jday
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But. What. If.
By themselves, those words do little. But combined together, they do much of the heavy-lifting for my overall optimism regarding the Dallas Cowboys. If you are familiar with my contributions, this is not a new offering. Much like my Ring Side Seats concept (which grants me the opportunity to give voice to my inner-optimist, pessimist and realist), it doesn’t foolishly ignore the reality of the Cowboys situation (they are good, but not great); it merely points out that with a few things going the Cowboys way, greatness is in fact well within reach.
After two weeks, I have sat and watched quite a bit of football…and not just the Cowboys. Aside from my love of the game itself, I watch because it allows me to keep both the Cowboys accomplishments and failures in perspective.
Consider:
The loss to the Panthers was ugly…no question. The Cowboys offense could not get out of their own way and on many drives against the Giants, that unpleasant trend continued. But then when you stop to consider all the games that transpired over that same weekend, very few teams looked great, even the Panthers themselves whose efforts still led to a win.
The win against the Giants this past weekend was ugly…admittedly made uglier by the almost-comeback the Giants engineered towards the end. But when you stop to consider that are young overall inexperienced defense looks to be in mid-season form and did so without 3 key starters (Xavier Woods, Randall Gregory, and David Irving) on Sunday, you should realize that what has looked great so far, (with a little luck on the injury front) could look even better down the stretch.
Therein is the epitome of the “But What If” concept. Let’s keep playing shall we?
But What If – David Irving comes back with his hair on fire?
Never mind the fact that at times when you look at his hairdo through squinty eyes it literally looks on fire, the guy possesses the ability to single-handedly take over games…and he has done this in the past with nowhere close to the same talent-pool he will be surrounded by in his first game back against the Texans. You could fill a defensive line rotation with the players new to the fray and making noise in the early going – Randall Gregory (had a sack against the Panthers), Antwaun Woods (had a sack against the Giants) and Dorance Armstrong (has done little in limited work, but did put a starting RT on skates in a goalline drill that led to the Giants settling for a field goal).
The fascinating and encouraging aspect of the Cowboys defensive performance this past Sunday was not simply due to the Cowboys getting to Eli 6 times but the fact that 6 different players were responsible for those sacks from 3 different levels (defensive line, linebackers, secondary) of the defense. When one guy is responsible for that pressure, you know who exactly the opposition is going to give “the treatment” next Sunday. But when the pressure is coming from every player on the line as well as in the secondary, the opposition has to hazard a guess at where the help should go (which will most likely be Demarcus Lawrence) and hope for the best regarding everyone else.
For Seattle this upcoming Sunday, that proposition should be disconcerting to say the least. But for the Texans in just two short weeks facing a Cowboys defense with pressure coming from everywhere, a defensive line rotation that is already 8 deep, and a David Irving with fresh legs….
Texans fans be like:
But What If – Dak Prescott is better than what we’ve seen so far in 2018?
We saw it in his rookie year and the first half of 2017: He was accurate more often than not, even hitting targets in stride occasionally allowing for the run after the catch. He consistently made good to great decisions with the football, understanding that it is better to throw the ball away and live to play another day then take the sack. And he decisively took whatever the defense gave him, be it deep, intermediate, short or with his legs. Following the infamous game against Atlanta last year, however, he has been indecisive, inaccurate, and when his pass is caught, much of the time it robs his target of their momentum, effectively shutting down any opportunity of a run after the catch.
Against the Giants, Dak’s former-self flashed. It was short. If you blinked, you probably missed it. But for a moment, Dak was back to being the Dak we all fell in love with. If we were to forget for a moment all that he has accomplished up to this point, and just considered his efforts based on what he did this past Sunday against the Giants, we might come away slightly discouraged overall. But, when you consider his play from Sunday against what he did in the first week against the Panthers, the difference is significant…in that light he appears to be ascending.
The problem is, our memory of 2016 and 2017 befuddle that view quite a bit; in year 3, after all, we want a QB who has figured things out, knows what is expected, and consistently meets his obligations as the quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. But with an offensive line that has been influx since the beginning of his second year, and a largely retooled weapons catalogue with new faces at both TE and WR, perhaps our expectations for 2018 thus far have been a bit too high.
Should this notable “Dak-scension” continue throughout the season (and there is no reason to expect he won’t get better with time), the offense just might catch up to the defense….and if that happens…
Cowboys fans will be like:
But What If – Butler is the better option for Dallas over Josh Gordon?
To begin the season, the question was: But What If…the Cowboys don’t really need a #1 receiver?
When you skip to the end of that debate, I suspect most football people would say, you don’t necessarily need a clear cut #1 receiver, but if you don’t have one, you do need a great to elite quarterback who by extension can make lesser receivers great, in the same vein that Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees tend to make their targets better than what they really are. And since at this point Dak is not on their level, most would agree the Cowboys need to add a #1 receiver and fast.
Exacerbating this issue was the recent acquisition of Josh Gordon by the Patriots for a 5th round pick. The local media and fans just about lost their mind that the Cowboys wouldn’t pull the trigger on such a cheap investment in a player with his elite ceiling.
Cowboys Fans be like:
The local and national Media be like:
Oppositions Fans be like:
I get it. I’m not blind. The Cowboys offense is clearly not firing on all cylinders thus far and for some, a #1 receiver would be just what the doctor ordered. But would it really? The cure for anything depends completely on the problem being properly diagnosed, and I don’t think the lack of #1 has been the predominant issue for the Cowboys offense. Paralysis by Over-Analysis on the part of one Dak Prescott has been the primary issue and I suspect that very well may be a symptom of his not establishing a good connection with all of his new targets yet due to an abbreviated preseason for the starting offense.
To hit a player in stride on a pass, for example, Dak has to know that players speed coming out of his break or streaking down the field. It can’t be something he has to think about…he just has to innately know it for each and every one of his targets. That’s not something you can develop overnight and therefore a new receiver (however talented he may be) may actually cause more issues for this offense than it would fix.
And that is why I suspect the Cowboys favored bringing back Brice Butler over losing a “2019 5th round pick” (assuming the asking price would be the same for the Cowboys, which is not necessarily true, mind you) in the acquisition of a player who faces the same challenges as Randy Gregory and is one poor decision away from a lifetime ban from the league. Dak has already established a repoirt with Brice; Butler already knows most (if not all) of the playbook...he is a plug’n’play receiver.
For now, fans are welcome to doubt the wisdom of this approach but once you see this…
…just know your doubts were misplaced.
But What If…the Cowboys are better than anyone presently is expecting?
That would be nothing new to the game of football…after all, it’s not how you start but how you finish that defines a team. The Cowboys are clearly not the best version of themselves now, on Offense, Defense or Special Teams. But given the overall youth of this team, while older teams may lose steam in December, this team will likely be hitting its stride. If the defense can at the very least maintain what they have demonstrated thus far and the offense can steadily improve at the rate they improved from the Panthers to the Giants, this team will be next to impossible to stop in December.
It is a simple formula, really. A great defense, supplemented by a good to great run game that allows your offense to control the clock and an efficient QB who won’t get you beat with untimely turnovers will win in this league more often than not….and especially in the playoffs and Super Bowl. That’s the winning formula and the Cowboys are as close as anyone presently to capturing and applying that principle.
Right now the Cinderella stories are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but we Cowboys fans have seen this story too many times before:
Pat Mahomes is lighting defenses up in the first two weeks, scoring 38 points against the Chargers and 42 points against the Steelers. Because they won in those efforts, no one really cares at this point in the season what the opposition did (Chargers – 28; Steelers – 37, allowing a grand total of 65 points in two weeks)…but, make no mistake, down the stretch that very fact will come back to haunt them. The brand of football they are currently playing is (simply put) not sustainable in December through February.
The Bucs? Same story; different team. They are 2 & 0 and their defense has allowed a combined 61 points thus far this year. Both the Chiefs and the Bucs for the moment are looking like locks for the playoffs, but considering both how they are achieving those points and the points they are allowing, they won’t last long.
Opposing defenses will eventually catch up to what it is they are doing and when that happens, both of their defenses will get exposed. As I said before, we Cowboys fans absolutely should know better because this exact phenomenon has played itself out for our viewing displeasure both in 2014 and 2016. The term “War Daddy” was first uttered by Jerry Jones in the early part of 2017. Why? Because at the end of the day, he realized our collective inability to get to Aaron Rodgers whilst he was hobbled and a statue in the pocket was the primary reason the Cowboys didn’t survive the Packers in the Playoffs…hence the Cowboys current defense today.
I make no promises. I offer no encouraging predictions. I merely know from years of watching and noting various trends in the game I love that as of right now the Cowboys are going about it the right way.
There are no guarantees when you bury and water a seed that a plant will grow. But you can hedge your bets in that proposition by using the soil mixed with good compose and climate that seed prefers to grow in. That is how I view the Cowboys team presently:
We want to grow wins, right?
Youthful team that will get better as the year progresses?
Check.
Good to great defense?
Check.
A good to great run game that will help you win games in winter?
It’s a work in progress, but check…with Zeke and that offensive line the potential is clearly off the charts!
A QB who protects the ball like it is his favorite son?
Check
Again, I offer no guarantees, but I do know beyond a shadow of a doubt that wins will grow in that soil and climate.
If the Cowboys can survive the growing pains of being a youthful team, avoid the injury bug all together, and simply keep getting better week after week in all 3 phases, there is absolutely no reasons they cannot…
Thoughts?
By themselves, those words do little. But combined together, they do much of the heavy-lifting for my overall optimism regarding the Dallas Cowboys. If you are familiar with my contributions, this is not a new offering. Much like my Ring Side Seats concept (which grants me the opportunity to give voice to my inner-optimist, pessimist and realist), it doesn’t foolishly ignore the reality of the Cowboys situation (they are good, but not great); it merely points out that with a few things going the Cowboys way, greatness is in fact well within reach.
After two weeks, I have sat and watched quite a bit of football…and not just the Cowboys. Aside from my love of the game itself, I watch because it allows me to keep both the Cowboys accomplishments and failures in perspective.
Consider:
The loss to the Panthers was ugly…no question. The Cowboys offense could not get out of their own way and on many drives against the Giants, that unpleasant trend continued. But then when you stop to consider all the games that transpired over that same weekend, very few teams looked great, even the Panthers themselves whose efforts still led to a win.
The win against the Giants this past weekend was ugly…admittedly made uglier by the almost-comeback the Giants engineered towards the end. But when you stop to consider that are young overall inexperienced defense looks to be in mid-season form and did so without 3 key starters (Xavier Woods, Randall Gregory, and David Irving) on Sunday, you should realize that what has looked great so far, (with a little luck on the injury front) could look even better down the stretch.
Therein is the epitome of the “But What If” concept. Let’s keep playing shall we?
But What If – David Irving comes back with his hair on fire?
Never mind the fact that at times when you look at his hairdo through squinty eyes it literally looks on fire, the guy possesses the ability to single-handedly take over games…and he has done this in the past with nowhere close to the same talent-pool he will be surrounded by in his first game back against the Texans. You could fill a defensive line rotation with the players new to the fray and making noise in the early going – Randall Gregory (had a sack against the Panthers), Antwaun Woods (had a sack against the Giants) and Dorance Armstrong (has done little in limited work, but did put a starting RT on skates in a goalline drill that led to the Giants settling for a field goal).
The fascinating and encouraging aspect of the Cowboys defensive performance this past Sunday was not simply due to the Cowboys getting to Eli 6 times but the fact that 6 different players were responsible for those sacks from 3 different levels (defensive line, linebackers, secondary) of the defense. When one guy is responsible for that pressure, you know who exactly the opposition is going to give “the treatment” next Sunday. But when the pressure is coming from every player on the line as well as in the secondary, the opposition has to hazard a guess at where the help should go (which will most likely be Demarcus Lawrence) and hope for the best regarding everyone else.
For Seattle this upcoming Sunday, that proposition should be disconcerting to say the least. But for the Texans in just two short weeks facing a Cowboys defense with pressure coming from everywhere, a defensive line rotation that is already 8 deep, and a David Irving with fresh legs….
Texans fans be like:
But What If – Dak Prescott is better than what we’ve seen so far in 2018?
We saw it in his rookie year and the first half of 2017: He was accurate more often than not, even hitting targets in stride occasionally allowing for the run after the catch. He consistently made good to great decisions with the football, understanding that it is better to throw the ball away and live to play another day then take the sack. And he decisively took whatever the defense gave him, be it deep, intermediate, short or with his legs. Following the infamous game against Atlanta last year, however, he has been indecisive, inaccurate, and when his pass is caught, much of the time it robs his target of their momentum, effectively shutting down any opportunity of a run after the catch.
Against the Giants, Dak’s former-self flashed. It was short. If you blinked, you probably missed it. But for a moment, Dak was back to being the Dak we all fell in love with. If we were to forget for a moment all that he has accomplished up to this point, and just considered his efforts based on what he did this past Sunday against the Giants, we might come away slightly discouraged overall. But, when you consider his play from Sunday against what he did in the first week against the Panthers, the difference is significant…in that light he appears to be ascending.
The problem is, our memory of 2016 and 2017 befuddle that view quite a bit; in year 3, after all, we want a QB who has figured things out, knows what is expected, and consistently meets his obligations as the quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. But with an offensive line that has been influx since the beginning of his second year, and a largely retooled weapons catalogue with new faces at both TE and WR, perhaps our expectations for 2018 thus far have been a bit too high.
Should this notable “Dak-scension” continue throughout the season (and there is no reason to expect he won’t get better with time), the offense just might catch up to the defense….and if that happens…
Cowboys fans will be like:
But What If – Butler is the better option for Dallas over Josh Gordon?
To begin the season, the question was: But What If…the Cowboys don’t really need a #1 receiver?
When you skip to the end of that debate, I suspect most football people would say, you don’t necessarily need a clear cut #1 receiver, but if you don’t have one, you do need a great to elite quarterback who by extension can make lesser receivers great, in the same vein that Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees tend to make their targets better than what they really are. And since at this point Dak is not on their level, most would agree the Cowboys need to add a #1 receiver and fast.
Exacerbating this issue was the recent acquisition of Josh Gordon by the Patriots for a 5th round pick. The local media and fans just about lost their mind that the Cowboys wouldn’t pull the trigger on such a cheap investment in a player with his elite ceiling.
Cowboys Fans be like:
The local and national Media be like:
Oppositions Fans be like:
I get it. I’m not blind. The Cowboys offense is clearly not firing on all cylinders thus far and for some, a #1 receiver would be just what the doctor ordered. But would it really? The cure for anything depends completely on the problem being properly diagnosed, and I don’t think the lack of #1 has been the predominant issue for the Cowboys offense. Paralysis by Over-Analysis on the part of one Dak Prescott has been the primary issue and I suspect that very well may be a symptom of his not establishing a good connection with all of his new targets yet due to an abbreviated preseason for the starting offense.
To hit a player in stride on a pass, for example, Dak has to know that players speed coming out of his break or streaking down the field. It can’t be something he has to think about…he just has to innately know it for each and every one of his targets. That’s not something you can develop overnight and therefore a new receiver (however talented he may be) may actually cause more issues for this offense than it would fix.
And that is why I suspect the Cowboys favored bringing back Brice Butler over losing a “2019 5th round pick” (assuming the asking price would be the same for the Cowboys, which is not necessarily true, mind you) in the acquisition of a player who faces the same challenges as Randy Gregory and is one poor decision away from a lifetime ban from the league. Dak has already established a repoirt with Brice; Butler already knows most (if not all) of the playbook...he is a plug’n’play receiver.
For now, fans are welcome to doubt the wisdom of this approach but once you see this…
…just know your doubts were misplaced.
But What If…the Cowboys are better than anyone presently is expecting?
That would be nothing new to the game of football…after all, it’s not how you start but how you finish that defines a team. The Cowboys are clearly not the best version of themselves now, on Offense, Defense or Special Teams. But given the overall youth of this team, while older teams may lose steam in December, this team will likely be hitting its stride. If the defense can at the very least maintain what they have demonstrated thus far and the offense can steadily improve at the rate they improved from the Panthers to the Giants, this team will be next to impossible to stop in December.
It is a simple formula, really. A great defense, supplemented by a good to great run game that allows your offense to control the clock and an efficient QB who won’t get you beat with untimely turnovers will win in this league more often than not….and especially in the playoffs and Super Bowl. That’s the winning formula and the Cowboys are as close as anyone presently to capturing and applying that principle.
Right now the Cinderella stories are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but we Cowboys fans have seen this story too many times before:
Pat Mahomes is lighting defenses up in the first two weeks, scoring 38 points against the Chargers and 42 points against the Steelers. Because they won in those efforts, no one really cares at this point in the season what the opposition did (Chargers – 28; Steelers – 37, allowing a grand total of 65 points in two weeks)…but, make no mistake, down the stretch that very fact will come back to haunt them. The brand of football they are currently playing is (simply put) not sustainable in December through February.
The Bucs? Same story; different team. They are 2 & 0 and their defense has allowed a combined 61 points thus far this year. Both the Chiefs and the Bucs for the moment are looking like locks for the playoffs, but considering both how they are achieving those points and the points they are allowing, they won’t last long.
Opposing defenses will eventually catch up to what it is they are doing and when that happens, both of their defenses will get exposed. As I said before, we Cowboys fans absolutely should know better because this exact phenomenon has played itself out for our viewing displeasure both in 2014 and 2016. The term “War Daddy” was first uttered by Jerry Jones in the early part of 2017. Why? Because at the end of the day, he realized our collective inability to get to Aaron Rodgers whilst he was hobbled and a statue in the pocket was the primary reason the Cowboys didn’t survive the Packers in the Playoffs…hence the Cowboys current defense today.
I make no promises. I offer no encouraging predictions. I merely know from years of watching and noting various trends in the game I love that as of right now the Cowboys are going about it the right way.
There are no guarantees when you bury and water a seed that a plant will grow. But you can hedge your bets in that proposition by using the soil mixed with good compose and climate that seed prefers to grow in. That is how I view the Cowboys team presently:
We want to grow wins, right?
Youthful team that will get better as the year progresses?
Check.
Good to great defense?
Check.
A good to great run game that will help you win games in winter?
It’s a work in progress, but check…with Zeke and that offensive line the potential is clearly off the charts!
A QB who protects the ball like it is his favorite son?
Check
Again, I offer no guarantees, but I do know beyond a shadow of a doubt that wins will grow in that soil and climate.
If the Cowboys can survive the growing pains of being a youthful team, avoid the injury bug all together, and simply keep getting better week after week in all 3 phases, there is absolutely no reasons they cannot…
Thoughts?
