Doomsday101
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All across the NFL, coaches, general managers and scouts have been sitting in front of their computers this week, eagerly anticipating the release of my fourth annual NFL draft overrated/underrated column. Why, just this week I got yet another call from eternally grateful Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren.
"Thanks again, Stewart, for the tip on Lofa Tatupu, your underrated linebacker prospect last year. As you know, he had a pretty good rookie year for us."
My pleasure, Mike. Though may I recommend to your colleagues to try tuning into a couple USC games next time.
Wait ... the phone's ringing again. Well, hello Marvin Lewis. "What can I say, Stewart. You were right about Chris Henry. For a third-round pick, he sure added a lot to our offense." No problem, Marvin. And I'm sure West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez would like to thank you for taking that head case off his hands.
Yep, it was a pretty good last year in the overrated/underrated department. Darren Sproles underrated? Check. Fabian Washington overrated? Check. In fact I bet this is another congratulatory call coming in now... Oh crap, it's Bears coach Lovie Smith. "You know I'm never going to let you live down that Tommie Harris/overrated bit two years ago." Yeah, yeah, I know. Eli Manning still calls to taunt me every two weeks as well. What can I say, some years pan out better than others.
But I've got a good feeling about 2006 ...
Quarterback
Overrated: Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Let me start by saying I do think the pride of the Commodores could well be a solid NFL quarterback. Considering he spent much of his career running from unblocked pass-rushers and throwing to third-rate SEC receivers (until last season, when freshman stud Earl Bennett came on the scene), Cutler's accomplishments at Vandy -- including 3,073 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a senior -- were nothing short of remarkable. But the mere fact that many among the NFL cognoscenti are even thinking about taking Cutler ahead of the most dangerous quarterback to come through the college ranks in years (hint: rhymes with "rinse tongue") makes Cutler overrated -- and raises serious questions about how some of these scouts themselves would perform on the Wonderlic.
Underrated: Brodie Croyle, Alabama
Considering how much emphasis the NFL puts on arm strength, you'd think they'd be falling all over themselves for this guy. Croyle has a gun (ask the Florida secondary). His mechanics are impeccable. And his natural leadership abilities had a great deal to do with the Tide jumping to a 9-0 start last season. I'm sure his substantial injury history (he underwent shoulder and ACL surgeries while in Tuscaloosa) are helping to knock him down the pecking order, but the fifth-year senior was a picture of health last season when he completed nearly 60 percent of his throws for 2,499 yards, 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This, despite the fact he played behind a horrendous offensive line that allowed 39 sacks and, after losing Tyrone Prothro to a broken leg, had to work with a largely unreliable receiving corps.
Running back
Overrated: Laurence Maroney, Minnesota
Maroney is fast. Very fast. He ran for 1,464 yards and 1,348 yards the past two seasons. Nothing wrong with that, right? But a whole lot of that yardage came from the speedster finding a crease -- he played behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in college football the past few seasons -- and exploding to the outside. Those gaping holes won't be there at the next level, and the closing defenders will be a step or two faster. The 5-11, 210-pounder will have to become a more physical runner, which was never his forte at Minnesota. His first two seasons, that task fell to the bruising Marion Barber III. It should also be noted that Gophers coach Glen Mason's system has churned out one 1,000-yard rusher after another, of whom only Barber has made a dent in the pros. Maroney is probably his most athletic back to date, but a first-rounder? Questionable.
Underrated: LenDale White, USC
Every year, league personnel manage to find at least one draft whipping boy to unnecessarily crucify, and apparently this year it's White's turn. Comparisons to Maurice Clarett?? Are you serious??? White, to the best of my knowledge, has never been arrested, was never caught taking extra benefits or lying to NCAA investigators and never mouthed off about poor treatment by his school. White has a bad attitude? So bad that he never said boo after dropping behind Reggie Bush on the depth chart. All this guy did the past two years is run over people, to the tune of six yards a carry and 36 touchdowns. Oh, and about those weight and injury things? He was overweight at the Rose Bowl and ran for 124 yards on 20 carries. And against Oklahoma in the 2005 Orange Bowl, he ran for 118 yards on a bad ankle.
Wide receiver
Overrated: Sinorice Moss, Miami
Apparently family lineage has become part of the draft criteria. That's the only reason I can think why Santana's younger brother would be regarded so universally high in the current projections (that, and the customary "... but he tore it up at the Senior Bowl.") Sure, Sinorice passes the eyeball test. He's fast and athletic, no question about it. And he's got that short, jitterbug frame just like his brother. Here's the difference: Santana was an absolute stud in college. Sinorice didn't do much of anything until his senior year, and even then he wasn't among the nation's top 100 receivers (37 catches for 614 yards). Sorry, but I put more stock in four years of college production, in games that count, than one week of practices and an all-star game.
Underrated: Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
This one's a little nit-picky, seeing as Holmes is rated as one of the top two receivers (the other being Florida's Chad Jackson) on virtually every draft board. The fact that he might not crack the top-15 overall, however, is downright hilarious. Holmes may not have Randy Moss' size, but talent-wise he's everything you could want in a receiver. He torched just about every cornerback in the Big Ten at some point the past few years, culminating in a tremendous junior season in which he morphed into the ultimate home-run threat, catching 53 passes for 977 yards (18.4 per catch) and 11 touchdowns. To me, he's clearly a better talent than either Troy Williamson (who went seventh last year) or Reggie Williams (ninth in 2004).
Offensive line
Overrated: Winston Justice, USC
The former Long Beach Poly standout has had a massive rep from the day he walked on campus, drawing comparisons to Trojan legend Anthony Munoz when he started at left tackle. But then he missed an entire season when he was suspended for pointing a plastic gun at a student. When he returned last year, he wasn't all that dominating, and in fact the dirty little secret at Heritage Hall was that Justice, easily the most hyped of USC's lineman, was actually the unit's weak link (relatively speaking). Scouts are enamored with his physical capabilities (6-6, 320 pounds) and athleticism, but in truth he's an extremely risky pick who could easily wind up a bust.
Underrated: Marcus McNeill, Auburn
It's absolutely flabbergasting that this guy is expected to slip to the second round. For one thing, he's a towering 6-7, 336 pounds. He started four consecutive years in the SEC, facing some of the most menacing pass-rushers in the country, and didn't allow a single sack the past three seasons. He was the anchor of a powerful Tigers O-line that helped produce the conference's top offense last season and a powerful running game throughout his career. Apparently there are concerns about his back (he's had chronic problems), but I'd be more concerned for the backs of the defenders he pancakes.
Defensive line
Overrated: Gabe Watson, Michigan
It must be an extremely weak year at defensive tackle if Watson ranks among the top three. At 6-3, 340, there's no question he's an impressive specimen, and there were certainly times during his Michigan career where he was a dominating factor. But he also drove Wolverines coach Lloyd Carr bonkers with his inconsistency and failure to play up to his potential. In fact, Carr pulled him from the starting lineup for four games last season, a pretty drastic measure considering he was regarded as the Wolverines' best defensive player.
Underrated: Jesse Mahelona, Tennessee
After an absolutely dominant first season in Knoxville (he was a junior college transfer) in which he notched an SEC-leading 18.5 sacks, the Hawaii native's production dropped last year (eight sacks), but that doesn't mean he wasn't still a disruptive force. In fact Tennessee coaches consider him in the same class as such former Vols standouts as John Henderson and Albert Haynesworth. He's a big-play guy who gets his body extremely low to the ground, allowing him to streak into the backfield and drag down opposing ballcarriers or quarterbacks. I'm genuinely surprised he's so lowly regarded.
Linebacker
Overrated: Ernie Sims, Florida State
Call me crazy, but I never bought into the Ernie Sims hype machine. Sure, he's a phenomenal athlete who explodes off the snap and from time to time could force a fumble or throw a running back for a loss. But there were plenty of other times where he was caught out of position, over-pursued a runner or flat out free-styled too much. I do think he will be a significant player in the NFL, perhaps eventually bordering on greatness, but I don't think he's the same kind of can't miss no-brainer as A.J. Hawk, or all that much better than his much-less heralded teammate, A.J. Nicholson.
Underrated: Spencer Havner, UCLA
By all accounts, Havner is considered a second-day guy, which is odd. All he does is make tackles. Lots of them. All over the field. He had 96 as a freshman, 82 as a sophomore, 125 as a junior and 99 as a senior. Last year he also added 15 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries. I realize he's more instinctual than athletic, and that he was often the lone bright spot on a really bad defense, but it's hard to believe scouts aren't willing to put more stock in four years of solid, consistent production.
Defensive back
Overrated: Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
This one isn't so much for his play on the field (though I do think the perception of Williams as an Antrel Rolle-type lockdown guy was a bit skewed; he does blow coverage from time to time). Multiple sources familiar with Williams have told me he has some major character issues. His brash cockiness was no secret in Blacksburg, where head coach Frank Beamer barred him from speaking to the media during the 2004 season. Whichever team drafts him will be investing several million dollars in a potential powder keg.
Underrated: Will Blackmon, Boston College
Geez, you move to receiver for a year and they forget all about you. Blackmon is buried far down most cornerbacks lists, which is puzzling, considering a year ago this time he was widely regarded as one of the top college corners. He's a smooth, fast (4.47) playmaker who notched three interceptions in both his sophomore and junior seasons before moving to receiver last year and catching 51 passes for 763 yards. If nothing else, Blackmon would make a great return specialist for someone, but based on current projections he might not even get drafted.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/stewart_mandel/04/26/overrated.underrated/index.html
"Thanks again, Stewart, for the tip on Lofa Tatupu, your underrated linebacker prospect last year. As you know, he had a pretty good rookie year for us."
My pleasure, Mike. Though may I recommend to your colleagues to try tuning into a couple USC games next time.
Wait ... the phone's ringing again. Well, hello Marvin Lewis. "What can I say, Stewart. You were right about Chris Henry. For a third-round pick, he sure added a lot to our offense." No problem, Marvin. And I'm sure West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez would like to thank you for taking that head case off his hands.
Yep, it was a pretty good last year in the overrated/underrated department. Darren Sproles underrated? Check. Fabian Washington overrated? Check. In fact I bet this is another congratulatory call coming in now... Oh crap, it's Bears coach Lovie Smith. "You know I'm never going to let you live down that Tommie Harris/overrated bit two years ago." Yeah, yeah, I know. Eli Manning still calls to taunt me every two weeks as well. What can I say, some years pan out better than others.
But I've got a good feeling about 2006 ...
Quarterback
Overrated: Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt
Let me start by saying I do think the pride of the Commodores could well be a solid NFL quarterback. Considering he spent much of his career running from unblocked pass-rushers and throwing to third-rate SEC receivers (until last season, when freshman stud Earl Bennett came on the scene), Cutler's accomplishments at Vandy -- including 3,073 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a senior -- were nothing short of remarkable. But the mere fact that many among the NFL cognoscenti are even thinking about taking Cutler ahead of the most dangerous quarterback to come through the college ranks in years (hint: rhymes with "rinse tongue") makes Cutler overrated -- and raises serious questions about how some of these scouts themselves would perform on the Wonderlic.
Underrated: Brodie Croyle, Alabama
Considering how much emphasis the NFL puts on arm strength, you'd think they'd be falling all over themselves for this guy. Croyle has a gun (ask the Florida secondary). His mechanics are impeccable. And his natural leadership abilities had a great deal to do with the Tide jumping to a 9-0 start last season. I'm sure his substantial injury history (he underwent shoulder and ACL surgeries while in Tuscaloosa) are helping to knock him down the pecking order, but the fifth-year senior was a picture of health last season when he completed nearly 60 percent of his throws for 2,499 yards, 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This, despite the fact he played behind a horrendous offensive line that allowed 39 sacks and, after losing Tyrone Prothro to a broken leg, had to work with a largely unreliable receiving corps.
Running back
Overrated: Laurence Maroney, Minnesota
Maroney is fast. Very fast. He ran for 1,464 yards and 1,348 yards the past two seasons. Nothing wrong with that, right? But a whole lot of that yardage came from the speedster finding a crease -- he played behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in college football the past few seasons -- and exploding to the outside. Those gaping holes won't be there at the next level, and the closing defenders will be a step or two faster. The 5-11, 210-pounder will have to become a more physical runner, which was never his forte at Minnesota. His first two seasons, that task fell to the bruising Marion Barber III. It should also be noted that Gophers coach Glen Mason's system has churned out one 1,000-yard rusher after another, of whom only Barber has made a dent in the pros. Maroney is probably his most athletic back to date, but a first-rounder? Questionable.
Underrated: LenDale White, USC
Every year, league personnel manage to find at least one draft whipping boy to unnecessarily crucify, and apparently this year it's White's turn. Comparisons to Maurice Clarett?? Are you serious??? White, to the best of my knowledge, has never been arrested, was never caught taking extra benefits or lying to NCAA investigators and never mouthed off about poor treatment by his school. White has a bad attitude? So bad that he never said boo after dropping behind Reggie Bush on the depth chart. All this guy did the past two years is run over people, to the tune of six yards a carry and 36 touchdowns. Oh, and about those weight and injury things? He was overweight at the Rose Bowl and ran for 124 yards on 20 carries. And against Oklahoma in the 2005 Orange Bowl, he ran for 118 yards on a bad ankle.
Wide receiver
Overrated: Sinorice Moss, Miami
Apparently family lineage has become part of the draft criteria. That's the only reason I can think why Santana's younger brother would be regarded so universally high in the current projections (that, and the customary "... but he tore it up at the Senior Bowl.") Sure, Sinorice passes the eyeball test. He's fast and athletic, no question about it. And he's got that short, jitterbug frame just like his brother. Here's the difference: Santana was an absolute stud in college. Sinorice didn't do much of anything until his senior year, and even then he wasn't among the nation's top 100 receivers (37 catches for 614 yards). Sorry, but I put more stock in four years of college production, in games that count, than one week of practices and an all-star game.
Underrated: Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
This one's a little nit-picky, seeing as Holmes is rated as one of the top two receivers (the other being Florida's Chad Jackson) on virtually every draft board. The fact that he might not crack the top-15 overall, however, is downright hilarious. Holmes may not have Randy Moss' size, but talent-wise he's everything you could want in a receiver. He torched just about every cornerback in the Big Ten at some point the past few years, culminating in a tremendous junior season in which he morphed into the ultimate home-run threat, catching 53 passes for 977 yards (18.4 per catch) and 11 touchdowns. To me, he's clearly a better talent than either Troy Williamson (who went seventh last year) or Reggie Williams (ninth in 2004).
Offensive line
Overrated: Winston Justice, USC
The former Long Beach Poly standout has had a massive rep from the day he walked on campus, drawing comparisons to Trojan legend Anthony Munoz when he started at left tackle. But then he missed an entire season when he was suspended for pointing a plastic gun at a student. When he returned last year, he wasn't all that dominating, and in fact the dirty little secret at Heritage Hall was that Justice, easily the most hyped of USC's lineman, was actually the unit's weak link (relatively speaking). Scouts are enamored with his physical capabilities (6-6, 320 pounds) and athleticism, but in truth he's an extremely risky pick who could easily wind up a bust.
Underrated: Marcus McNeill, Auburn
It's absolutely flabbergasting that this guy is expected to slip to the second round. For one thing, he's a towering 6-7, 336 pounds. He started four consecutive years in the SEC, facing some of the most menacing pass-rushers in the country, and didn't allow a single sack the past three seasons. He was the anchor of a powerful Tigers O-line that helped produce the conference's top offense last season and a powerful running game throughout his career. Apparently there are concerns about his back (he's had chronic problems), but I'd be more concerned for the backs of the defenders he pancakes.
Defensive line
Overrated: Gabe Watson, Michigan
It must be an extremely weak year at defensive tackle if Watson ranks among the top three. At 6-3, 340, there's no question he's an impressive specimen, and there were certainly times during his Michigan career where he was a dominating factor. But he also drove Wolverines coach Lloyd Carr bonkers with his inconsistency and failure to play up to his potential. In fact, Carr pulled him from the starting lineup for four games last season, a pretty drastic measure considering he was regarded as the Wolverines' best defensive player.
Underrated: Jesse Mahelona, Tennessee
After an absolutely dominant first season in Knoxville (he was a junior college transfer) in which he notched an SEC-leading 18.5 sacks, the Hawaii native's production dropped last year (eight sacks), but that doesn't mean he wasn't still a disruptive force. In fact Tennessee coaches consider him in the same class as such former Vols standouts as John Henderson and Albert Haynesworth. He's a big-play guy who gets his body extremely low to the ground, allowing him to streak into the backfield and drag down opposing ballcarriers or quarterbacks. I'm genuinely surprised he's so lowly regarded.
Linebacker
Overrated: Ernie Sims, Florida State
Call me crazy, but I never bought into the Ernie Sims hype machine. Sure, he's a phenomenal athlete who explodes off the snap and from time to time could force a fumble or throw a running back for a loss. But there were plenty of other times where he was caught out of position, over-pursued a runner or flat out free-styled too much. I do think he will be a significant player in the NFL, perhaps eventually bordering on greatness, but I don't think he's the same kind of can't miss no-brainer as A.J. Hawk, or all that much better than his much-less heralded teammate, A.J. Nicholson.
Underrated: Spencer Havner, UCLA
By all accounts, Havner is considered a second-day guy, which is odd. All he does is make tackles. Lots of them. All over the field. He had 96 as a freshman, 82 as a sophomore, 125 as a junior and 99 as a senior. Last year he also added 15 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries. I realize he's more instinctual than athletic, and that he was often the lone bright spot on a really bad defense, but it's hard to believe scouts aren't willing to put more stock in four years of solid, consistent production.
Defensive back
Overrated: Jimmy Williams, Virginia Tech
This one isn't so much for his play on the field (though I do think the perception of Williams as an Antrel Rolle-type lockdown guy was a bit skewed; he does blow coverage from time to time). Multiple sources familiar with Williams have told me he has some major character issues. His brash cockiness was no secret in Blacksburg, where head coach Frank Beamer barred him from speaking to the media during the 2004 season. Whichever team drafts him will be investing several million dollars in a potential powder keg.
Underrated: Will Blackmon, Boston College
Geez, you move to receiver for a year and they forget all about you. Blackmon is buried far down most cornerbacks lists, which is puzzling, considering a year ago this time he was widely regarded as one of the top college corners. He's a smooth, fast (4.47) playmaker who notched three interceptions in both his sophomore and junior seasons before moving to receiver last year and catching 51 passes for 763 yards. If nothing else, Blackmon would make a great return specialist for someone, but based on current projections he might not even get drafted.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/stewart_mandel/04/26/overrated.underrated/index.html
