Doomsay
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SMCowboy;2756011 said:I am not doubting that Walters Football is any less reliable than any other online mock draft. What I am saying is that it is beyond STUPID to use any online mock draft to determine if a player is a a "reach" or not, when they are only right half of the time at best..... With Walters this time, he was actually WRONG more often than he was right. And if you take out the first round (which anyone with half a brain can get 70+ percent of the picks right), these sites are LUCKY to get one out of every 3 picks right. Yet we use them determine if a guy was a "reach" or not....
In the real world, if you are only right 1/3 of the time, you are a laughing joke. Yet, alot of people use mock drafts which are only right 1/3 of the time as gospel truth.....
Yup, upon further review, I agree with you.
I thought that I was supporting someone that was getting pounded for using that on-line source. The walter site is useful in that it lists 12-15 players by position, so It probably made it easier to quote for the latter rounds. Looking at a complete draft, I'm sure nobody is very useful Walter Floyd, Harry or Rich.
It was an interesting evening looking at all of the free draft sites, everything kind of goes to crap after the first 2 rounds - like you suggest. We had 2 picks in the real top 100, so it's hard to even use those sites to shed light on the majority of our picks - top rated analysts tend to start contracting each other after the first two rounds.
There is obviously a real correlation between a player's actual draft round and his ultimate success in the NFL, especially at the upper levels. Beyond a player's college success and physical/mental composition, the teams are presumably bringing in athletes that will succeed within their systems. I'd imagine that last idiosyncratic element would be next to impossible for a non-scout to handicap. It would be interesting to see how accurate non-team sources do vs the teams in predicting 3-5-7 year success of their respective top 3-5 round picks.