Basic rules to live by in FA

jterrell

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As we start FA and everyone freaks out over every player we don't sign league-wide thought I'd offer some basic rules to keep us all sane.

1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.

Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.
 

Sydla

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With Dak, you'd also be close to violating your rule #2 about paying for potential. Because on some level, if you think he still needs work in reading defenses, footwork, mechanics, you are, in fact, banking on his future potential if you sign him long term to a pretty big deal.
 

JBell

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Read the first line of #4, stopped and clicked like before even finishing.

Being upset at Lee making 3.5 mil isn't silly though. He looked finished last season. Not only that, but 3.5 mil is low-end starter money and the defense hardly has 3 LB's on the field at the same time.
 

jterrell

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Read the first line of #4, stopped and clicked like before even finishing.

Being upset at Lee making 3.5 mil isn't silly though. He looked finished last season. Not only that, but 3.5 mil is low-end starter money and the defense hardly has 3 LB's on the field at the same time.
Richard actually uses 3 LB quite a lot.
And Damien Wilson is a FA.
Last year Lee played 21% of the snaps and Wilson played 28%.
You'd ideally have Lee play those two combined and earn the rest of his salary as a coach.
Again when you've had a strong list of LBs develop from later round picks and the only tie to them all is Sean Lee I'd value that a lot.
Would Hitchens have made 9M a year if not for Lee in meeting rooms?
Would Wilson be in line for his big pay day if not for Lee?
Would LVE have been as good as a rookie? LVE says no.

3.5 for Lee for 3-4 years would be insane but one year? Sign me up.
Meantime we go draft another LB round 4-5 and have him help develop that guy this year so he can become the 3rd or 4th guy next year when Lee is coaching.

Other thing is this.
I'm not paying Lee 3+M in dead cap and setting him free to go to Philly where is from and teach that defense how to shut us down even more efficiently.
I'd rather eat a little extra cost but keep him this year and have him move to coaching next year.

++Lee was pretty bad at times last year but he was our best LB versus the Rams. --not saying much I know.
 

Verdict

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As we start FA and everyone freaks out over every player we don't sign league-wide thought I'd offer some basic rules to keep us all sane.

1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.

Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.

I was with you all the way to the Sean Lee part. Pay Lee to be a coach and watch film with the youngsters. But don't pay the guy as a player. Move on now and save the roster spot and the cap room.
 

Creeper

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Golden Rule: Don't fall in love with your own players because drafted or signed them. See every player as if he is a free agent and pay him a fair market value. Overpaying your own players is just as bad as overpaying for a free agent who never amounts to what you thought he was. Personal bias is doom.

Silver Rule: Don't extend players to create cap space because you overpaid them to begin with. If you have $20 million in dead cap money that's the equivalent of 2 or 3 high priced free agents with pro-rated bonuses. The Cowboys have a rule of not signing tier 1 free agents because they think they are overpriced. But paying too much for a quality player beats the heck out of dead money. Dead money can block or tackle. It can't catch passes or break tackles. Dead money is like a player(s) with a broken leg.

Bronze Rule: Signing one quality Free Agent is better than signing two scrubs. When signing free agents, its not quantity over quality unless you are looking for depth. But when you have a deefinite hole to fill, fill it with one guy who you know can play. Example: Nate Livings and McKenzie Bernadeau. Sure, they added depth, but neither was a quality starter which Dallas desperately needed at the time. Need another example? Deonte Thompson and Allen Hurns. Two medicore receivers does not make a #1 receiver.
 

jterrell

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I was with you all the way to the Sean Lee part. Pay Lee to be a coach and watch film with the youngsters. But don't pay the guy as a player. Move on now and save the roster spot and the cap room.
The other reason hand wringing over Lee makes no sense to me is they handed him zero money, it was a straight up cap reduction move.
Tweaks a hammy in camp and he can simply be cut at no cost to you (plus hopefully convinced to immediately move to a coaching role) at all beyond the dead money he carried anyway.

I have issues with bloggers and other media who seem lazy on some of these takes.
Can be hard to tell at times who is lazy and who is just working nonsense for retweets but generally pattern emerges....
 

charron

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Rule #11. No one is untouchable, shop them all and then decide what deals to take.
 

BigCatMonaco

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As we start FA and everyone freaks out over every player we don't sign league-wide thought I'd offer some basic rules to keep us all sane.

1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.

Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.


The logic and thought that are inside this post made
Me question where I was reading it.


I almost 100% agree sir.
 

john van brocklin

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As we start FA and everyone freaks out over every player we don't sign league-wide thought I'd offer some basic rules to keep us all sane.

1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.

Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.
Very nice post, sir!
 

Avery

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There's also something to be said about giving yourself a buffer for June 1 cuts.
 

AKATheRake

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With Dak, you'd also be close to violating your rule #2 about paying for potential. Because on some level, if you think he still needs work in reading defenses, footwork, mechanics, you are, in fact, banking on his future potential if you sign him long term to a pretty big deal.

I think Dak is going to look a lot better this season with the continuity at WR and the o-line. Not to mention Zeeke again should play the full slate of games. It's going to cost us even more next season.

Like it or not, Dak is going to get $25 - $30 million a season
 

jterrell

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Daniel Snyder doesn't approve this message.
The wild thing is that is from a "The Athletic" Philly beat writer and they have violated about half those rules.
In fairness guy covered SEA most of his career and is new Philly beat but it is pretty hilarious in that sense.
 

CCBoy

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As to options now, Dallas could still set some of the market values by doing a couple of contracts, on their own players...such as Cooper and Lawrence.
 

LarryCanadian

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I think updates say Lee's contract is even lower than the original $3.5 million estimate - or i might have misread it. IIRC $2 million with a bunch of incentives - some of which will be pretty easy and some of which are unlikely based on Jaylon and LVE getting majority of playing time.

I think that is a great O/P. While I do think that most teams (other than Pats) usually have to dip a toe or two into FA at least in the mid-tier pricing/talent range to push them over the top during a Super Bowl window - you have to say the Cowboys have been sticking to their guns and their newer (last 5 years or so?) policy of not paying top tier free agents (the days of Greg Hardy seem LOOOONG gone). Might not be exciting during Free Agent season or sexy from a "fantasy" football perspective, but gotta give them credit for discipline of sticking with their approach - whether we agree with it or not.

In a game of inches and milliseconds where one win can mean difference of even making the playoffs, getting a critical bye, or home team advantage, having glaring holes gets exploited in this day and age.........Cowboys do seem to always have one or two nagging holes either in talent or acceptable depth levels - but most teams do nowadays - Cap is tough.

Safety has been a long, long term area of need - situation improved when corner stabilized and pass rush improved. Now Irving is done, Gregory continues to be a huge ? with regards to being able to be with team and develop and even play. Taco still has Jury out and seems pouty but still has a chance. So, SAFETY might become a big issue again as QBs get more comfy and have more time to throw deeper. Some speed on O was improved with Amari Cooper, but could use a backup RB with Austin still iffy or another fast WR/Slot guy with Beasley gone....(traded away Beasley's replacement that we drafted a couple years ago). Love Gallup and if we use Cooper in slot more a burner on outside at WR might still be a great fit....

I think Dline across the board needs FA attention and safety and possibly RB. Oline, backup swing tackle if we don't re-sign the Pats ex OT. Does Parnell still have gas in tank for a year or two - would he be relatively cheap?
 

TWOK11

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With Dak, you'd also be close to violating your rule #2 about paying for potential. Because on some level, if you think he still needs work in reading defenses, footwork, mechanics, you are, in fact, banking on his future potential if you sign him long term to a pretty big deal.

QB is generally the exception the the rule though as they usually peak around age 30-32. Most QBs are usually near the end of their second contract (first “big” contract) before they realize their full potential.

Look at Brees, he was in his sixth year before he joined the conversation as an elite QB and didn’t start putting up guady numbers until he was 30 in his 8th season. If the QBs currently in the HOF, almost all of them had their best statistical year after age 28 and over half after age 30.
 
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