jterrell
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As we start FA and everyone freaks out over every player we don't sign league-wide thought I'd offer some basic rules to keep us all sane.
1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.
Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.
1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.
Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.