NewsBot
New Member
- Messages
- 111,281
- Reaction score
- 2,947
Several times this offseason we’ve looked at Approximate Value in assessing the Cowboys. Let’s take another look.
Pro Football Reference developed a stat called Approximate Value.
Created by PFR founder Doug Drinen, the Approximate Value (AV) method is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1950).
They explain its purpose.
"AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."
What we’re going to use it for in this article is to see how many high-value players there were on each team in 2016. We don’t have data for this year yet, and we can’t guess how this year’s players will perform, so last year’s data will have to do for now.
We have chosen to arbitrarily cut off the evaluation at players who achieved a 10 AV or higher in 2016. 128 NFL players received grades that high or higher last year.
If those players were divided equally over the 32 teams, one would expect exactly four 10 AV players per team. Of course, that’s not how they were divided.
- 29 of the teams had at least one 10-AV or higher player. The three that didn’t? Chicago, San Francisco, and Cleveland.
- The top team had nine 10-AV or higher players, two teams had seven such players, and 14 teams had at least five such players.
Which teams had the highest number of players with 10 AV or higher? Which had the highest cumulative AV score for those players? Let’s look at the top 10 teams, ranked by cumulative AV.
1 - Atlanta Falcons
9 players, 124 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Matt Ryan
31
ATL
16
16
1
1
21
10
10
Julio Jones
27
ATL
14
14
1
1
16
13
13
Alex Mack
31
ATL
16
16
1
0
16
20
20
Devonta Freeman
24
ATL
16
16
1
0
15
51
51
Vic Beasley
24
ATL
16
12
1
1
12
58
58
Jake Matthews
24
ATL
16
16
0
0
12
64
64
Ryan Schraeder
28
ATL
16
16
0
0
12
98
98
Chris Chester
33
ATL
16
16
0
0
10
111
111
Andy Levitre
30
ATL
16
16
0
0
10
2 - Dallas Cowboys6 players, 87 Av
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
9
9
Ezekiel Elliott
21
DAL
15
15
1
1
16
11
11
Sean Lee
30
DAL
15
15
1
1
16
15
15
Dak Prescott
23
DAL
16
16
1
0
16
37
37
Travis Frederick
25
DAL
16
16
1
1
13
41
41
Zack Martin
26
DAL
16
16
1
1
13
50
50
Tyron Smith
26
DAL
13
13
1
1
13
3 - New England Patriots7 players, 84 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
26
26
Dont'a Hightower
26
NWE
13
13
1
0
14
31
31
Tom Brady
39
NWE
12
12
1
0
13
32
32
Malcolm Butler
26
NWE
16
16
0
0
13
33
33
Marcus Cannon
28
NWE
15
15
0
0
13
78
78
Julian Edelman
30
NWE
16
13
0
0
11
112
112
Devin McCourty
29
NWE
16
16
1
0
10
120
120
Nate Solder
28
NWE
15
15
0
0
10
4 - Kansas City Chiefs7 players, 77 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
48
48
Marcus Peters
23
KAN
15
15
1
1
13
52
52
Eric Berry
28
KAN
16
16
1
1
12
65
65
Alex Smith
32
KAN
15
15
1
0
12
105
105
Tyreek Hill
22
KAN
16
1
1
1
10
107
107
Travis Kelce
27
KAN
16
15
1
1
10
117
117
Mitchell Schwartz
27
KAN
16
16
0
0
10
123
123
Spencer Ware
25
KAN
14
14
0
0
10
5/6 - Seattle Seahawks6 players, 73 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
6
6
Bobby Wagner
26
SEA
16
16
1
1
17
30
30
Russell Wilson
28
SEA
16
16
0
0
14
70
70
Cliff Avril
30
SEA
16
16
1
0
11
90
90
K.J. Wright
27
SEA
16
16
1
0
11
93
93
Doug Baldwin
28
SEA
16
15
1
0
10
119
119
Richard Sherman
28
SEA
16
16
1
0
10
5/6 - Tennessee Titans6 players, 73 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
17
17
Jack Conklin
22
TEN
16
16
0
1
15
40
40
Marcus Mariota
23
TEN
15
15
0
0
13
60
60
DeMarco Murray
28
TEN
16
16
1
0
12
74
74
Jurrell Casey
27
TEN
15
15
1
0
11
82
82
Taylor Lewan
25
TEN
16
16
1
0
11
84
84
Brian Orakpo
30
TEN
16
16
1
0
11
7 - Buffalo Bills6 players, 71 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
23
23
Tyrod Taylor
27
BUF
15
15
0
0
15
42
42
LeSean McCoy
28
BUF
15
15
1
0
13
68
68
Lorenzo Alexander
33
BUF
16
16
1
0
11
72
72
Zach Brown
27
BUF
16
16
1
0
11
80
80
Richie Incognito
33
BUF
16
16
1
0
11
113
113
Jordan Mills
26
BUF
16
16
0
0
10
8 - Green Bay Packers5 players, 69 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
3
3
Aaron Rodgers
33
GNB
16
16
1
0
18
4
4
David Bakhtiari
25
GNB
16
16
1
0
17
46
46
Jordy Nelson
31
GNB
16
16
0
0
13
73
73
Bryan Bulaga
27
GNB
16
16
0
0
11
91
91
Davante Adams
24
GNB
16
15
0
0
10
9 - New York Giants5 players, 68 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
2
2
Damon Harrison
28
NYG
16
16
0
1
18
24
24
Olivier Vernon
26
NYG
16
16
0
0
15
35
35
Landon Collins
22
NYG
16
16
1
1
13
57
57
Janoris Jenkins
28
NYG
15
15
1
0
12
95
95
Odell Beckham
24
NYG
16
16
1
0
10
10 - New Orleans Saints6 players, 68 AV
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
G
GS
PB
AP1
AV
7
7
Drew Brees
37
NOR
16
16
1
0
16
75
75
Brandin Cooks
23
NOR
16
12
0
0
11
88
88
Zach Strief
33
NOR
16
16
0
0
11
106
106
Mark Ingram
27
NOR
16
14
0
0
10
115
115
Andrus Peat
23
NOR
15
15
0
0
10
122
122
Michael Thomas
23
NOR
15
12
0
0
10
Everyone ElseWe won’t chart out all the rest of the players, but here’s how the other teams rank by total AV.
Oakland, 5 players, 61 AV
Pittsburgh, 5 players, 61 AV
Washington, 5 players, 56 AV
Arizona, 4 players, 53 AV
Miami, 5 players, 53 AV
Indianapolis, 4 players, 50 AV
Tampa, 4 players, 47 AV
Denver, 3 players, 45 AV
Minnesota, 4 players, 45 AV
Cincinnati, 4 players, 44 AV
Philadelphia, 4 players, 44 AV
Houston, 3 players, 39 AV
Baltimore, 3 players, 38 AV
Los Angeles Chargers, 3 players, 34 AV
Carolina, 3 players, 32 AV
Los Angeles Rams, 2 players, 28 AV
Detroit, 2 players, 24 AV
New York Jets, 1 player, 10 AV
Jacksonville, 1 player, 10 AV. (Puts to lie Barry Church’s claim that Jacksonville has more talent than Dallas.)
Analysis and Final Notes
The way the teams line up is fairly consistent with how they played last year. Atlanta and New England, ranked first and third, played in the Super Bowl. Dallas, ranked second, finished with the best record in the NFC and was led by its two high-value rookies and offensive line. Sure, New Orleans and Buffalo may be outliers, but perhaps they just have very poor supporting casts for their stars.
Dallas has the youngest group of high-value players, with its six players averaging just 25.1 years old. They are followed by NYG (25.6), TN (25.8), KC (26.2), NO (27.6), SEA (27.8), GB (28), ATL (28), BUF (29), NE (29.4).
Dallas also retained all six of its high-value players. Meanwhile, Chris Chester, an offensive guard who scored 10 AV for the Falcons, retired. We didn’t track who might have moved on from other teams, but the names are above for the top-10 teams.
Overall, this bodes really well for the Cowboys. In addition to the overall scores and ages of the Cowboys who made the cut, Cole Beasley just missed the cut with 9 AV, Dez Bryant scored 8 AV last year, but has had years as high as 14 AV, Maliek Collins scored 7 AV as a rookie, and has tremendous upside, and Jaylon Smith should attain those levels, if not this season, then perhaps by 2018 and beyond. La’el Collins also has the potential to add to the luster of the Dallas offensive line. Can Byron Jones make the leap from 6 AV to Landon Collins levels (13 AV)? Can DeMarcus Lawrence have a big season in his contract year?
Continue reading...