Derinyar
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Murray is having a great season. Some of that is him. Some of that is the line. Some of that is the passing game. Basically you can say the offense is having a great year and be 100% correct.
The issue when talking about resigning Murray isn't about what he's done this year, its about what do you think he's going to do going forward. First assumption that I think you have to make is this, he's not going to reproduce this season again in his career. Very few RB have produced multiple seasons with this many yards. Those are guys like Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Adrian Peterson, and Walter Payton. I hope we don't have to argue that there's very little chance that Murray is in that class of RB talent. If you think he is there's not much conversation to be had on the topic. You want to pay the man 8-10 million a year to make sure he doesn't ever go anywhere.
So assuming that isn't true the big question is what is the baseline that you would expect Murray to actually move based around. And that's where the problems come in. I think many are thinking Murray is a true talent 1500 yard back. I'd argue that his more likely level is somewhere around 1200-1300 yards as a place to start adjusting from. I think you have to adjust it downward, because even if they resign Murray I think they have to give the backup more touches.
Murray did one major thing that he's never done before this year, he stayed healthy for 16 games. I don't think we can expect that again. Most players don't start staying healthier as they age, especially running backs. So if you look at him as more likely to be a 14 game player you have to go down some from the 1200 yard range. So that would make it more like 1100 yards. That's in the range of what he's done before. I don't think that the 1100-1200 yard DeMarco Murray is a top 5 RB. I think he's a top ten type but that's more like a 4-5 million dollar player as opposed to a 7-8 million dollar player. Those extra millions can do a lot for a team. That's where I basically look at it. If you really think Murray is a 1300+ yard back yearly from here for the life of a contract I think you can give him that 7-8. I just don't see it as likely due to what he's done before and how I imagine they will have to use him if they do sign him long term. You just can't keep handing a RB the ball that many times and expect him to last any reasonable amount of time, and if Murray gets a 15-20 million signing bonus you have to have him not a broken down pile of scrap for at least 2-3 years before you can cut him.
The issue when talking about resigning Murray isn't about what he's done this year, its about what do you think he's going to do going forward. First assumption that I think you have to make is this, he's not going to reproduce this season again in his career. Very few RB have produced multiple seasons with this many yards. Those are guys like Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Adrian Peterson, and Walter Payton. I hope we don't have to argue that there's very little chance that Murray is in that class of RB talent. If you think he is there's not much conversation to be had on the topic. You want to pay the man 8-10 million a year to make sure he doesn't ever go anywhere.
So assuming that isn't true the big question is what is the baseline that you would expect Murray to actually move based around. And that's where the problems come in. I think many are thinking Murray is a true talent 1500 yard back. I'd argue that his more likely level is somewhere around 1200-1300 yards as a place to start adjusting from. I think you have to adjust it downward, because even if they resign Murray I think they have to give the backup more touches.
Murray did one major thing that he's never done before this year, he stayed healthy for 16 games. I don't think we can expect that again. Most players don't start staying healthier as they age, especially running backs. So if you look at him as more likely to be a 14 game player you have to go down some from the 1200 yard range. So that would make it more like 1100 yards. That's in the range of what he's done before. I don't think that the 1100-1200 yard DeMarco Murray is a top 5 RB. I think he's a top ten type but that's more like a 4-5 million dollar player as opposed to a 7-8 million dollar player. Those extra millions can do a lot for a team. That's where I basically look at it. If you really think Murray is a 1300+ yard back yearly from here for the life of a contract I think you can give him that 7-8. I just don't see it as likely due to what he's done before and how I imagine they will have to use him if they do sign him long term. You just can't keep handing a RB the ball that many times and expect him to last any reasonable amount of time, and if Murray gets a 15-20 million signing bonus you have to have him not a broken down pile of scrap for at least 2-3 years before you can cut him.
