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A look at how five different draft analysts are ranking the top 15 corners and defensive ends in the 2017 NFL Draft.
The title of this post may feel like a no-brainer, after all, doesn't good scouting always win the draft?
Of course it does. But the 2017 NFL draft may present a very special set of circumstances that make it even more important to get it right, especially for teams drafting in the second half of each round.
The Cowboys have two key positions of need going into the draft, defensive end and cornerback. You'd think that with needs as clearly defined as that, there'd be no more than a handful of prospects that would be considered as targets for the Cowboys. But that's not the case. At all.
Less than a week ago I looked at 50 different mock drafts to see whether a few consensus prospects would have emerged as targets for the Cowboys in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. But no such luck, as 19 different players were mocked to the Cowboys, of which six were corners and six were defensive ends.
What these mocks highlight is that beyond perhaps the top one or two guys, there is no consensus how the draft prospects rank after that. On average, about four corners and DEs each get picked in the first round, which means the Cowboys at No. 28 will likely be in play for the fourth-best DE or corner. But which player is that?
It's one thing if the people putting together mock drafts can't agree on a ranking for each position, but it's no different when you look at the rankings some draft analysts are proposing. I looked at Dane Brugler's 2017 NFL Draft Guide, Eric Galko's Optimum Scouting Draft Guide, Ian Wharton's Draft Guide, the PFF Draft Guide, as well as Scott Wright's ranking as found on draftcoundown.com. The table below summarizes the top 15 pass rushers according to each source.
Rank
Dane Brugler
Eric Galko
Ian Wharton
PFF
Wright
1
1
Myles Garrett
Myles Garrett
Myles Garrett
Myles Garrett
Myles Garrett
2
2
Derek Barnett
Jonathan Allen
Solomon Thomas
Derek Barnett
Solomon Thomas
3
3
Takkarist McKinley
Solomon Thomas
Carl Lawson
Carl Lawson
Takkarist McKinley
4
4
T.J. Watt
Jordan Willis
Charles Harris
Solomon Thomas
Derek Barnett
5
5
Charles Harris
Takkarist McKinley
Takkarist McKinley
Jordan Willis
Taco Charlton
6
6
Taco Charlton
Taco Charlton
Jordan Willis
Tim Williams
Charles Harris
7
7
Carl Lawson
Carl Lawson
Joe Mathis
Haason Reddick
Daeshon Hall
8
8
Tarell Basham
Derek Barnett
Tim Williams
Charles Harris
Carl Lawson
9
9
Jordan Willis
Daeshon Hall
Derek Barnett
T.J. Watt
Jordan Willis
10
10
Derek Rivers
Charles Harris
Derek Rivers
Taco Charlton
Tarell Basham
11
11
Tyus Bowser
Dawuane Smoot
Dawuane Smoot
Takkarist McKinley
DeMarcus Walker
12
12
Tim Williams
Tarell Basham
Vince Biegel
Deatrich Wise
Trey Hendrickson
13
13
Tanoh Kpassagnon
Deatrich Wise
Taco Charlton
Dawuane Smoot
Tanoh Kpassagnon
14
14
Joe Mathis
Keionta Davis
T.J. Watt
Trey Hendrickson
Derek Rivers
15
15
Dawuane Smoot
Tanoh Kpassagnon
Daeshon Hall
Ryan Anderson
Dawuane Smoot
The only thing the five sources agree on is that Myles Garrett is the top edge rusher in this class, but it quickly gets murky after that. And the variability in these different draft boards is exactly why scouting is so important this year.
Take the case of Carl Lawson. Dane Brugler and Eric Galko both have him ranked 7th overall, which would likely make him a day two target. Ian Wharton and PFF have him ranked 3rd overall, which would make him a prime prospect and a priority for the Cowboys.
Or take Jordan Willis, a very popular player among Cowboys fans. Brugler and Wright have him ranked 9th overall, suggesting he would likely be available for the Cowboys at the bottom of the second round. The other three boards have him ranked 4th, 5th, and 6th overall, suggesting Willis should be a strong consideration at No. 28.
Both cases illustrate how little agreement there is this year on the talent. Perhaps it's because the players are very closely bunched, perhaps it's because the players are a tougher group to rank than normal.
And in this environment with a lot of ambiguity, teams with good scouting will prosper.
In a draft where there is a very real risk of drafting a guy at No. 28 who's a third-round talent at best, the ability to correctly grade players is key, especially when considering that roughly half the players picked in the first round will never do anything noteworthy in the NFL, as Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff explained last year.
"According to our most recent statistics that we drew on the first round, it’s less than 60 percent of those players that are starting," Dimitroff said. "I think it may have come in at 56 percent. So point being it’s not an exact science, we know that. There are so many other things that are involved in it. The first step is finding out whether that player has the adept skills on the field, of course. Many other areas that we’re looking into to make sure they’re fits in the organization. [Do] they have the mental capacity, they have the character capacity, and the team element that a team is looking for? Again, you’d better have a plan for the guys who are a little bit wayward in their approach. That’s alway been a big discussion point as well."
On to the cornerbacks, where our collection of draft experts can't even agree on who the best cornerback in the draft is.
Rank
Dane Brugler
Eric Galko
Ian Wharton
PFF
Wright
1
1
Marshon Lattimore
Marshon Lattimore
Marshon Lattimore
Marshon Lattimore
Marlon Humphrey
2
2
Marlon Humphrey
Tre’Davious White
Sidney Jones
Tre’Davious White
Marshon Lattimore
3
3
Tre’Davious White
Marlon Humphrey
Gareon Conley
Jourdan Lewis
Gareon Conley
4
4
Gareon Conley
Teez Tabor
Fabian Moreau
Teez Tabor
Sidney Jones
5
5
Fabian Moreau
Quincy Wilson
Cordrea Tankersley
Marlon Humphrey
Tre’Davious White
6
6
Chidobe Awuzie
Adoree’ Jackson
Tre’Davious White
Cordrea Tankersley
Teez Tabor
7
7
Kevin King
Gareon Conley
Marlon Humphrey
Desmond King
Adoree’ Jackson
8
8
Jourdan Lewis
Kevin King
Adoree’ Jackson
Adoree’ Jackson
Quincy Wilson
9
9
Teez Tabor
Sidney Jones
Quincy Wilson
Gareon Conley
Chidobe Awuzie
10
10
Cordrea Tankersley
Desmond King
Cameron Sutton
Sidney Jones
Cordrea Tankersley
11
11
Adoree’ Jackson
Cameron Sutton
Corn Elder
Quincy Wilson
Fabian Moreau
12
12
Ahkello Witherspoon
Cordrea Tankersley
Jourdan Lewis
Chidobe Awuzie
Jourdan Lewis
13
13
Sidney Jones
Damontae kaKzee
Kevin King
Ahkello Witherspoon
Kevin King
14
14
Corn Elder
Jourdan Lewis
Chidobe Awuzie
Corn Elder
Rasul Douglas
15
15
Rasul Douglas
Chidobe Awuzie
Teez Tabor
Kevin King
Ahkello Witherspoon
A side effect of the different assessments outlined here, is that regardless of which player the Cowboys pick, somebody will inevitably call it a reach.
In the end, as much as we try to objectively assess the draft prospects leading up to the draft, we all listen to people we trust (more or less) to form our own opinions on these prospects. And if even these experts don't agree, where does that leave us?
Ultimately, there is only one draft board that counts, and that's the one the Cowboys built. We can only hope that their scouts did a good job in putting it together, and that they will stick to it on draft day. And with a little bit of luck, they might just find the right guys, even if we may not all agree with their selections at first.
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