Bledsoe: Sacks and Options

[ravidubey]

Yes, another Bledsoe analysis thread. But what I show are for each year the % Bledsoe is sacked, overall sacks, and the receivers who catch the most balls.

In particular I bolded the TE, as I believe the TE is the one guy whose size and routes can best help a QB avoid sacks. I realize the OL is a major factor not considered below, but I think skill positions factor prominently in their own right.

Year/% Sacked Sacks YPA Receivers by receptions (TE in bold )

1993|3.7% 16| 5.8 YPA Coates(53), Brisby(45), Timpson(42), Turner(39)
1994|3.1% 22| 6.6 YPA Coates(96), Timpson(74), Thompson (65), Brisby(58)
1995|3.6% 23| 5.5 YPA Coates(84), Brisby(66), Meggett(52), Moore(43)
1996|4.8% 30| 6.6 YPA Glenn(90), Coates(62), Jefferson(50), Cumar(46)
1997|5.7% 30| 7.1 YPA Coates(66), Jefferson(54), Brown(41), Cumar(41)
1998|7.5% 36| 7.6 YPA Coates(67)*, Glenn(50)*, R. Edwards (35), Jefferson(34)
1999|17.7% 55| 7.4 YPA Glenn(69)*, Jefferson(40), Brown(36), Coates(32)*
2000|8.4% 45| 6.2 YPA Brown(83), Glenn(79), Faulk(51), Redmond(20), ...Bjornson (8)
2001|7.6% 5| 6.1 YPA -- -- -- --
2002|8.8% 54| 6.1 YPA Moulds(100), Price(94), Henry(43), Centers(43), Reed(32), Reimersma(32)
2003|10.4% 49| 6.1 YPA Moulds(64), Reed(58), Shaw(56), Campbell(34)
2004|8.2% 37| 6.5 YPA Moulds(88), Evans(48), McGahee(22), Campbell(17)

*Banged Up

As you can see, each year is different as targets and OL's vary, and health and age factor. Also not factoring the OL (I wish there was an easy way to include it) I see the following things possibly affecting sacks:

1. The strength of the TE.
2. The strength of the running game. This keeps the defens of balance.
3. The desire to look deep. The better the deep targets, the less likely Bledsoe is willing to look short to get rid of the ball. In 1996 Bledsoe was rewarded deep often, but his sacked %age climbed slightly. In the next three years he kept looking deep but his main deep guy, Glenn, wasn't healthy.
4. Age. There is no denying as Bledsoe gets older the percentage trends upwards. There are other factors, but age can't be discounted.

Another factor is losing a combination that worked well the year before, such as from 98 to 99 when Coates becomes a shell of his former self and Edwards is lost to injury or from 02 to 03 when both Price and Reimersma leave.

I especially think Bledsoe would have had an amazingly good year in 2002 if he had a better TE.

This year, the OL looks to be as solid as Bledsoe has ever had as does the running game. The intermediate game looks to be as good as Bledsoe has ever had with Coates. Because of the excellent intermediate options, I see Bledsoe's accuracy climbing and sacks dropping dramatically. I think he will be able to keep defenses guessing and out of deep zones so he can toss the occasional deep shot to TG. I hope he looks intermediate as much as he looks further downfield.

If he does, I think he will be more than good enough to lead Dallas into the playoffs this season-- Glenn and Keyshawn must stay healthy, though but Witten is the biggest key of all.

 

[parchy]

Bledsoe was sacked seven times in one game against the Raiders last year... that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

 

[ravidubey]

Bledsoe was sacked seven times in one game against the Raiders last year... that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

Actually, it doesn't tell me much. Did you watch the game and notice why the sacks happened? Otherwise I can only look deeper into the stats for that game or the game summary itself.

 

[dargonking999]

Bledsoe was sacked seven times in one game against the Raiders last year... that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

Really it doenst tell me anytihng, i dint see the game nor do i know who was on there OL or the raiders DL, how about making a bodl statment and putting soem meaning in it.

 

[blindzebra]

Yes, another Bledsoe analysis thread. But what I show are for each year the % Bledsoe is sacked, overall sacks, and the receivers who catch the most balls.

In particular I bolded the TE, as I believe the TE is the one guy whose size and routes can best help a QB avoid sacks. I realize the OL is a major factor not considered below, but I think skill positions factor prominently in their own right.

Year/% Sacked Sacks YPA Receivers by receptions (TE in bold )

1993|3.7% 16| 5.8 YPA Coates(53), Brisby(45), Timpson(42), Turner(39)
1994|3.1% 22| 6.6 YPA Coates(96), Timpson(74), Thompson (65), Brisby(58)
1995|3.6% 23| 5.5 YPA Coates(84), Brisby(66), Meggett(52), Moore(43)
1996|4.8% 30| 6.6 YPA Glenn(90), Coates(62), Jefferson(50), Cumar(46)
1997|5.7% 30| 7.1 YPA Coates(66), Jefferson(54), Brown(41), Cumar(41)
1998|7.5% 36| 7.6 YPA Coates(67)*, Glenn(50)*, R. Edwards (35), Jefferson(34)
1999|17.7% 55| 7.4 YPA Glenn(69)*, Jefferson(40), Brown(36), Coates(32)*
2000|8.4% 45| 6.2 YPA Brown(83), Glenn(79), Faulk(51), Redmond(20), ...Bjornson (8)
2001|7.6% 5| 6.1 YPA -- -- -- --
2002|8.8% 54| 6.1 YPA Moulds(100), Price(94), Henry(43), Centers(43), Reed(32), Reimersma(32)
2003|10.4% 49| 6.1 YPA Moulds(64), Reed(58), Shaw(56), Campbell(34)
2004|8.2% 37| 6.5 YPA Moulds(88), Evans(48), McGahee(22), Campbell(17)

*Banged Up

As you can see, each year is different as targets and OL's vary, and health and age factor. Also not factoring the OL (I wish there was an easy way to include it) I see the following things possibly affecting sacks:

1. The strength of the TE.
2. The strength of the running game. This keeps the defens of balance.
3. The desire to look deep. The better the deep targets, the less likely Bledsoe is willing to look short to get rid of the ball. In 1996 Bledsoe was rewarded deep often, but his sacked %age climbed slightly. In the next three years he kept looking deep but his main deep guy, Glenn, wasn't healthy.
4. Age. There is no denying as Bledsoe gets older the percentage trends upwards. There are other factors, but age can't be discounted.

Another factor is losing a combination that worked well the year before, such as from 98 to 99 when Coates becomes a shell of his former self and Edwards is lost to injury or from 02 to 03 when both Price and Reimersma leave.

I especially think Bledsoe would have had an amazingly good year in 2002 if he had a better TE.

This year, the OL looks to be as solid as Bledsoe has ever had as does the running game. The intermediate game looks to be as good as Bledsoe has ever had with Coates. Because of the excellent intermediate options, I see Bledsoe's accuracy climbing and sacks dropping dramatically. I think he will be able to keep defenses guessing and out of deep zones so he can toss the occasional deep shot to TG. I hope he looks intermediate as much as he looks further downfield.

If he does, I think he will be more than good enough to lead Dallas into the playoffs this season-- Glenn and Keyshawn must stay healthy, though but Witten is the biggest key of all.

I see sack % that has gone up and remains high and YPA that is in the 6 yard range consistently. Making a Coates/Witten connection is easy, but that was 6 years ago.

Remember some were saying Vinny had his best year under Parcells going into last season too.

 

[Fletch]

Actually, it doesn't tell me much. Did you watch the game and notice why the sacks happened? Otherwise I can only look deeper into the stats for that game or the game summary itself.

I bet that Buffalo offensive line was just spectacular that game.

 

[parchy]

Actually, it doesn't tell me much. Did you watch the game and notice why the sacks happened? Otherwise I can only look deeper into the stats for that game or the game summary itself.

Yeah... he held onto the ball way to long in those situations... his line could have given him more time but he also could have gotten rid of it in the 4-5 seconds he had... never was there any great pass rusher flying through the line and giving him no time to throw... he got flustered, sat down and took sacks... he also fumbled the ball once because he refused to just go down after he was wrapped up and he threw a ball away apparently because he had a brain fart... I'm as big of a football stats guy as you'll find, but you won't find fleshed out explanations to these things in statistics

 

[Alexander]

Actually, it doesn't tell me much. Did you watch the game and notice why the sacks happened? Otherwise I can only look deeper into the stats for that game or the game summary itself.

I watched the game.

The sacks came from everywhere, specifically on the blitz. Of the seven sacks, only 1/2 sack came from a lineman (Sapp). The rest came off of blitzing linebackers and more alarmingly, 1 1/2 came from the cornerback position.

When a team blitzes it leaves itself open to the big pass play if the QB is able to do enough to beat it and if the blitz is picked up.

The book on Bledsoe is blitz him. We did that in 2003 and had great success.

Bledsoe cannot buy time. He also has a notorious slow internal clock.

We will have to hope that Witten helps him.

There is no doubt that Buffalo had no TE to help. But simply having that option is not going to alleviate the concerns. Double the TE, force our WRs to work to get open? Sack city.

But the key is keep him from having to throw the ball and limit the obvious passing downs.

 

[ravidubey]

Remember some were saying Vinny had his best year under Parcells going into last season too.

Nice point! I'm just tryin to look at the targets themselves and draw some conclusions based upon the few games I have seen and the stats. I think you can definitely see how the quality of intermediate targets affects his sacks. I think ideally things would be like 1996 (of course) when he had Glenn deep, Coates intermediate, and Cumar short with Jefferson as a capable #2.

The jump from 4.8% in 1996 to 8.4% in 2002 can be explained by a combination of age, offensive line, offensive play-calling, and IMO the lack of a strong TE. Supposing the 02 Bills line was similar to the 96 Patriots line and that play-calling was similar-- that leaves age and the TE accounting for the increase in sacks. I'm betting the TE accounts for a healthy chunk!

 

[parchy]

I mean there comes a time when you have to stop blaming the line... the Buffalo line wasn't terrific but these guys were professionals... Jonas Jennings, Mike Williams, Chris Villarrial... 3-4 sacks in a game is a good defense getting the best of your line... when you get to 7 sacks, against the Raiders no less (not a bad D, but not worthy of 7 sacks), something is wrong with your QB. It's probably all a moot point because his line here is better, but in Buffalo, Bledsoe had problems that stemmed from him.

 

[ravidubey]

I watched the game.

The sacks came from everywhere, specifically on the blitz. Of the seven sacks, only 1/2 sack came from a lineman (Sapp). The rest came off of blitzing linebackers and more alarmingly, 1 1/2 came from the cornerback position.

When a team blitzes it leaves itself open to the big pass play if the QB is able to do enough to beat it and if the blitz is picked up.

The book on Bledsoe is blitz him. We did that in 2003 and had great success.

Bledsoe cannot buy time. He also has a notorious slow internal clock.

We will have to hope that Witten helps him.

There is no doubt that Buffalo had no TE to help. But simply having that option is not going to alleviate the concerns. Double the TE, force our WRs to work to get open? Sack city.

But the key is keep him from having to throw the ball and limit the obvious passing downs.

I agree with everything you've posted. Dallas must build confidence on offense, and IMO I think that will have to start with Julius, Witten, the vets on the OL, and Key.

 

[Alexander]

I agree with everything you've posted. Dallas must build confidence on offense, and IMO I think that will have to start with Julius, Witten, the vets on the OL, and Key.

Think about it this way, if our running game does not come through in spades, our goose is cooked.

Buffalo started 0-4 under Bledsoe last year.

They only started winning once they realized that he was a liability not an asset.

My fear is that Coach Parcells thinks the Bledsoe he has is the same as the one he had.

And given his history with Testeverde, he probably does.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

You folks keep pointing to the lack of a TE in the Buffalo system as the reason for his poor years there. I can tell you Reimersma and Campbell weren't horrible. The reason you're not seeing a lot of completions to the TE's is quite frankly because Bledsoe fell "in love" with medium and long range throws to the wide receivers. NOT because the TE's for Buffalo sucked that bad. Quit making excuses for the guy.

And "No" having a better TE for Bledsoe in '02 wouldn't have done anything except take some nice long TD passes from Price & Moulds.

 

[blindzebra]

Nice point! I'm just tryin to look at the targets themselves and draw some conclusions based upon the few games I have seen and the stats. I think you can definitely see how the quality of intermediate targets affects his sacks. I think ideally things would be like 1996 (of course) when he had Glenn deep, Coates intermediate, and Cumar short with Jefferson as a capable #2.

The jump from 4.8% in 1996 to 8.4% in 2002 can be explained by a combination of age, offensive line, offensive play-calling, and IMO the lack of a strong TE. Supposing the 02 Bills line was similar to the 96 Patriots line and that play-calling was similar-- that leaves age and the TE accounting for the increase in sacks. I'm betting the TE accounts for a healthy chunk!

Or just as likely a QB that loves to throw deep that had two deep threats in Moulds and Price and held it too long to get the deep routes open. Because Reimersma was a pretty good TE.

The question is not can Witten help, but will Bledsoe accept a dink and dunk, run first, ball control offense and not resort to the forced throw?

 

[AsthmaField]

Bledsoe was sacked seven times in one game against the Raiders last year... that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

It wasn't Bledoe's fault that he was sacked seven times. The reason he was sacked that much was because Oakland played a 3-4 defense last year and that scheme can't be stopped. It's relentless and Bledsoe never stood a chance against it.

 

[blindzebra]

It wasn't Bledoe's fault that he was sacked seven times. The reason he was sacked that much was because Oakland played a 3-4 defense last year and that scheme can't be stopped. It's relentless and Bledsoe never stood a chance against it.

God, I hope that is sarcasm, since Oakland had 18 sacks the rest of the season.

 

[AsthmaField]

God, I hope that is sarcasm, since Oakland had 18 sacks the rest of the season.

Don't worry for my sanity.

 

[burmafrd]

Buffalo's O line last year was DECENT run blocking but STANK pass blocking. With no TE worth the name, and the running game not showing up till McGahee was starting, does not suprise me. I think that Bledsoe got discouraged last year- but feels like a new man back with BP, a MUCH better O line, and a Pro Bowl TE. One other thing that could really help: if JJ and the other backs show up well catching dump offs and hurting the D that way. Then Bledsoe has another safety valve and the D has more problems. Give Bledsoe enough options and he will do well. A QB is the most dependent player on the team- if all 10 of the other guys don't do well he usually doesn't either.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Buffalo's O line last year was DECENT run blocking but STANK pass blocking. With no TE worth the name, and the running game not showing up till McGahee was starting, does not suprise me. I think that Bledsoe got discouraged last year- but feels like a new man back with BP, a MUCH better O line, and a Pro Bowl TE. One other thing that could really help: if JJ and the other backs show up well catching dump offs and hurting the D that way. Then Bledsoe has another safety valve and the D has more problems. Give Bledsoe enough options and he will do well. A QB is the most dependent player on the team- if all 10 of the other guys don't do well he usually doesn't either.

Nice burmafed...

You laid out a nice scenario that gives Bledsoe all the credit if he succeeds and absconds him from blame if he fails. Actually that fits right in with the Bledsoe MO.

 

[ravidubey]

Or just as likely a QB that loves to throw deep that had two deep threats in Moulds and Price and held it too long to get the deep routes open. Because Reimersma was a pretty good TE.

The question is not can Witten help, but will Bledsoe accept a dink and dunk, run first, ball control offense and not resort to the forced throw?

Is that why Reimersma really lit things up in 2003? Bledsoe had the same deal in 1996 with Glenn and Jefferson except he also had the TE in Coates. The change from 4.8% sacks to 8.4% is a big one, and I think it is explained partly by age and mostly by not having a strong TE.

Bledsoe's biggest on the field personality flaw is that he wants to make the biggest possible play each and every pass play. He's not a dumpoff kind of QB, though he will do so if he has options. If he has early success deep, he will keep firing deep until better options present themselves.

Bledsoe was not a liability in Buffalo, the offense was simply not equipped to be pass-first. With McGahee running first, Buffalo begain tearing up the league. You just don't win that many games if your QB is a liability.