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NFL players typically improve the most between their first and second seasons, and it should be no different in Dallas.
In our recent series of “Burning Questions”, question #2 asked - Can Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott Be Better in 2017? The article recounted Dak and Zeke’s incredible performance metrics from 2016 and suggested ways they might be better.
I think the conclusion one would have to draw for Dak Prescott is that he’s likely to be better, given how hard he works, and how driven he is. One very telling story about Dak’s rookie year is how quickly he learned to take snaps under center, something he’d never done at Mississippi State. ...
He may not have better overall stats, or win as many games, as he did as a rookie, given the potential for much tougher competition. But he’s likely to be better.
For Zeke,
Another way Zeke could improve would be to be used more in the passing game.
With only 39 targets in his rookie year, Elliott caught 32 passes for 363 yards, an average of over 11 yards per catch.
This relative lack of use in the passing game is why some rate Arizona’s David Johnson as the more valuable running back, as Johnson was targeted an incredible 120 times, (up from 57 targets as a rookie) catching 80 balls for 879 yards. Of course, Zeke outgained Johnson by 392 yards on the ground.
If you combine Johnson’s rushing attempts and passing targets, Arizona attempted to get him the ball 413 times, and he gained 2118 yards from scrimmage, for an average of 5.12 yards per target. Zeke was much more efficient, gaining 1994 yards from scrimmage on 361 rushes and targets, for 5.52 yards per target.
But let’s look at this another way. If you’ve been following along this offseason, we’ve used Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) stat numerous times.
Approximate Value (AV) method is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1950).
We’re going to use it again here to compare all-time AV scores for rookie quarterbacks and running backs, with AV scores for those positions in year two.
Quarterbacks
Let’s look at the best AV scores for rookie quarterbacks.
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Draft
Tm
G
GS
Yrs
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Cam Newton
2011
22
1--1
CAR
16
16
1
1
0
19
2
2
Robert Griffin
2012
22
1--2
WAS
15
15
1
1
0
18
3
3
Dak Prescott
2016
23
4-135
DAL
16
16
1
1
0
16
4
4
Russell Wilson
2012
24
3--75
SEA
16
16
1
1
0
16
There have been only four rookie quarterbacks to score AVs of 16 or higher. Compare this with the number of quarterbacks who have attained this number in their second year in the NFL. It is more than double the number — 10.
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Draft
Tm
G
GS
Yrs
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Daunte Culpepper
2000
23
1--11
MIN
16
16
1
1
0
21
2
2
Dan Marino*
1984
23
1--27
MIA
16
16
1
1
1
21
3
3
Jeff Garcia
2000
30
SFO
16
16
1
1
0
20
4
4
Kurt Warner*
1999
28
STL
16
16
1
1
1
19
5
5
Peyton Manning
1999
23
1--1
IND
16
16
1
1
0
18
6
6
Carson Palmer
2005
26
1--1
CIN
16
16
1
1
0
17
7
7
Michael Vick
2002
22
1--1
ATL
15
15
1
1
0
17
8
8
Donovan McNabb
2000
24
1--2
PHI
16
16
1
1
0
16
9
9
Cam Newton
2012
23
1--1
CAR
16
16
1
0
0
16
10
10
Russell Wilson
2013
25
3--75
SEA
16
16
1
1
0
16
Moreover, two of the three quarterbacks on this list in their first year were on the list again in their second year — Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. The one who missed - Robert Griffen — suffered a major injury and played in a bit of a gimmick offense that caught the NFL by surprise his rookie season.
This suggests that second year quarterbacks have a somewhat better chance of scoring well than they did as rookie.
Running Backs
Here is the table for rookie running backs with AVs of 16 or higher. Seven running backs achieved that lofty goal their first year.
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Draft
Tm
G
GS
Yrs
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Edgerrin James
1999
21
1--4
IND
16
16
1
1
1
21
2
2
Marcus Allen*
1982
22
1--10
RAI
9
9
1
1
1
18
3
3
Gale Sayers*
1965
22
1--4
CHI
14
1
1
1
18
4
4
Tony Dorsett*
1977
23
1--2
DAL
14
4
1
0
0
16
5
5
Ezekiel Elliott
2016
21
1--4
DAL
15
15
1
1
1
16
6
6
Marshall Faulk*
1994
21
1--2
IND
16
16
1
1
0
16
7
7
Ricky Watters
1992
23
2--45
SFO
14
13
1
1
0
16
Now compare that to the totals for second year runners.
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Draft
Tm
G
GS
Yrs
PB
AP1
AV
1
1
Otis Armstrong
1974
24
1--9
DEN
14
14
1
1
1
22
2
2
Edgerrin James
2000
22
1--4
IND
16
16
1
1
0
21
3
3
Arian Foster
2010
24
HOU
16
13
1
1
1
20
4
4
Larry Brown
1970
23
8-191
WAS
13
13
1
1
1
19
5
5
Chris Johnson
2009
24
1--24
TEN
16
16
1
1
1
19
6
6
Lawrence McCutcheon
1973
23
3--70
RAM
12
12
1
1
0
19
7
7
Ron Johnson
1970
23
1--20
NYG
14
14
1
1
1
18
8
8
Ray Rice
2009
22
2--55
BAL
16
15
1
1
0
18
9
9
Le'Veon Bell
2014
22
2--48
PIT
16
16
1
1
1
17
10
10
Eric Dickerson*
1984
24
1--2
RAM
16
16
1
1
1
17
11
11
Tony Dorsett*
1978
24
1--2
DAL
16
15
1
1
0
17
12
12
Chuck Foreman
1974
24
1--12
MIN
13
13
1
1
0
17
13
13
Steve Owens
1971
24
1--19
DET
14
13
1
1
0
17
14
14
Barry Sanders*
1990
22
1--3
DET
16
16
1
1
1
17
15
15
Gale Sayers*
1966
23
1--4
CHI
14
1
1
1
17
16
16
Emmitt Smith*
1991
22
1--17
DAL
16
16
1
1
0
17
17
17
William Andrews
1980
25
3--79
ATL
16
16
1
1
0
16
18
18
Billy Cannon
1961
24
1--1
HOU
14
1
1
1
16
19
19
Terrell Davis*
1996
24
6-196
DEN
16
16
1
1
1
16
20
20
Mike Garrett
1967
23
2--18
KAN
14
1
1
1
16
21
21
Frank Gore
2006
23
3--65
SFO
16
16
1
1
0
16
22
22
Eddie Lacy
2014
23
2--61
GNB
16
16
1
0
0
16
23
23
Deuce McAllister
2002
24
1--23
NOR
15
15
1
1
0
16
24
24
Freeman McNeil
1982
23
1--3
NYJ
9
9
1
1
1
16
25
25
Clinton Portis
2003
22
2--51
DEN
13
13
1
1
0
16
26
26
Billy Sims
1981
26
1--1
DET
14
14
1
1
0
16
27
27
Thurman Thomas*
1989
23
2--40
BUF
16
16
1
1
0
16
Instead of seven running backs scoring 16 AV or higher, we have 27, although only three of the six who could repeat did so (Elliott hasn’t had his second season). The three who missed - Marshall Faulk, Ricky Watters, and Marcus Allen, all scored 13 or more AV in their second campaigns.
So, as a whole, quarterbacks and running backs tend to have higher success in their second seasons. It’s possible that an individual player might not, but even where there has been some slippage, it has been minor.
This bodes well for Dak and Zeke going into their second seasons.
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