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We have looked at the last seven Cowboys drafts to see what Dallas might expect. Now we are going to use Approximate Value again and focus on pass rushers and defensive backs.
This is not officially a series, but it is to the extent that it’s the fourth recent article we’ve written using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric.
Created by PFR founder Doug Drinen, the Approximate Value (AV) method is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1950).
We used this stat in going over the last seven Cowboy’s drafts. We then used it to compare Ezekiel Elliott and Jalen Ramsey’s rookie seasons. And lastly we used it to compare the rookie value of every Dallas Cowboys draft back to 1961. In that comparison, the 2016 draft came out on top with two of the best rookie seasons in Cowboys history - by Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
Now we’re going to look at the last 10 NFL drafts at the two positions Dallas is expected to focus most of their draft attention on — defensive line/pass rush, and defensive back. Using approximate value as the measuring stick, how many players have had rookie seasons that could qualify as above average in value?
Before we get to that, we need to decide where to draw the line. In 2016, PFR graded 1,589 NFL players with a 1 or higher. There were players who received a 0, and even some who received a negative number. Because “0” is not a positive value, we have excluded all the zeros and negative scoring players.
How do the other players break down? These are the PFR AV scores, followed by the number of players with that score in 2016.
21-1
12--17
5--142
18-2
18-2
11--23
4--127
17-3
17-3
10--38
3--181
16-8
16-8
9--37
2--256
15-9
15-9
8--56
1--425
14-6
14-6
7--109
13-20
13-20
6--127
The median point in terms of value is at the high end of the players with 6 AV scores. The average score of all valued players was 4.12 AV. For purposes of this article, we’ve decided to go with the rookies who scored 5 AV or above as “above average”, though a 7 AV or higher, which is above the median value, might be more indicative of an impact rookie.
Note here that AV is not a perfect system. But these words of its founder are relevant.
"AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."
That last line is essentially how we are using the stat - by evaluating the group of players at a given level of AV, and seeing how many of them there are in any particular year at certain positions and certain draft slots.
Defensive Linemen
With the preliminaries taken care of, let’s look at all the defensive linemen taken in the last 10 drafts who have performed at a 5 AV or higher as rookies. We’re are using PFRs slotting for position, and not including outside linebackers who might be rush players because many of them would not be suited to Dallas’s 4-3 alignment.
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Draft
Tm
G
GS
Yrs
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Ndamukong Suh
2010
23
1--2
DET
16
16
1
1
1
15
2
2
Aaron Donald
2014
23
1--13
STL
16
12
1
1
0
11
3
3
Jabaal Sheard
2011
22
2--37
CLE
16
16
1
0
0
10
4
4
J.J. Watt
2011
22
1--11
HOU
16
16
1
0
0
10
5
5
Muhammad Wilkerson
2011
22
1--30
NYJ
16
16
1
0
0
10
6
6
Star Lotulelei
2013
24
1--14
CAR
16
16
1
0
0
9
7
7
Brian Orakpo
2009
23
1--13
WAS
16
16
1
1
0
9
8
8
Phil Taylor
2011
23
1--21
CLE
16
16
1
0
0
9
9
9
Leonard Williams
2015
21
1--6
NYJ
16
15
1
0
0
9
10
10
Jurrell Casey
2011
22
3--77
TEN
16
15
1
0
0
8
11
11
Derek Wolfe
2012
22
2--36
DEN
16
16
1
0
0
8
12
12
Vic Beasley
2015
23
1--8
ATL
16
16
1
0
0
7
13
13
Malcom Brown
2015
21
1--32
NWE
16
12
1
0
0
7
14
14
DeForest Buckner
2016
22
1--7
SFO
15
15
1
0
0
7
15
15
Maliek Collins
2016
21
3--67
DAL
16
14
1
0
0
7
16
16
Marcell Dareus
2011
21
1--3
BUF
16
15
1
0
0
7
17
17
Javon Hargrave
2016
23
3--89
PIT
15
13
1
0
0
7
18
18
Lamarr Houston
2010
23
2--44
OAK
16
15
1
0
0
7
19
19
Edward Johnson
2007
24
IND
16
16
1
0
0
7
20
20
Cameron Jordan
2011
22
1--24
NOR
16
15
1
0
0
7
21
21
Terrance Knighton
2009
23
3--72
JAX
16
16
1
0
0
7
22
22
Yannick Ngakoue
2016
21
3--69
JAX
16
15
1
0
0
7
23
23
Emmanuel Ogbah
2016
23
2--32
CLE
16
16
1
0
0
7
24
24
Corey Peters
2010
22
3--83
ATL
16
15
1
0
0
7
25
25
Gaines Adams
2007
24
1--4
TAM
16
8
1
0
0
6
26
26
Tyson Alualu
2010
23
1--10
JAX
16
16
1
0
0
6
27
27
Jamaal Anderson
2007
21
1--8
ATL
16
16
1
0
0
6
28
28
Ezekiel Ansah
2013
24
1--5
DET
14
12
1
0
0
6
29
29
Joey Bosa
2016
21
1--3
SDG
12
11
1
0
0
6
30
30
Michael Brockers
2012
22
1--14
STL
13
12
1
0
0
6
31
31
Adam Carriker
2007
23
1--13
STL
16
16
1
0
0
6
32
32
Glenn Dorsey
2008
23
1--5
KAN
16
16
1
0
0
6
33
33
Justin Ellis
2014
24
4--107
OAK
16
14
1
0
0
6
34
34
Sedrick Ellis
2008
23
1--7
NOR
13
13
1
0
0
6
35
35
Eddie Goldman
2015
21
2--39
CHI
15
12
1
0
0
6
36
36
Rodney Gunter
2015
23
4--116
ARI
16
11
1
0
0
6
37
37
Tyson Jackson
2009
23
1--3
KAN
16
14
1
0
0
6
38
38
Chandler Jones
2012
22
1--21
NWE
14
13
1
0
0
6
39
39
Chris Jones
2013
23
6--198
NWE
13
11
1
0
0
6
40
40
Chris Jones
2016
22
2--37
KAN
16
11
1
0
0
6
41
41
Kendall Langford
2008
22
3--66
MIA
16
13
1
0
0
6
42
42
Chris Long
2008
23
1--2
STL
16
16
1
0
0
6
43
43
Gerald McCoy
2010
22
1--3
TAM
13
13
1
0
0
6
44
44
Brandon Mebane
2007
22
3--85
SEA
16
10
1
0
0
6
45
45
David Parry
2015
23
5--151
IND
16
16
1
0
0
6
46
46
Andrus Peat
2015
22
1--13
NOR
12
8
1
0
0
6
47
47
Dontari Poe
2012
22
1--11
KAN
16
16
1
0
0
6
48
48
Sheldon Richardson
2013
23
1--13
NYJ
16
15
1
0
0
6
49
49
Danny Shelton
2015
22
1--12
CLE
16
15
1
0
0
6
50
50
Billy Winn
2012
23
6--205
CLE
16
10
1
0
0
6
51
51
Adrian Clayborn
2011
23
1--20
TAM
16
16
1
0
0
5
52
52
Mario Edwards
2015
21
2--35
OAK
14
10
1
0
0
5
53
53
Eric Foster
2008
23
IND
13
11
1
0
0
5
54
54
Lawrence Jackson
2008
23
1--28
SEA
16
14
1
0
0
5
55
55
Jarvis Jenkins
2012
24
2--41
WAS
16
14
1
0
0
5
56
56
Corey Liuget
2011
21
1--18
SDG
15
13
1
0
0
5
57
57
Bennie Logan
2013
24
3--67
PHI
16
8
1
0
0
5
58
58
Amobi Okoye
2007
20
1--10
HOU
16
14
1
0
0
5
59
59
Jay Richardson
2007
23
5--138
OAK
16
11
1
0
0
5
60
60
Akeem Spence
2013
22
4--100
TAM
16
14
1
0
0
5
61
61
Joe Vellano
2013
25
NWE
16
8
1
0
0
5
62
62
Jihad Ward
2016
22
2--44
OAK
16
13
1
0
0
5
What can we glean from this table? Let’s see:
- There have been 62 rookie defensive linemen with AVs of 5 or above over the last 10 drafts. That’s about six per year. But it’s not equally divided. Some years are better than others, with eight in 2016, nine in 2015, two in 2014, seven in 2013, six in 2012, nine in 2011, five in 2010, three in 2009, six in 2008, and seven in 2007.
- Before you conclude, based on this, that Dallas just has to select a defensive lineman in the first round (or later) to get someone who performs at a 5 AV or higher, please note that even first round picks don’t always pan out. 33 defensive linemen picked in the first round in this 10-year period have scored a 4 AV or below, including three who scored zeros as rookies. That compares to 34 first-rounders who have scored 5 AV or higher as rookies. And that includes all first-rounders, including any taken at the top of the draft, where hits are more likely than at the bottom of each round, where Dallas picks this year.
- You could count DeMarcus Lawrence as among these misses. Even though he was a second-round pick, it was at the top of round two and cost Dallas its third-rounder. Lawrence rated 1 AV as a rookie.
- 24 of the 62 defensive linemen scored a 7 AV or higher, including Maliek Collins, the only Cowboys draft pick on the defensive line to have done so in the last 10 years. Collins is the only Cowboys draft pick on this chart. 50 of the 62 defensive linemen scored 6 AV or higher.
- It’s very hard to get a really high-value rookie, with only 11 defensive linemen over 10 years ranking 8 AV or above, although four of these were within range of where Dallas will draft this year.
- Some teams have done better at drafting these players, or been more committed to selecting them. Cleveland and Oakland have drafted five each, Kansas City, New England, St. Louis (LA) and Tampa have drafted four each, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the New York Jets have drafted three each. That means 11 of 32 teams (one-third) have drafted 41 of the 62 linemen (two-thirds) on this list.
- When looking at draft slot, 31 - or half - have been drafted ahead of where the Cowboys pick this year in the first round. 12 players have been taken between the 28th and 60th pick, where Dallas selects in the second round. Nine more have been taken between the 60th and 92nd pick, and the remaining 10 have been drafted in the fourth round or lower, including three UDFAs. This means you can find good players throughout the draft, but you have to be highly skilled and a bit lucky to hit on them.
- Needless to say, the lower you go in the draft, the longer the odds of hitting on one of these picks.
What are the numbers for defensive backs? The reason I did this article was to shed some light on the comparative values of defensive linemen and backs. Here are the comparable numbers.
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Draft
Tm
G
GS
Yrs
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Patrick Peterson
2011
21
1--5
ARI
16
16
1
1
1
20
2
2
Brandon Browner
2011
27
SEA
16
16
1
1
0
11
3
3
Devin McCourty
2010
23
1--27
NWE
16
16
1
1
0
11
4
4
Marcus Peters
2015
22
1--18
KAN
16
16
1
1
0
11
5
5
Eric Berry
2010
22
1--5
KAN
16
16
1
1
0
10
6
6
Tanard Jackson
2007
22
4--106
TAM
16
16
1
0
0
9
7
7
Eric Reid
2013
22
1--18
SFO
16
16
1
1
0
9
8
8
Jairus Byrd
2009
23
2--42
BUF
14
11
1
1
0
8
9
9
Janoris Jenkins
2012
24
2--39
STL
15
14
1
0
0
8
10
10
Jalen Ramsey
2016
22
1--5
JAX
16
16
1
0
0
8
11
11
Matt Elam
2013
22
1--32
BAL
16
15
1
0
0
7
12
12
E.J. Gaines
2014
22
6-188
STL
15
15
1
0
0
7
13
13
Charles Godfrey
2008
23
3--67
CAR
16
16
1
0
0
7
14
14
LaRon Landry
2007
23
1--6
WAS
16
16
1
0
0
7
15
15
Reggie Nelson
2007
24
1--21
JAX
16
15
1
0
0
7
16
16
Darrelle Revis
2007
22
1--14
NYJ
16
16
1
0
0
7
17
17
Harrison Smith
2012
23
1--29
MIN
16
16
1
0
0
7
18
18
Earl Thomas
2010
21
1--14
SEA
16
16
1
0
0
7
19
19
Gerald Alexander
2007
23
2--61
DET
16
16
1
0
0
6
20
20
Ricardo Allen
2015
24
5-147
ATL
15
14
1
0
0
6
21
21
Adrian Amos
2015
22
5-142
CHI
16
16
1
0
0
6
22
22
Mark Barron
2012
23
1--7
TAM
16
16
1
0
0
6
23
23
James Bradberry
2016
23
2--62
CAR
13
13
1
0
0
6
24
24
Bashaud Breeland
2014
22
4-102
WAS
16
15
1
0
0
6
25
25
Morris Claiborne
2012
22
1--6
DAL
15
15
1
0
0
6
26
26
Derek Cox
2009
23
3--73
JAX
16
16
1
0
0
6
27
27
Ronald Darby
2015
21
2--50
BUF
15
15
1
0
0
6
28
28
Vernon Hargreaves
2016
21
1--1
TAM
16
16
1
0
0
6
29
29
Mike Harris
2012
23
6-176
JAX
15
6
1
0
0
6
30
30
Chris Horton
2008
24
7-249
WAS
14
10
1
0
0
6
31
31
Kenny Vaccaro
2013
23
1--15
NOR
14
14
1
0
0
6
32
32
T.J. Ward
2010
24
2--38
CLE
16
16
1
0
0
6
33
33
Kenneth Acker
2015
23
6-180
SFO
15
13
1
0
0
5
34
34
Andrew Adams
2016
24
NYG
14
13
1
0
0
5
35
35
Al Afalava
2009
22
6-190
CHI
13
13
1
0
0
5
36
36
Nate Allen
2010
23
2--37
PHI
13
13
1
0
0
5
37
37
Johnthan Banks
2013
24
2--43
TAM
16
16
1
0
0
5
38
38
Artie Burns
2016
21
1--25
PIT
16
9
1
0
0
5
39
39
Brandon Carr
2008
22
5-140
KAN
16
16
1
0
0
5
40
40
Landon Collins
2015
21
2--33
NYG
16
16
1
0
0
5
41
41
Jonathan Cyprien
2013
23
2--33
JAX
15
15
1
0
0
5
42
42
Louis Delmas
2009
22
2--33
DET
15
15
1
0
0
5
43
43
Kyle Fuller
2014
22
1--14
CHI
16
14
1
0
0
5
44
44
Stephon Gilmore
2012
22
1--10
BUF
16
16
1
0
0
5
45
45
Michael Griffin
2007
22
1--19
TEN
16
10
1
0
0
5
46
46
Joe Haden
2010
21
1--7
CLE
16
7
1
0
0
5
47
47
Chris Houston
2007
23
2--41
ATL
16
11
1
0
0
5
48
48
Kareem Jackson
2010
22
1--20
HOU
16
16
1
0
0
5
49
49
Kevin Johnson
2015
23
1--16
HOU
16
10
1
0
0
5
50
50
Jacob Lacey
2009
22
IND
16
9
1
0
0
5
51
51
Kendrick Lewis
2010
22
5-136
KAN
12
10
1
0
0
5
52
52
Leodis McKelvin
2008
23
1--11
BUF
16
6
1
0
0
5
53
53
Dee Milliner
2013
22
1--9
NYJ
13
12
1
0
0
5
54
54
Josh Norman
2012
25
5-143
CAR
16
12
1
0
0
5
55
55
Jerraud Powers
2009
22
3--92
IND
12
12
1
0
0
5
56
56
Calvin Pryor
2014
22
1--18
NYJ
16
11
1
0
0
5
57
57
Damarious Randall
2015
23
1--30
GNB
15
9
1
0
0
5
58
58
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
2008
22
1--16
ARI
16
11
1
0
0
5
59
59
Aaron Ross
2007
25
1--20
NYG
15
9
1
0
0
5
60
60
Richard Sherman
2011
23
5-154
SEA
16
10
1
0
0
5
61
61
Sean Smith
2009
22
2--61
MIA
16
16
1
0
0
5
62
62
Desmond Trufant
2013
23
1--22
ATL
16
16
1
0
0
5
63
63
Alterraun Verner
2010
22
4-104
TEN
16
12
1
0
0
5
64
64
Melvin White
2013
23
CAR
15
10
1
0
0
5
65
65
Daryl Worley
2016
21
3--77
CAR
16
11
1
0
0
5
66
66
Eric Wright
2007
22
2--53
CLE
14
13
1
0
0
5
67
67
Tavon Young
2016
22
4-104
BAL
16
11
1
0
0
5
What can we glean from these numbers?
- There have been 67 rookie defensive backs (compared to 62 DLs) with AVs of 5 or above the last 10 drafts. Again, not evenly divided by years. 2007 - 7, 2008 - 6, 2009 - 3, 2010 - 5, 2011 - 9, 2012 - 6, 2013 - 7, 2014 - 2, 2015 - 9, 2016 - 8.
- 30 of the 67 DBs picked in round one scored grades of 5 AV or higher, compared to 26 first-rounders who scored 4 AV or below as rookies.
- Only 18 of the 67 DBs scored a 7 AV or higher, none of them Cowboys. Mo Claiborne’s 6 AV is the only Cowboys draft pick on this chart. Only 32 of the DBs scored 6 AV or higher.
- It’s very hard to get a really high-value rookie, with only 10 DBs over 10 years ranking 8 AV or above (it was 11 for DL), although four of these were within range of where Dallas will draft this year, just as with DLs.
- Some teams have done better at drafting these players, or been more committed to selecting them. Carolina and Jacksonville have drafted five each, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Tampa have drafted four each, Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, NYG, NYJ, Seattle, and Washington three each.
- When looking at draft slot, 27 - or 40% - have been drafted ahead of where the Cowboys pick this year in the first round. 14 players have been taken between the 28th and 60th pick, where Dallas selects in the second round. Seven more have been taken between the 60th and 92nd pick, and the remaining 19 have been drafted in the 4th round or lower, including four UDFAs.
One thing you notice is how similar the numbers are for defensive linemen and defensive backs.
- Overall numbers are very close: 62 v 67.
- Slightly higher overall success rate for first round DBs - 30 of 56 (53%) score 5 AV or higher versus 34 of 67 (50%) for DLs.
- Higher ratio of DLs scored 7 AV or above: 24 of 62 (39%) v. 18 of 67 (27%) for DBs. Much higher ratio of DLs scored 6 AV or above: 50 of 62 (80%) v. 32 of 67 (48%) for DBs.
- Getting an 8 AV or above is just as hard with DL (11) as DBs (10).
- The Cowboys have drafted well overall, but they have drafted poorly at these positions in recent years, with only Maliek Collins (7 AV) and Mo Claiborne (6 AV) registering as rookies in the last 10 drafts.
Finally, there is a slightly better chance of finding a performing defensive back lower in the draft than a defensive lineman. Is this the most important finding? I’m not sure you can hang much on this, but 50% of the 5+ AV defensive linemen were taken in the first round above where Dallas picks at 28th, while only 40% of the similar DBs were. And 28% of 5+ AV DBs could be found in the fourth round or lower, while only 16% of the defensive linemen could be found that far down.
Does that suggest the Cowboys should lean towards taking the defensive lineman first, because they are slightly more likely to find a good DB later? Maybe. Reinforcing this is the higher number of DLs scoring 6 AV or higher. But the limited overall success rate suggests you need to go with the player you think will provide the most value, regardless of position, as long as they fit your team.
What Do The Cowboys Need To Replace?
The free agent DBs and DLs Dallas lost scored as follows last year in AV.
- Brandon Carr - 6 AV
- Barry Church - 5 AV
- Mo Claiborne - 3 AV
- J.J. Wilcox - 2 AV
- Terrell McClain - 7 AV
- Jack Crawford - 6 AV
Will they be able to draft immediate upgrades? The odds are unlikely that Dallas’ picks will be immediate upgrades over Carr and Church, McClain and Crawford. On the defensive line, the Cowboys have new free agents and returning players like Irving and Lawrence they hope will fill the void. And in the secondary, Nolan Carroll scored a 6 AV last year with Philadelphia, and Anthony Brown might improve on his 4 AV. If everyone stays healthy, the Cowboys may not have to lean too much on new cornerbacks. The biggest gap may be at safety with the loss of Barry Church, with Jeff Heath and Kavon Frazier big unknowns.
Overall, there will be players to be had where Dallas selects, but they’ll have to be some combination of lucky and good to come out with the right guys.
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