Belichick's decision to try a 56-yard field goal in the rain

[Reverend Conehead]

I thought that was a bad decision. A 56-yard field goal is already anything but a chip shot. That's a tough field goal to make even under ideal conditions. But in pouring down rain, it's much harder. I thought he should not try a field goal in those conditions unless his team was a lot closer. I would say don't try any field goal longer than about 42 to 45 yards. If you can't get a close enough field goal try, then you have to just either Hail Mary it or try one of those multiple lateral plays. The odds aren't great, of course. It looked to me like they may have been able to get another 12 to 15 yards before trying that field goal.

Asking a kicker to make a 56-hard field goal in the pouring rain is asking A LOT.

 

[Pape]

I thought that was a bad decision. A 56-yard field goal is already anything but a chip shot. That's a tough field goal to make even under ideal conditions. But in pouring down rain, it's much harder. I thought he should not try a field goal in those conditions unless his team was a lot closer. I would say don't try any field goal longer than about 42 to 45 yards. If you can't get a close enough field goal try, then you have to just either Hail Mary it or try one of those multiple lateral plays. The odds aren't great, of course. It looked to me like they may have been able to get another 12 to 15 yards before trying that field goal.

Asking a kicker to make a 56-hard field goal in the pouring rain is asking A LOT.

we were 2/9 on conversions that day... had zero running game... James White, our third down back, on the IR... the play right before that was 3rd and 3... no conversion...

think what you will, it was the correct decision imo.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It was a poor decision. Certainly the analytics-based models agreed they should have gone for it, and those models didn't know it was raining.

Even if they make the 56-yarder, they leave a minute for TB to come back.

I mean, at that point, you're probably going to lose anyway no matter what you do, but I was pretty shocked they made the call they did.

 

[Flamma]

It was a poor decision. Certainly the analytics-based models agreed they should have gone for it, and those models didn't know it was raining.

Even if they make the 56-yarder, they leave a minute for TB to come back.

I mean, at that point, you're probably going to lose anyway no matter what you do, but I was pretty shocked they made the call they did.

Analytics didn't know it was raining, right. It also didn't know how much trouble Brady was having all game moving the ball downfield. It also doesn't take into account how good the kicker has been. It's just a simple situational guide. The coach has to determine what to do based on the flow of the game.

I thought he would go for it. Get the first down and run down the clock for a FG. My guess is that he wanted to get the FG there because he thought he could shut Brady down in the final minute. And I think had they made the FG it would have worked. Had the game score been 40-38 then you go for it. You can't leave a minute on the clock. But in a low scoring game where Brady is having a rough time? I think that's why he did it.

 

[RonWashington]

If he can hang on a few years get Jones some weapons I could see him building another deep playoff threat. Right now they look like a 7 win team drafting probably top 12. As far as the FG well those goofy lateral plays never work about the only possibility after FG is a Hail Mary and hope to get lucky .

 

[atlantacowboy]

I thought that was a bad decision. A 56-yard field goal is already anything but a chip shot. That's a tough field goal to make even under ideal conditions. But in pouring down rain, it's much harder. I thought he should not try a field goal in those conditions unless his team was a lot closer. I would say don't try any field goal longer than about 42 to 45 yards. If you can't get a close enough field goal try, then you have to just either Hail Mary it or try one of those multiple lateral plays. The odds aren't great, of course. It looked to me like they may have been able to get another 12 to 15 yards before trying that field goal.

Asking a kicker to make a 56-hard field goal in the pouring rain is asking A LOT.

When faced with the 3 low probability options, Bill chose the best of the 3. Hail Mary's to win games are generational plays. You rarely see it. We see 56 yard FGs every week in the NFL.

 

[kskboys]

It was the only decision.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

It's not a either/or decision. Don't know if Belichick goes by charts, or gut feeling, or coaches/players recommendations. But over the first 32 games of this season, there were 88 fourth-down attempts, with 39 successfully converted (44.3 percent). So less than half were successful, and you know some of those attempts were for 1 or 2 yards, this game it was 4th and 3, that makes a difference.

Also over the first 32 games, there were 43 field goal attempts 50 or more yards, and teams made 26 of them.

That's 60%.

So statistically, the chances of making the field goal was greater than the chance of making the first down. Of course it was raining, but it's not like it was missed by a bunch, he hit the upright, a few inches over and it's good.

And if he'd made it, and the Pats won, would there be any criticism of the decision? No, it'd be lauded as making the "safe" choice.

A lot factors into whether or not you try the fg or go for the first, it's not cut and dried...

 

[Ghost12]

It was a poor decision. Certainly the analytics-based models agreed they should have gone for it, and those models didn't know it was raining.

The analytics based model used by ESPN - which does take weather into account - gave a bigger win percentage to attempting the FG than to going for it. Please note the difference is minimal and in each case still under 50%, but you are mistaken to suggest the mathematical thing to do was go for it.

 

[sean10mm]

Hail Mary's to win games are generational plays. You rarely see it. We see 56 yard FGs every week in the NFL.

It wasn't a hail mary situation, they needed 3 yards. Run off more time so a comeback is not possible, and then try an eaiser field goal

Folk is not a long range kicker in this stage of his career, was coming off an injury, and was trying to make a career long kick in a downpour.

Making the field goal still left Brady a minute and 2 time outs to get into field goal range and win it anyway. Who is betting against Brady at that point?

It was a coaching choke. What a spherical kicker in a vacuum would do based on historical data is irrelevant.

 

[atlantacowboy]

It wasn't a hail mary situation, they needed 3 yards. Run off more time so a comeback is not possible, and then try an eaiser field goal

Folk is not a long range kicker in this stage of his career, was coming off an injury, and was trying to make a career long kick in a downpour.

Making the field goal still left Brady a minute and 2 time outs to get into field goal range and win it anyway. Who is betting against Brady at that point?

It was a coaching choke. What a spherical kicker in a vacuum would do based on historical data is irrelevant.

I guess he needs an 8th super bowl ring to get any respect. lol