Breaking down misperceptions about draft prospects

[Gaede]

i like that list, specifically Troy Smith, Weddle, and Sidney Rice

 

[InmanRoshi]

I agree that you have to be wary of all Spurrier WR's, because they do pad their stats with WR screens and little crossing patterns which are basically Spurrier's versions of running plays, but Rice doesn't fit that Taylor Jacobs/Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney mold. In fact, I would say that Rice's greatest weakness is he's not a big YAC guy. Rice gets his yards through his routes. When South Carolina threw the little WR bubble screens, it was mostly to McKinley who is a former option QB, which certainly helped pad Mitchell's completion percentage because any throw past 20 yards he was completely useless. I can't tell you how many times Sydney Rice got behind the defense and had to come back to out jump everyone for the ball because it was 15 yards underthrown. At least Reggie Ball could throw a decent deep ball for CJ.

 

[InmanRoshi]

Three things I think seperate Rice from a lot of guys who have simular 40 times. One, Rice has very long arms. Put these together with exceptional hands (which he has) and you get a guy who can catch the ball even when somebody is on you tightly. Secondly, he has very good short area quickness. Excellent latteral quicks which help him into and out of his breaks. Lastly, he has exceptional ability to find the ball and adjust without losing speed. Don't underestimate this ability. Lots of guys can run fast but if they can't find the ball and adjust to it, then all the speed advantage they have with natural ability gets scrubbed off. The DB can make a play because the WR can't adjust well. Rice can adjust without losing a great deal of speed while make adjustments. These are the things he uses to create seperation and all of these things will be effective for him in the NFL, just as they were at the college level.

Dead on ABQ.

Style wise, he reminds me very much of Antonio Bryant with much better hands and without the attitude.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Underrated: Buster Davis, Florida State ( FILM ROOM)

The author sure hit it right with this kid.....all he does is make plays all over the field.....and hits hard....I don't care what his height says.

 

[JonJon]

He is a very skilled player. No doubt about that. I caught a few of his games over the last two seasons. However, when you watch college teams coached by Spurrier have you ever noticed that someone is always wide open?

His system is great for college because he out schemes you. When he got to the league, DCoordinators figured him out plus the corners were much better at that level requiring his receivers to actually sell moves through technique as opposed to physical skills. That is where most of Spurrier's receivers have failed. They beat most people with the scheme/gimmicks and their physical ability. Take Caldwell, Taylor, Hilliard or even more recently Troy Williamson.

Maybe Rice is the exception to the rule. If so, I wouldn't object to drafting him because he has the physical tools. I just hope he has the technique to go with the physicality.

Honestly, I can only comment on Hilliard and Williamson because I don't remember Caldwell or Taylor, but like Hilliard and Troy Williamson were speedy WRs in college. Spurrier would scheme so that Hilliard and Williamson were on slower defenders and run fly routes and screens to give them the advantage. Rice is fast, but certainly not as fast as Hillard and Williamson were coming out of college. Rice creates seperation by precision route running, and IMO, is a more complete than Hilliard or Williamson at this point in their careers. Like I said before, if Rice waited until next year, there is no doubt he would be one of the top 3 WRs selected, if not the #1 prospect, barring injury.

 

[jobberone]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBxxosXhS84

Yahoo has his scouting clip: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/prospects?rank_type=20

Thanks a lot. I appreciate your time He's very fluid. Good hips. Not real fast.

Yep, I've seen him play too much over the years. He's a great player. I like him much better then Wendling. In fact, the only safety I like better then Weddle is Landry. No BS.

That's means something. He didn't appear to be the athlete Meriweather or Nelson is but he was very smooth. Maybe we'll take a shot.

 

[doomsday81]

It's that time again, folks. Time for one of the most anticipated events of the NFL draft season (at least by my editor). Time for GMs to go scurrying to their war rooms to reevaluate their draft boards.
It's the fifth annual Overrated/Underrated column.

For those new to this tradition, I choose one player at each position who I feel is overrated by the various draft analysts, prognosticators and others who rank prospects for a living, and one who is underrated. I'm sorry to inform you that this list is not based off hundreds of hours of film evaluation or scouring combine results. It's based on a far-simpler method: Watching college football.

Every year, scouts unnecessarily drag down a few perfectly qualified prospects and foolishly prop up others due to their insistence on emphasizing so many things besides actual college production. While it's certainly not the only measuring stick, you would think such a thing would carry more weight than how fast a guy runs the 40-yard dash in shorts in February.
Past editions of this column have produced their share of both hits and misses. It's too early to judge the results of last year's just yet, though I definitely screwed up that Laurence Maroney bit. I'll go ahead and give myself some props for Marcus McNeill, though.

On to this year's crop, which, I must say, was the hardest one to do yet because ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... I think the scouts, for the most part, have it right. But there are exceptions.

Quarterback
Overrated: Brady Quinn, Notre Dame ( FILM ROOM)
Is Quinn worthy of a first-round pick? Absolutely. There's no slighting his productivity running Charlie Weis' pro-style offense the past two seasons. I just can't believe the Irish star is still being mentioned in the same breath as LSU's JaMarcus Russell. If you watched last year's Sugar Bowl, in which the two played on the same field, the difference was like night and day. (Or as one participant in the game told me, "Like high school vs. pee wee.")
Yes, Russell had the benefit of a better supporting cast, and yes, Quinn was facing a much tougher defense, but it was still painfully obvious that Russell was an elite-level prospect who made all sorts of ridiculous throws that neither Quinn nor any other college quarterback last year could dream of.
Whichever team winds up drafting Quinn is going to be getting a smart, skilled player who should succeed at the next level, but not some once-in-a-generation phenom you'd think about taking No. 1.

Underrated: Troy Smith, Ohio State ( FILM ROOM)
I've already devoted plentiful column space defending the plummeting Heisman winner. You can read that rant here. All I'll say here is that if Smith is truly considered a "late fourth-round" pick at this point, as SI.com's draft experts have billed him, then he can't get much more underrated than that.

Running Back
Overrated: Kenny Irons, Auburn ( FILM ROOM)
Irons' reputation was basically built during one particularly impressive six-game stretch toward the end of his junior season. He ran for 886 yards (nearly 150 per game) and eight touchdowns while carrying no fewer than 23 times in a contest.

Irons never came close to regaining that dominant form last season, barely gaining that many yards (893) over a full season. Injuries played a factor, causing him to miss two games and limiting him in others, but still he failed to exhibit the type of relentless running and make-you-miss moves of a guy who entered the season on most Heisman lists.
Teams that peg him as a future every-down NFL back will be taking a huge gamble that his one, glorious six-game run was the norm, not an exception.

Underrated: Michael Bush, Louisville ( FILM ROOM)
Talk about your costly injuries. A year ago, this guy was breathing down Adrian Peterson's neck as the top running back in this year's draft. Now, he's a sixth-rounder? Certainly, a broken leg is no small question mark, particularly since Bush just had a follow-up surgery last month to insert a new rod. But plenty of elite running backs have returned from devastating injuries to regained their previous form. If that happens in Bush's case, some lucky team is going to get a punishing, highly athletic runner who can be a beast in short-yardage and goal line situations (he scored 23 touchdowns as a junior).

Wide Receiver
Overrated: Dwayne Bowe, LSU ( FILM ROOM)
People have been drooling over this guy since the day he stepped foot on LSU's campus, and rightfully so, seeing as he's a strong, massive receiver who can get up and grab a jump ball. There's only one problem: He drops passes. Lots of them.

Much was made of his offseason LASIK surgery a year ago, and Bowe did cut down on his drops last year, but there were still some pretty big ones, most notably a wide-open touchdown against Florida that might have changed the course of what was then a 7-7 game (LSU wound up losing 23-10). He's a good receiver, one who had nearly 1,000 yards last season, but he was never quite as good as his lofty billing in college. Now he's being overhyped headed into the pros.

Underrated: Sidney Rice, South Carolina ( FILM ROOM)
For two straight years, Rice carried Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks offense on his back. One of those rare playmakers who can take over a game with only a couple of touches, he managed to rack up consecutive 1,000-yard seasons despite playing with average quarterbacks. Also, opposing defenses had to know Spurrier was going to try to get the ball to his star receiver at every possible opportunity.

Rice did come out after his redshirt sophomore year, perhaps raising concerns over whether he's ready to make the jump, but two full seasons as a primary receiver in the SEC is pretty substantial experience. You could easily justify ranking him higher than any receiver besides Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Jarrett.

Offensive Line
Overrated: Levi Brown, Penn State ( FILM ROOM)
To be fair, I had a hard time finding any offensive lineman this year that seemed grossly overrated, so with Brown it's mostly a case of nit-picking. It took a while for Brown to develop into an upper-echelon lineman, but by his junior and senior seasons he was fairly dominant. I'm just a little surprised to see him ranked so close to Outland winner Joe Thomas. The Wisconsin product is an otherworldly prospect who's shut down some of the nation's top pass-rushers and played a key role in the Badgers' powerful rushing attack; Brown was a solid performer for the Nittany Lions but his talents were hardly off the charts.

Underrated: Dan Mozes, West Virginia ( FILM ROOM)
The NFL is so rigid when it comes to the sizes it looks for at certain positions, that this 6-2 1/2, 293-pound center is barely considered draftable despite being one of the nation's most respected linemen the past two years. West Virginia ran for more than 300 yards per game last year, and Mozes was right at the center of attack. How many times did we see Steve Slaton or Pat White bursting through huge, gaping holes right in the center of the field? Particularly in a zone-blocking scheme like the Mountaineers', everything starts with the center, and Mozes was one of the nation's best. It's hard to believe he's not worthy of a selection somewhere over the course of seven rounds.

Defensive Line
Overrated: LaMarr Woodley, Michigan ( FILM ROOM)
We college writers were partially responsible for overhyping the Wolverines' rush end (though it should be noted that SI.com was one of the only organizations to leave him off its All-America first team). He was the guy putting up the big numbers (12 sacks) during Michigan's 11-game winning streak to start last season and therefore got much of the accolades.
In truth, it was interior lineman Alan Branch who played the biggest role in Michigan's dominant front four, paving the way for the nation's leading rush defense, and Woodley was eventually exposed in the season-ending Ohio State and USC games, in which he was barely a factor. Scouts seem to realize this as Woodley, once a projected first-round, is slipping deeper into the second round.

Underrated: Charles Johnson, Georgia ( FILM ROOM)
Headed into last season, Johnson's counterpart, Quentin Moses, was the Bulldogs' most acclaimed pass-rusher. It was Johnson, however, who ultimately racked up team highs with 9.5 sacks and 19 tackles for loss in helping continue Georgia's recent defensive dominance.
Because Johnson was a backup prior to last season and then came out a year early, GMs may feel like he doesn't have a proven enough track record. But from what we saw of him last season, he has all the makings of an elite pass-rusher who should have a productive NFL career.

Linebacker
Overrated: Stewart Bradley, Nebraska ( FILM ROOM)
In what is generally considered a weak linebacker class, Bradley is generally considered one of the top-five outside linebacker prospects. This should come as a surprise to anyone who watched a Nebraska game last year if, like me, you barely remember noticing him. After missing most of 2005 with a knee injury, Bradley returned last season to make a modest 76 tackles and six tackles for loss while earning honorable mention All-Big 12 honors. While these are admirable achievements, it's hard to believe there aren't a whole bunch of other, more accomplished prospects at his position.

Underrated: Buster Davis, Florida State ( FILM ROOM)
The universally low regard for Davis, a projected sixth-rounder, is one of the more shocking slights I've seen. If you watched a Florida State game last year, you couldn't possibly have missed Davis. He was the guy finding his way into nearly every play, routinely stuffing people in the backfield and generally wreaking havoc from whistle to whistle. He was every bit as productive, if not more so, as predecessors Ernie Sims and A.J. Nicholson, yet is not held in nearly the same regard as either them or current counterpart Lawrence Timmons. Presumably his height (just under 5-10) has a lot to do with that, but it didn't seem to hinder him in the past.

Defensive back
Overrated: Chris Houston, Arkansas ( FILM ROOM)
He's this year's definitive workout wonder. Houston was a good, not great cornerback for the Razorbacks last season, excelling in some games (USC, Tennessee), struggling in others (South Carolina, Florida). But he ran a 4.32 at the combine, bench-pressed some ridiculous amount and now suddenly he's the second coming of Lito Sheppard -- or at least a solid first-rounder. Not buying it. Houston certainly talks a big game, but he still casts no shortage of doubt. Perhaps some teams are that desperate for a cornerback (because top prospects Leon Hall and Aaron Ross aren't exactly sure-locks, either).

Underrated: Eric Weddle, Utah ( FILM ROOM)
I can't believe this guy isn't more coveted. Besides the fact he can play safety and cornerback (and quarterback, running back and kick returner), he's a proven, big-time playmaker who's earned consecutive Mountain West defensive player of the year awards and scored eight touchdowns last season. I would think scouts would pay particular attention to tape of the 2005 Emerald Bowl, in which Weddle helped hold Georgia Tech extraordinaire Calvin Johnson to two catches for 19 yards. He's not a freakish athlete like Reggie Nelson or LaRon Landry -- but he's pretty darn special. I'd take him high in the second round.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/stewart_mandel/04/19/overrated.underrated/index.html

Irons played the majority of his senior year with an ankle injury. That is huge when you are a running back. If you watch him on tape, there is a big difference in the way he cuts and his explosion from 2005 to 2006. LaMont Jordan and Curtis Martin are two other players who saw their draft stock drop because they tried to play through an ankle injury as seniors and their production suffered. I applaude Irons for playing hurt and I think he'll be a great pro. He was hindered by that ankle injury last year more than people realize. Add in that Auburn's quarterback sucked and defenses were keying on a running back who wasn't 100 percent, and that explains why Irons didn't put up the kind of numbers he had the previous season.

Also, I'm a LaMarr Woodley guy and even if you aren't, how can you call him overrated? He's not even expected to be a first round selection after having a monster senior season. If a team drafts Woodley in the second round when an average player like Anthony Gonzalez could go in Round 1, I don't see how you can call that overrated. If anything, Woodley isn't getting any respect at all, despite the fact that he's an absolute terror coming off the edge.

 

[theogt]

Bowe drops passes because he lacks concentration, and he tries to make the run before he's secured the catch. He's admited as much.

Bowe dropped passes in the past because of his vision. He didn't drop very many passes in '06 because his vision was corrected. Here's Bowe talking about just that:

http://play.rbn.com/?url=nfl/nfl/op...7/nfln/off/first_draft_wr_dwayne_bowe_300k.rm

If you think Rice doesn't create seperation, then you need to spend less time reading draft bios on the internet and start spending it actually watching football games. Ask Chris Houston about his ability to seperate. He certainly seperated a lot better from Houston than Bowe (who isn't exactly Mr. Burner himself) did.

Rice doesn't create separation. He's not fast enough. He doesn't use his body to create separation. He gets a lot of ball batted down because of this.

The reason Rice is ranked lower is because he's a raw sophomore who's just 20 years old, two years younger than Bowe, and should have stayed in school at least another year to polish his game. If he stayed all four years of eligibility, like Bowe did, he's probably a Top 10-15 pick in 2008 or 2009. Meanwhile, if Bowe came out after his sophomore or junior year like Rice did he's a 4th round draft pick, because he's played like a 4th round draft pick for most of his college career. Rice is just learning route running and still has tons of ceiling to reach. Bowe is what he is, and frankly, its just not that impressive for a 1st round draft pick.

Oh, ok. It couldn't possibly be because he has questionable speed and has played in a system that inflates his numbers. When his numbers are adjusted down to a normal amount of attempts they're well below what'd you look for in a top 10-15 pick.

You're right that Bowe would have been a lower pick if he'd come out earlier. Good thing he fixed his eye problem. The difference between Bowe and Rice is that Rice would never be a first round pick. He's a late 2nd rounder, and there's nothing he could do in 2007 in college to help that out.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Oh, ok. It couldn't possibly be because he has questionable speed and has played in a system that inflates his numbers. When his numbers are adjusted down to a normal amount of attempts they're well below what'd you look for in a top 10-15 pick.

and yet Bowe played in a better system statistically, hmmm

You're right that Bowe would have been a lower pick if he'd come out earlier. Good thing he fixed his eye problem. The difference between Bowe and Rice is that Rice would never be a first round pick. He's a late 2nd rounder, and there's nothing he could do in 2007 in college to help that out.

Robert Meachem over Dwayne Bowe/Sidney Rice

 

[jobberone]

Bowe dropped passes in the past because of his vision. He didn't drop very many passes in '06 because his vision was corrected. Here's Bowe talking about just that:

http://play.rbn.com/?url=nfl/nfl/op...7/nfln/off/first_draft_wr_dwayne_bowe_300k.rm

Rice doesn't create separation. He's not fast enough. He doesn't use his body to create separation. He gets a lot of ball batted down because of this.

Oh, ok. It couldn't possibly be because he has questionable speed and has played in a system that inflates his numbers. When his numbers are adjusted down to a normal amount of attempts they're well below what'd you look for in a top 10-15 pick.

You're right that Bowe would have been a lower pick if he'd come out earlier. Good thing he fixed his eye problem. The difference between Bowe and Rice is that Rice would never be a first round pick. He's a late 2nd rounder, and there's nothing he could do in 2007 in college to help that out.

This is what happens when they come out too early. Their production is questioned for whatever reason. If you'd seen SC's QB play you'd have a different opinion I think. I can't say what Rice would have done next year but he's better IMO than you're giving him credit for.

That said I'm not sure I'd draft him either...in the second. There are other WRs that can be had where he'll be drafted that are more seasoned, produced more over a longer time, and faster. He's too much a risk for me. Having said that I give him a good chance to be a number 2 WR in time and a good possesion and goal line WR. I think it will take 2-3 years before we see him start to peak.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

That said I'm not sure I'd draft him either...in the second. There are other WRs that can be had where he'll be drafted that are more seasoned, produced more over a longer time, and faster. He's too much a risk for me. Having said that I give him a good chance to be a number 2 WR in time and a good possesion and goal line WR. I think it will take 2-3 years before we see him start to peak.

but the beauty of it all is that Rice doesn't have to do much of anything his 1st year, there's a good chance we won't have to rely on him year 2 either, we have the time to develop him, if we don't take a WR in the 1st, and Rice is sitting there at 53, you take him, it's that simple IMO

 

[jobberone]

but the beauty of it all is that Rice doesn't have to do much of anything his 1st year, there's a good chance we won't have to rely on him year 2 either, we have the time to develop him, if we don't take a WR in the 1st, and Rice is sitting there at 53, you take him, it's that simple IMO

I don't think we're loaded enough to sit a number two pick for 1-2 years awaiting those in front of him to go away one way or another. Especially if you think he's going to be a number two WR anyway.

We need a DB or an edge rusher too much. I'm not saying we can't or even shouldn't draft for the future. It's ok. I just think we can draft for the future and the present with a DB or edge rusher. I think that's a more efficient way to use our resources. And it may be necessary for us do make a real run at the playoffs. I'm not sure an edge rusher will be present but if that's what you covet the most then Moss or Spencer might be around. One of the better safeties or CBs will almost certainly be around.

 

[jobberone]

Buster Davis is a third or fourth round pick. He's too small for me at 5-10. But he's 240 and fast. How tall was Mike Singletary?