Breaking Down Every Single Dak Interception

[T-RO]

If you want Dak to die tomorrow, or you think he's a top five QB...I don't care. Don't want to hear it.

In this thread I'm not going to try to convince you of anything. I want merely to learn and then convey information...detailed information. We've all heard each other's Dak's arguments. It's tedious and old and boring as hell to repeat them again here.

I'll do so this in a series of posts. Heck I might even post a screen grab of each. I just want to study what happened.

Who was the target? What down? What quarter or time situation? How far down the field? That's the type of thing this thread is about. If you find this kind of thing interesting, perhaps potentially enlightening...great! If you don't...and don't wish to read...that's great too.

Ready?

 

[T-RO]

Dak 2022 interceptions

What down?
First Down...four
Second Down...four
Third Down...seven

What quarter?
First...2
Second...10
Third...1
Fourth...1
OT...1

 

[T-RO]

Seven of Dak's 15 interceptions occurred in the following situation:
Near the end of the first half

(3:38 remaining or less in half)

 

[T-RO]

Who was Dak targeting (and what is the interception rate when Dak threw to that target)

Dalton Schultz, 5
Noah Brown, 4
Ceedee Lamb, 3
Michael Gallup, 2
Peyton Hendershot, 1

Interception rate when targeting:
Dalton Schultz, 5.6%
Noah Brown, 5.4%
Ceedee Lamb, 1.9%
Michael Gallup, 2.7%
Peyton Hendershot, 6.2%
All others, 0%

 

[RoboQB]

Hmmm.
There seems to be one common denomination that stands out in
this breakdown. All interceptions seem to be thrown by the same guy.

Therefore, the fault lies mostly with the QB... lol, just pulling your chain.
Last season is in the rear view mirror. It's time to look through the windshield
at the upcoming season. If the team stays healthy, they have a legit shot
at losing to KC in the Super Bowl.

 

[T-RO]

Depth of passes intercepted

Short passes..............9
Intermediate passes...2
Deep passes..............4

 

[TheCritic]

If you find this kind of thing interesting, perhaps potentially enlightening...great! If you don't...and don't wish to read...that's great too.

Ready?

I'm more interested in why you find this interesting. Hasn't Dak's 2022 interceptions been covered a thousand times in a thousand different ways already? Not trying to put you down, just want to know what unique and original ideas you are going to take that will lead somewhere other than the expected dead end.

Again, not saying this to be mean, but please know that you are up against dozens and dozens of CZ members who see the words "Dak Interceptions" and it instantly conjures up images of dead horses and roadkill.

I'm really hoping you can overcome those huge stacks of rolling eyes and we can all learn something new and unique. Best of luck!

 

[T-RO]

I'm more interested in why you find this interesting. Hasn't Dak's 2022 interceptions been covered a thousand times in a thousand different ways already? Not trying to put you down, just want to know what unique and original ideas you are going to take that will lead somewhere other than the expected dead end.

Again, not saying this to be mean, but please know that you are up against dozens and dozens of CZ members who see the words "Dak Interceptions" and it instantly conjures up images of dead horses and roadkill.

I'm really hoping you can overcome those huge stacks of rolling eyes and we can all learn something new and unique. Best of luck!

This discovery already made this investigation worth it...for me. I can't speak for others:

Seven of Dak's 15 interceptions occurred in the following situation:
Near the end of the first half

(3:38 remaining or less in half)​

Tells me hella lot.

 

[TheCritic]

This discovery already made this investigation worth it...for me. I can't speak for others:

Seven of Dak's 15 interceptions occurred in the following situation:​

Near the end of the first half​

​

(3:38 remaining or less in half)​

Tells me hella lot.

What exactly does that tell you? Please explain.

 

[T-RO]

What exactly does that tell you? Please explain.

Dak only had two interceptions in the second half the entire season. Only two in the first quarter.

But he had 10(!) in the second quarter and a massive cluster (7!) right at the end of the first half. This suggests he had a tendency to get over-aggressive to post a score going in to the locker room at the half.

 

[T-RO]

Depth of passes intercepted

Short passes..............9
Intermediate passes...2
Deep passes..............4

And this suggests that the notion of Dak as a bus driver is misguided. Dak didn't throw a lot of pics going down field.

I'm keen to find out what's up with the short pass interceptions. Seems odd.

 

[TheCritic]

Dak only had two interceptions in the second half the entire season. Only two in the first quarter.

But he had 10(!) in the second quarter and a massive cluster (7!) right at the end of the first half. This suggests he had a tendency to get over-aggressive to post a score going in to the locker room at the half.

So far it looks to me that you aren't really uncovering anything new. But......
It's not my place to rob you of your journey. You should go ahead and assume that you are going to uncover data that no one else has thought of. And since the Joneses are known to spy on the CZ, they will make sure that whatever you uncover will get back to Big Mike and make sure he analyzes your new data and incorporates it into his play calling. You can also assume that I'm being sarcastic, but it doesn't matter. You have to believe in yourself and that you can make a difference. So again best of luck!

 

[Techsass]

And this suggests that the notion of Dak as a bus driver is misguided. Dak didn't throw a lot of pics going down field.

I'm keen to find out what's up with the short pass interceptions. Seems odd.

What are you calling "short" passes. Heck I'd like to know what constituted the intermediate & deep passes while you're at it, if you don't mind.

Curious how this will effect us once we start using the Texas Coast offense.

 

[Captain-Crash]

how many interceptions did the opposing team's defense drop? I think the issue was, fat Mike told dak to take more chances and you've seen the results. I think this year will be similar unless he throws more screens. I believe fat mike didn't like dak being conservative and told him he could live with taking chances and the results.

Get ready for fat Mike to keep asking dak to take chances..

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

I'm keen to find out what's up with the short pass interceptions. Seems odd.

Short passes require accuracy because you are likely throwing to a player in traffic. Dak isn’t that guy. Throws are always behind or low, forcing the receiver to adjust all the while expecting to get laid out.

 

[T-RO]

how many interceptions did the opposing team's defense drop?

Good question. Remind me if I don't revisit that later on. It's not in my database but PFF has a stat called "turnover worthy plays".

 

[Techsass]

So far it looks to me that you aren't really uncovering anything new. But......
It's not my place to rob you of your journey. You should go ahead and assume that you are going to uncover data that no one else has thought of. And since the Joneses are known to spy on the CZ, they will make sure that whatever you uncover will get back to Big Mike and make sure he analyzes your new data and incorporates it into his play calling. You can also assume that I'm being sarcastic, but it doesn't matter. You have to believe in yourself and that you can make a difference. So again best of luck!

You seem bored by this, but I always find these kind of stat threads interesting.

Don't really know what the last 3 minutes of the 1st half actually signifies, but the fact that 1/2 of Dak's INT'S happened then is somewhat interesting to me.

 

[T-RO]

What are you calling "short" passes. Heck I'd like to know what constituted the intermediate & deep passes while you're at it, if you don't mind.

Curious how this will effect us once we start using the Texas Coast offense.

My database ingests play descriptions from a public system, so these are not my own categories

From what I can guess...
-Short passes are approx. anything less than 12 yards or so.
-Intermediate...anything between 12 and 25.
-Deep passes = >25

 

[noshame]

Short passes require accuracy because you are likely throwing to a player in traffic. Dak isn’t that guy. Throws are always behind or low, forcing the receiver to adjust all the while expecting to get laid out.

AKA under pressure

 

[T-RO]

So far it looks to me that you aren't really uncovering anything new.

Really.

Then do share, hot shot, where you previously learned that Dak was throwing almost no interceptions in the second half, but was a Give-Away machine at the end of the first half.

So I learned that, plus am in the process of looking at short pass interception issues. Oh...and we're also all getting to learn about your interesting issues.