Basic rules to live by in FA

[jterrell]

I think updates say Lee's contract is even lower than the original $3.5 million estimate - or i might have misread it. IIRC $2 million with a bunch of incentives - some of which will be pretty easy and some of which are unlikely based on Jaylon and LVE getting majority of playing time.

I think that is a great O/P. While I do think that most teams (other than Pats) usually have to dip a toe or two into FA at least in the mid-tier pricing/talent range to push them over the top during a Super Bowl window - you have to say the Cowboys have been sticking to their guns and their newer (last 5 years or so?) policy of not paying top tier free agents (the days of Greg Hardy seem LOOOONG gone). Might not be exciting during Free Agent season or sexy from a "fantasy" football perspective, but gotta give them credit for discipline of sticking with their approach - whether we agree with it or not.

In a game of inches and milliseconds where one win can mean difference of even making the playoffs, getting a critical bye, or home team advantage, having glaring holes gets exploited in this day and age.........Cowboys do seem to always have one or two nagging holes either in talent or acceptable depth levels - but most teams do nowadays - Cap is tough.

Safety has been a long, long term area of need - situation improved when corner stabilized and pass rush improved. Now Irving is done, Gregory continues to be a huge ? with regards to being able to be with team and develop and even play. Taco still has Jury out and seems pouty but still has a chance. So, SAFETY might become a big issue again as QBs get more comfy and have more time to throw deeper. Some speed on O was improved with Amari Cooper, but could use a backup RB with Austin still iffy or another fast WR/Slot guy with Beasley gone....(traded away Beasley's replacement that we drafted a couple years ago). Love Gallup and if we use Cooper in slot more a burner on outside at WR might still be a great fit....

I think Dline across the board needs FA attention and safety and possibly RB. Oline, backup swing tackle if we don't re-sign the Pats ex OT. Does Parnell still have gas in tank for a year or two - would he be relatively cheap?

Basically 3M.
2M base plus a 1m roster bonus that will count against the cap.
Some other incentives that are NLTBE (i.e. he didn't meet them last year) could drive price higher but only at end of the year.
Whatever the case it is a good price considering what LB have been paid last 2 off-seasons.
Guys that can't hold his jock are getting 8m a year.

This time every off-season we have holes and then we judiciously full many/most of them cheaply.

Occasionally we do not and it hurts us but you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Fiscal responsibility is fun for exactly no one. That's why Dads or Moms are always the bad guy.
Cowboys fans are like children with no concept of budgets.

 

[jterrell]

QB is generally the exception the the rule though as they usually peak around age 30-32. Most QBs are usually near the end of their second contract (first “big” contract) before they realize their full potential.

Look at Brees, he was in his sixth year before he joined the conversation as an elite QB and didn’t start putting up guady numbers until he was 30 in his 8th season. If the QBs currently in the HOF, almost all of them had their best statistical year after age 28 and over half after age 30.

QBs are the exception. As are OL.
Those guys are worth more at 29 then 24 eight times out of ten.
But that is unique to those positions alone.

 

[waldoputty]

As we start FA and everyone freaks out over every player we don't sign league-wide thought I'd offer some basic rules to keep us all sane.

1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.

Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.

all reasonable, but this approach may get you a good team consistently instead of a great team half of the time.
you have to take into account the psychology that the players and agents are evolving into - see pittsburgh brown and bell.
if you have a number of core players, then the franchise tag is a dangerous game and you may be better off overpay somewhat to keep the good relations.
there is a point where you are sabotaging your best years of zeke where worrying about the cap 3 years from now.
cowboys think they are smarter than everyone but they are not.

 

[Reverend Conehead]

#11. Free agency cannot make up for bad drafting. You must build primarily through the draft. Free agency can help you to get specific needs met, but you cannot build from the ground up via free agency.

 

[jterrell]

all reasonable, but this approach may get you a good team consistently instead of a great team half of the time.
you have to take into account the psychology that the players and agents are evolving into - see pittsburgh brown and bell.
if you have a number of core players, then the franchise tag is a dangerous game and you may be better off overpay somewhat to keep the good relations.
there is a point where you are sabotaging your best years of zeke where worrying about the cap 3 years from now.
cowboys think they are smarter than everyone but they are not.

The Cowboys thought they were smarter than everyone else when they were flipping the bills due off to next year.
I railed against it then to the dismay of many and I'll rail against it now.
There are many, many reasons why it is bad business.

As to half the time, simply .. no.
No team can do this half the time.
They can do this for a few years in a row where reality is they only truly benefited once. Then the fall comes.
If you spend 150M on a 100M cap and push 50-M forward divided by 5, it will all eventually cost you that 50M. You start year 2 -10M. Flip 50M again and you free up 40M but you will be -20M in year 3.
When a player gets injured(Dez/Sean Lee), goes nuts(Ratliff), or simply under-performs long term you are stuck because it is more expensive to cut them then keep them because you aren't paying base wages anymore, you are counting on paying it all as bonus/restructure money.

The only time this really makes sense is in the last couple years of a truly special QB's career.
And even then you are just planning on tanking as he leaves if you do basically which allows you to clean up the cap.

 

[LarryCanadian]

I think updates say Lee's contract is even lower than the original $3.5 million estimate - or i might have misread it. IIRC $2 million with a bunch of incentives - some of which will be pretty easy and some of which are unlikely based on Jaylon and LVE getting majority of playing time.

I think that is a great O/P. While I do think that most teams (other than Pats) usually have to dip a toe or two into FA at least in the mid-tier pricing/talent range to push them over the top during a Super Bowl window - you have to say the Cowboys have been sticking to their guns and their newer (last 5 years or so?) policy of not paying top tier free agents (the days of Greg Hardy seem LOOOONG gone). Might not be exciting during Free Agent season or sexy from a "fantasy" football perspective, but gotta give them credit for discipline of sticking with their approach - whether we agree with it or not.

In a game of inches and milliseconds where one win can mean difference of even making the playoffs, getting a critical bye, or home team advantage, having glaring holes gets exploited in this day and age.........Cowboys do seem to always have one or two nagging holes either in talent or acceptable depth levels - but most teams do nowadays - Cap is tough.

Safety has been a long, long term area of need - situation improved when corner stabilized and pass rush improved. Now Irving is done, Gregory continues to be a huge ? with regards to being able to be with team and develop and even play. Taco still has Jury out and seems pouty but still has a chance. So, SAFETY might become a big issue again as QBs get more comfy and have more time to throw deeper. Some speed on O was improved with Amari Cooper, but could use a backup RB with Austin still iffy or another fast WR/Slot guy with Beasley gone....(traded away Beasley's replacement that we drafted a couple years ago). Love Gallup and if we use Cooper in slot more a burner on outside at WR might still be a great fit....

I think Dline across the board needs FA attention and safety and possibly RB. Oline, backup swing tackle if we don't re-sign the Pats ex OT. Does Parnell still have gas in tank for a year or two - would he be relatively cheap?

Nevermind - they re-signed Fleming for 2 years - I thought he filled in well when needed despite not showing great in training Camp last year.

 

[jterrell]

Nevermind - they re-signed Fleming for 2 years - I thought he filled in well when needed despite not showing great in training Camp last year.

That is a very good signing who could end u starting at RT if they do not want to pay La'el big money at RT OR they decide to part with Tyron due to lingering medical concerns.
His age is perfectly situated to be a guy that still improves.

 

[xwalker]

Cowboys fans are like children with no concept of budgets.

 

[waldoputty]

The Cowboys thought they were smarter than everyone else when they were flipping the bills due off to next year.
I railed against it then to the dismay of many and I'll rail against it now.
There are many, many reasons why it is bad business.

As to half the time, simply .. no.
No team can do this half the time.
They can do this for a few years in a row where reality is they only truly benefited once. Then the fall comes.
If you spend 150M on a 100M cap and push 50-M forward divided by 5, it will all eventually cost you that 50M. You start year 2 -10M. Flip 50M again and you free up 40M but you will be -20M in year 3.
When a player gets injured(Dez/Sean Lee), goes nuts(Ratliff), or simply under-performs long term you are stuck because it is more expensive to cut them then keep them because you aren't paying base wages anymore, you are counting on paying it all as bonus/restructure money.

The only time this really makes sense is in the last couple years of a truly special QB's career.
And even then you are just planning on tanking as he leaves if you do basically which allows you to clean up the cap.

many ways to play the game.

you can have the save now and spend later
1. tank 2 years in a row.
2. cut salary while gaming the 89% minimum and roll $50 million per year or so into the cap.
3. get great draft picks at the same time
4. ramp up spending after the 2 years of tanking
5. have a glorious run of 3-4 years
6. rinse and repeat

or spend now and suffer later
flip the order of the previous

 

[Beast_from_East]

As we start FA and everyone freaks out over every player we don't sign league-wide thought I'd offer some basic rules to keep us all sane.

1. Never pay a guy big money if you questioned his motor when he made small potatoes. If a guy won't work when he is hungry he darn sure won't work when he is well paid. BUT... a former high end draft pick who seems inconsistent is worth a shot for cheap if the coach is a motivator (see Rod and Richard).
2. It is OK to pay big money to ascending guys as long as you aren't doing it off potential. Taking a guy who played 110 snaps and projecting that out to 220 and paying him big money is straight up black/red on the roulette wheel and NFL teams do not get the house cut.
3. Monster 3rd contracts are generally only OK for QBs or OL. Other positions those guys better be physical freaks who take care of their bodies year-round.
4. In the words of Biggie Smalls "Don't get high off your own supply". In another words do NOT overpay guys on your own team. Assess their market value and try to get a quality deal done. 500K saved per top 30 roster player is a couple extra starters. Early extensions assist you here mightily. THIS is the unsung reason why the Pats keep winning Super Bowls.
5. If you sign someone to a deal that pays them in the top 5 of their position you will eventually be cutting that same said someone 90% of the time. Just realize odds are bad on monster deals and configure them so you aren't left holding a bag of dead money. See below.
6. Pay as you go. Planned restructures which Stephen invented were THE primary reason Tony Romo doesn't have a ring. All that said as QB he was also the main beneficiary of said system in actual dollars paid and thus we can't feel for sorry for him. Guessing TR would have taken 80% of his career earnings to have won a title and ensured himself a HOF slot.
7. Betting it all on black. Pushing all your chips in is a fool's gambit 95% of the time. This a game of inches and while you want every advantage, you have to realize taking one shot at a title is a low probability option. The better you are the more you can gamble but be ready for the back end tailspin if you do. Pushing cap plus trading off draft picks can be a 5 year handicap. Old + expensive is a deadly bad combo.
8. The salary cap is a very real construct. It can be and is manipulated mightily but it also forces real decisions. And once you start playing it as a credit card system you are locked into those moves going forward. --See the Eagles. Last year lost a slot CB who was arguably the best in football then this year let 3 starters walk in FA including the only SB winning QB in their team's history.
9. Do NOT overpay system guys. Some guys may be a top 10 in a very specific system and really rank more like 30th overall. See Byron Jones. Great fit in the system as was noted before he ever played a down in it but you don't pay 14-15M a year to a guy you can replace with round 3-4 draft picks --long physical corners who don't play the ball but can stick with the man. See SEA as reference point. Plug and play at CB and system rolled on.
10. UNLESS the guy is the key to that system. In a 3-4 DWare was worth insane money. He made the whole thing go. Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much.

Applied to specific guys:
1. Dak. This one will draw the most hate but always pay young QBs who've had success. The areas Dak needs to improve in most do improve with time: footwork, reads, quicker releases, ball protection. The NFL is littered with older QBs for a reason. All that said you should apply rule 4 here and use all available means to get a lower AAV deal as every penny saved is huge and having your QB set the example of taking less leads to Pats-like roster ramifications down the line.
2. Zeke: RB is tough but Zeke is THE KEY To the current system. Unless you plan to overhaul the system, you pay the man.
3. AB vs Amari. This is one of those things that let's you know which fans you need to block or ignore.
AB is 30 and in 3 years is likely cut hitting your cap in dead money. Those 3rd and 5th round picks are playing at high levels and cheap or at the very worst costing you zero. 24 is ideal. 30 is bad news at WR. IF someone suggests Amari was a bad deal just ignore them.
4. Earl Thomas. One of toughest calls. System defining player but injured, older and wants to be be highly paid. Dallas has done the right thing here IMHO. Continue to suggest they love him and want him but can't afford to pay him top end money. Woo him with everything but dollars.
5. Sean Lee: Lee has been making a lot of money and he has missed a lot of time with injury. He was an obvious contract adjustment. BUT anyone complaining about this deal is being silly. 3.5 in base salary for your 3rd LB is not bad at all. Add in he helps the other 2 guys in the film room immensely and it is well worth it. Lee has been helping to develop 4th round picks like Anthony Hitchens his entire career and will eventually coach.

You totally contradicted yourself on Earl Thomas.

You say on one hand that you woo him with everything but money and Dallas did the right thing with not over paying, but at the same time you say "Earl Thomas is worth far more as a single high safety because he can allow you to use lesser players at all other secondary spots as he erases so much."

So if he allows you to go with lessor players since he erases so much, why was it such a good move for Dallas to low ball him and woo him with everything but money as you say?