each of those rounds to add to what we have.

As far as what we have, we have a #62 pick I believe in the 2nd rd..I beleive that's like next to last choice in that round, that's why I called it virtually a top of the round 3rd.

I'm not de-valuing it, I'm suggesting that unfortunately, it's not high up there, so it's going to probably not be in position to help us cherry pick the 2nd rd much. But if we had more high choices in the 2nd rd and the 3rd..then our #62 pick takes on more value for us as it's sandwiched in there and allows us to pick multiple high value players that maybe close in value going into the first of the 3rd round with our pick at #62 and followed closely by another one 5-10 picks later.

No matter what, the value of the #1's that we have would have to at least equal the value chart numbers for a trade value back into the 2nd or 3rd rds. to happen with each of those #1 choices and hopefully, if a team really wanted to move up, they might have to throw in a 6th or 7th to swing the deal or flip flop choices with us in those rounds with our choices there.

Then again, we may do better with a team depending on how badly they want to move up. And dangling the option of dealing again for #1's next year plus another pick to move back is always an option.

It all depends on what is needed and who the trading partner is and the value of their offer.

We got bad luck with both our trades involving future #1's to Buffalo and to Cleveland. Neither of those deals really panned out like they should have.

Both of those deals were targeted to be top 5 picks when they matured. Just didn't happen.

We'll see.

Thanks for the reply.

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS:starspin

 

[Redball Express]

Are you suggesting we need 10-12 players out of this draft? How ridiculous.

Where are they all going to fit? Did they expand roster limits to 70?

And if you do the math, based on my suggestions, depending on if our #1 picks are also going to play significant roles on the special teams, too..yes.

In fact, every year, we sign 8-12 rookies between the active roster and practice squad. With normally at least about 8 on the active squad.

And yes, I think there will be considerable turnover on STs, with as many as 6+ roster spots or more being churned minimum just to overhaul it and due to losing players.

We had some of the worst ST play I've seen from us in years last year in the second half of the season. The worst game actually other than the Jints playoff game was against the Pats. Every time I looked up, the Pats were starting at the 45 or better after KO and punts.

And that continued all year right up until we lost in the playoffs.I definitely hope our coaching staff is not hoping to go in with the same group this year and not upgrade it.

We'll all be throwing up..IMO..if that happens.

Tyson Thompson is gone, Keith Davis will be shortly, not to mention that Crayton hopefully will not be returning punts unless it's for fair catches deep in our end. Carpenter plays there and he's useless and I really can't name anybody by name other than Kevin Burnett who stands out on them other than the center and the two kickers.

Out of 22 starters, that's pretty lame.

And please tell me who is going to be returning KO's...?

Let's hope they are not on the roster yet. Otherwise, we are regressing quickly.

So yes, I strongly think I'm in the ball park according to what I see. It's obvious that some of these current players on STs are going to be cut to make room for fresh blood. And No, I don't think rosters are going to be 70 players.

But significant changes needed are going to be afoot unless I miss my guess.

I think the Cowboys also see it. I know their opponents see it. Just look at the stats.

Or lack of same.

The biggest reason our punter didn't make the Pro Bowl was because our PR coverage teams were terrible. It wasn't because he had problems kicking.

That's the way I see it. Glass a little more than 1/2 empty on these critical areas of multiple need if we are going to improve next year.

Just trying to be proactive and think out of the standard box.

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS:starspin

 

[big dog cowboy]

I do not trust Jerry. He is gonna make a play for McFadden. Just watch.

Silly boy. Don't you know Trix are for kids?

 

[Redball Express]

Not many rookies are going to make our roster. We need to think quality rather than quantity. We need two corners, a very good WR, and a RB out of this draft. Everything else is just gravy.

..the quality might be in the quantities of just moving back a round to get what we really need and profit in other areas of the team in doing so.

I'm not the only person suggesting trading at least our #28 to move back into the top of the 2nd rd. and picking up more picks being that the players from 20-50 are tightly bunched.

I'm just suggesting if these are correct observations, that we might be wise to look at really examining the possibilities and the values and trading both #1's if the deals are right.

..then we really can reduce risk and still have the 'quality' you suggest.

That's what I'm saying.

I don't think they are mutually exclusive like you suggest.

Thanks for the reply.

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS :starspin

 

[Teague31]

How many roster spots are actually going to be open?

2 RB's to replace JJ and Thompson
2 CB's to replace Reeves and Jones
a safety to replace Davis if he leaves

those are the only guarantees. of course if we acquire a good WR, someone will be gone (Glenn, Hurd, Austin).

 

[Hostile]

I think the absolute worst thing we can do is try to get cute with our Draft picks. If we sell the farm to trade up and get McFadden, it will blow up. History has shown that investing too much into one player and acquiring that player just doesn't work.

If we try and trade down and add picks we'd be doing so assuming a talent we want is going to be there. It's never safe to assume this. The best course of action when a team is this close to being what we all hope is to simply use our two 1sts wisely and benefit the most from them. This draft is deep at the positions we need.

Let's not stare holy gratuatous fortune in the face and think we can outsmart fate.

 

[peplaw06]

In fact, every year, we sign 8-12 rookies between the active roster and practice squad. With normally at least about 8 on the active squad.

Yeah, but you're talking about getting 7-8 draft picks in rounds 2 and 3? What happened to UDFA?

I don't want any more "roster bodies." I want PLAYERS. We need PLAYERS at RB, CB, and WR. We don't need bodies to fill out a roster and play special teams. If we draft players at those positions, they can push regulars and some talent is going to play special teams.

IMO you don't draft people with special teams in mind. You should draft PLAYERS who push for playing time on offense or defense. The more dpeth you have there, the more talent you can get on the ST squad.

If you have 7-8 picks in rounds 2 and 3, then one in each of the last 4 rounds, that's already 12 bodies. Why can't we just fill our roster with guys who can play offense or defense, then fill out Special Teams from the guys pushed out of PT?

Ever heard the saying "special teams wins championships?" Nope.

 

[Beast_from_East]

I think the absolute worst thing we can do is try to get cute with our Draft picks. If we sell the farm to trade up and get McFadden, it will blow up. History has shown that investing too much into one player and acquiring that player just doesn't work.

If we try and trade down and add picks we'd be doing so assuming a talent we want is going to be there. It's never safe to assume this. The best course of action when a team is this close to being what we all hope is to simply use our two 1sts wisely and benefit the most from them. This draft is deep at the positions we need.

Let's not stare holy gratuatous fortune in the face and think we can outsmart fate.

Excellent point Hostile, I think we need to take the phone off the hook in the War Room and just draft our board. We really only have 3 holes on this roster and that is #3 CB, #2 HB, and #? WR.

With 3 picks on day 1 (now only 1st and 2nd round) we can fill all 3 holes and use day 2 picks for depth, special teams, ect.....

If we just draft our board, we will be sitting pretty. That is the smart play here.

 

[BigDFan5]

Personally trading down both picks would be iuncredibly bad IMO


We have a very good roster already with few holes. I would rather trade both picks up and get a difference maker than trade down and get someone with less chance to be special

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Positions where a draft pcik could in theory step in on the roster

QB(1) Maybe 3rd QB slot
OT(0) Nope
OG/C (1) and this is a maybe because the team is high on Berger and Proctor. If McQuistan moves to guard and or beats out Kosier then this becomes a no way.
TE(0) Nope
WR(1) And this a maybe. TO, Crayton and Stanback are mortal locks and we have good possibilities in Glenn, Austin and Hurd. If Glenn is able t play this becomes VERY crowded.
RB(2) This also assumes we dont pick up someone in FA for the 3rd spot. 1 is definitely a draft need
DE(0) Spears, Canty, Hatcher, Bowen.
DT(1) Maybe assuming we want a big body in the middle and Ratlidd moving to DE but we do have Tank and Ratliff here.
OLB(1) Maybe if we want to upgrade Rogers at the 4th spot.
ILB(0) James, Thomas, Ayodele, Burnett, Carpenter
CB(2) Ball is our third corner right now. That is not good.
S(1) Brown and Watkins are back there but may want to add a true SS with Kiler leaving
K/P(0) Two probowlers.

Basically the only true needs are RB and CB. And the third running back doesnt need to be drafted. So that is three there. WR needs an infusion of youth but if we didnt draft one we'd still be set with Stanback, Austin and Hurd as backups.

Other than that its all fluff like a 4th OLB, a 'true' SS, an extra guard, a beefy NT or a 3rd QB. All guys that would be inactive on game day.

We need a RB and a CB in our first three picks. After that a rookie isnt going to see the fieldexcept maybe a top WR that really shines in camp.

 

[Redball Express]

How many roster spots are actually going to be open?

2 RB's to replace JJ and Thompson
2 CB's to replace Reeves and Jones
a safety to replace Davis if he leaves

those are the only guarantees. of course if we acquire a good WR, someone will be gone (Glenn, Hurd, Austin).

I think Davis' spots on the KO and PR coverage teams will have to be replaced and that's either going to be just one but probably two players having to replace what he did as a single player.

So that means add one more to your total above.

Then you have to decide if you intend to risk using your #2 or #3 WR you are going to draft also on punt coverage and on PR team as a returner of the ball, risking him to an injury.

If you do that, play him both ways, then you are fine. If not, if playing as the #3 WR and also having him backup Crayton as the #2 WR or want to actually have him split some time with Crayton at WR..do you also risk him on any special teams at all..?

Probably not. Then you need to draft a player that will do the punt return or KO return on the STs.

That means another guy needs to be added to your list above.

Same thing will happen at the CB and the RB positions with your new high draft picks.. Will you build a roster with these players expecting them to play important ST roles or because they are going to be getting significant snaps offensively and defensively in extremely high profile responsibilities of splitting carries with MBIII and having to play the 3rd CB in about 40% of the defensive snaps..

..or will you withhold them from special teams work of returning KO's or punts and elect instead to try to draft particular players to fill primarily those roles..??

If you are going to let them play several roles, then you are fine..don't need to get anybody else to replace them in those roles.

..if you want to play it safe and protect them so they can concentrate on their primary functions, RB and CB as platoon starters..

you then draft two more players to absorb their ST roles.

At that point, we are up to drafting 9 guys by my count to cover what is needed. Add to that 2-3 more guys that normally make the team as additional special team/depth players and we are at somewhere between 9-11 or 12 guys that need to be drafted..or signed from other teams from cutdowns or outright releases.

Whatever.

Or take some risks and try to keep it to your estimate of 5 and hope for the best that none of them get hurt, because if they do, you are really losing 2 players somewhere on your team and severely hampering your running game, your pass receiving game, your pass coverage game and also whipsawing your KO or PR teams if they go down.

We are absolutely in the age of specialization in the NFL and multiple substitution and drafting players to play exacting roles to get an edge on the opposing team.

I'm just suggesting we take the next progression in that theme. Use this draft to really crank that concept.

Prior to this year, I don't think you worried about any of that because we really were not championship caliber and you rolled the dice...playing the odds...trying to still draft or sign FA players to build the team.

The team is built.

But this year, I say you don't play the against the odds. I'm not convinced we are only 1 or 2 or 2 or 3 players away from being champions.

I think you take an aggressive yet conservative approach to address these various needs now and plan for limiting the rookie platoon players we are going to need to perform at a high level from increased injury and having them have to split their time learning other positions for the time being.

We have to expect injuries at WR, RB and CB starters each year. We've had them each year. So prepare for it and get these new guys ready and give them clear roles and limit their being overwhelmed mentally or physically and hopefully able to contribute all year long.

We can do this and I think it makes total sense if we are really that close to a championship run this year. Draft for quality and quantity and set us up for just an overwhelmingly complete roster from defense to offense to STs.

I think when you have like 13-15 Pro Bowl players on your team (McBriar certainly is of that caliber and didn't go this year and with Zach Thomas, if he's healthy, he's a Pro Bowl type), you can afford to take a different approach to getting to the next level that could get you there and keep you there for several years if done right.

That's my 2 cents, again.

We'll see.

:starspinReDBALL ExpreSS:starspin