BPA vs Need

[DFWJC]

I don't like any WR or RB well enough to take at 18 compared to what will be there otherwise...this year. So I'm off the hook

Seriously though, this stuff is done in tiers and not a straight up list that force feeds players at exact numbered slots.

repaired

 

[xwalker]

Seriously though, this stuff is done in tiers and not a straight up list that force feeds players at exact numbered slots.

Agree. They have players in tiers. They consider need when ranking within the tier. Good teams will not draft a tier 2 player over a tier 1 player under any circumstance except QB.

 

[JD_KaPow]

The only GM I have heard of that stuck to the BPA above all else was Matt Millen; why he kept drafting WRs. Of course that worked so well for detroit...

Well, there's a little bit more to it, like actually knowing what you're doing. He didn't draft BPA WRs and end up with a glut of good WRs and weakness everywhere else. He drafted BPA WRs and still needed WRs because they kept busting.

 

[DFWJC]

Agree. They have players in tiers. They consider need when ranking within the tier. Good teams will not draft a tier 2 player over a tier 1 player under any circumstance except QB.

That's right, and depending on the team, they could have fairly wide tiers in some rounds. I'm sure some spilt it up more than others--and I know within "asset groups" teams will will have sub-tiers. So if you have 3 DEs in the same tier, they will, in fact be ranked 1,2,3 within that group. so DE_Tier2.1, DE_Tier2.2... for example.

These teams still use the white boards, but of course, they have programs written for this stuff that drives it (with their scouting inputs and preferences).

 

[JD_KaPow]

How willing would you truly believe in the BPA strategy? Lets say you believe there is a pro-bowl player at WR, do you take him? Or do you take a lesser DE, OL, or DT because it fills a need?

So what do you do? Take a future pro-bowler or take a chance at a player that you hope reaches that level in an area of need.

BPA meets need in the trade market. If there's a clear BPA on your board but he really doesn't fit a need, it's likely that some other team will want him and you can make a favorable trade. If you can't, then you have to take the guy - he's separated himself on your board for a reason. Usually, I'm guessing, the situation is more that there are two or three guys in a tier, in which case, sure, take the one that best fits your perceived needs.

 

[DFWJC]

BPA meets need in the trade market. If there's a clear BPA on your board but he really doesn't fit a need, it's likely that some other team will want him and you can make a favorable trade. If you can't, then you have to take the guy - he's separated himself on your board for a reason. Usually, I'm guessing, the situation is more that there are two or three guys in a tier, in which case, sure, take the one that best fits your perceived needs.

This.

Teams don't simply numercially rank players without grouping them.
There could be a huge gap between player 14 and 15 compared to almost no difference between player 13-14. So the tier break is after 14 and a BOA selection of a trade would apply. That is if you are Balitmore, New England, or Pittsburgh...maybe not Dallas.

Once they have their groups, the process is pretty straight forward. If by your rankings the choice is between an elite player in a position of less immediate need vs a good player in a position of need. You really should take that elite player every time. If not, you are doomed to have team full of JAGS due to chasing your tail for immediate gratification to solve long term goals.