CB Draft Stats / Draft thoughts

[masomenos]

This is going to be pretty much exactly like the WR Draft Stats thread. It's obvious that the Cowboys need to start thinking about adding depth at CB. With Newman, Henry and Glenn all 29 or older and very little in terms of depth behind them, CB could be taken very early in this years draft. I've shown that if you want a quality LT or a quality starting WR then you're hard pressed to find one outside of the first round. However the statistics are a little bit different for CBs. While I assume that the higher percentages will always favor earlier rounds, there was an interesting difference with the CB rankings.

Rd 1: 39%
Rd 2: 28%
Rd 3: 9%
Rd 4: 11%
Rd 5: 0%
Rd 6: 3%
Rd 7: 2%
UFA: 8%

The 39% in the first round is the lowest percentage of LT and CB and WR, with only RT being having a lower percentage. More interesting than that however is the difference in percentage between the 1st and 2nd round:

WR: Rd 1 41% - Rd 2 20% = 21% difference
LT: Rd 1 50% - Rd 2 19% = 31% difference
CB: Rd 1 39% - Rd 2 28% = 11% difference

This is significant because it shows that waiting to draft a CB to round to and expecting them to pan out carries a much lower risk rate than the other positions in comparison to the risk of drafting a player in the first round. This is important because it shows that your odds of finding a starting CB in Rd 2 is much the same as finding a starting quality CB in Rd 1. If the risk is almost identical then why reach in the first round for what you almost just as likely have in the second.

It's also interesting to note that CBs are among one of the most selected positions in the first round and yet they have a very low success rate. This shows a high bust potential for drafting CBs in round 1. With all of this in mind, my stance is that Dallas shouldn't draft a CB in round 1 if they have a WR or OT that is high on their board and available. Then what should you draft in round 1? Well, as I said in previous posts, 50% of LTs are found in Rd 1 and 41% of WRs are found in Round 1, while 13% of both positions are found in the third round.

The 9% difference is fairly small so I imagine Dallas would look at which position they'd most likely be able to fill in Rd 3. There are quality LT prospects and quality WRs who should be available in the third round but the best value seems to be with a guy like OT Alan Barbre in the third, which would leave WR for the 1st round and CB for the second. Now I know this isn't necesarrily Dallas' draft plan but I've only researched a few positions so I'm going with the information I have at this point and if I were running the war room I would probably go WR, CB and then LT on the first day.

 

[Cornish83]

so WR 1st round and CB 2nd round?

 

[masomenos]

so WR 1st round and CB 2nd round?

In short

 

[jobberone]

Interesting. But you're still most likely to draft a starter in the first two rounds with a 40% chance in the first and a 30% chance in the second. That still leaves a 30+ per cent chance of getting one in the later rounds. Even then there is only a 10% chance of getting one outside of day one.

This is what makes it imperative to draft well in the first two rounds. And then draft well enough to find that other 30% before someone else does.

 

[dasander]

2 words in regard to the value of CB's taken in the 2nd. round: Dwayne Goodrich.

Just joking!
No actually I think your right about CB's in the 2nd round. For example Rashead Mathis, Shawntae Spencer, Sheldon Brown, and Charles Tillman are good values found in the 2nd round

 

[Achozen]

so WR 1st round and CB 2nd round?

Sounds good to me.

 

[sago1]

Interesting stats but it will still all depend on whose available when it's our turn--particularly in the first round. All we can hope is that a player(s) we highly value is still on the board at #22--or if we luck out & there several players who slip which increases the value of our pick and lands us a 3rd rounder--but still allows us to grab a quality needed player at WR or CB.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Interesting stats but it will still all depend on whose available when it's our turn--particularly in the first round.

Exactly. I don't think you can look at percentages of current starters in a particular round and use that to determine what position you'll take in each round. For one, the past trends may not be predictive of the future. For another, you don't know that, in this case, a WR will be the best player available when we pick.

 

[ZeroClub]

It is obvious that you've done some interesting work here. Thanks for posting it.

Here's what I'm a little curious about. You've analysed LTs and RTs as separate groups. I understand why it would be good to look at them separately (as opposed to combining them into a single OT group).

But I don't think your analyses differentiate each team's top CB (the guy they trust the most / don't have to protect as much / who gives up the fewest TDs per game) from their "second CB" (the guy who is more likely to be protected).

I know it is more labor intensive and subjective to designate a "top" and "second CB," but it may make a difference.

I'd predict that team's top CBs will be closer to the characteristics of your LTs (e.g., "first round percentage" and "difference in percentage between 1st and 3nd round") than your current "all starting CBs" group.

I'd also guess that team's second CBs are, in some regards, more similar to your RTs.

I think what your stats are saying now is that it is easier to find a starting CB outside of the first round than it is to find a starting LT. But how easy is it to find a top CB outside of the 1st round?

 

[masomenos]

It is obvious that you've done some interesting work here. Thanks for posting it.

Here's what I'm a little curious about. You've analysed LTs and RTs as separate groups. I understand why it would be good to look at them separately (as opposed to combining them into a single OT group).

But I don't think your analyses differentiate each team's top CB (the guy they trust the most / don't have to protect as much / who gives up the fewest TDs per game) from their "second CB" (the guy who is more likely to be protected).

I know it is more labor intensive and subjective to designate a "top" and "second CB," but it may make a difference.

I'd predict that team's top CBs will be closer to the characteristics of your LTs (e.g., "first round percentage" and "difference in percentage between 1st and 3nd round") than your current "all starting CBs" group.

I'd also guess that team's second CBs are, in some regards, more similar to your RTs.

I think what your stats are saying now is that it is easier to find a starting CB outside of the first round than it is to find a starting LT. But how easy is it to find a top CB outside of the 1st round?

You know, I thought about that actually. I wasn't sure if I'd be able to find anything that definitively said who was the #1 and who was the #2, but I'll go through and look at it based on who I think is the #1 and who is the #2. Because like you said, I imagine it would fall more in line with the other positions...I guess I could have done it with #1 and #2 WRs too, it really shouldn't be too hard to do.

 

[masomenos]

Here's the stats on #1 and #2 CBs

#1 CB
Rd 1 - 69%
Rd 2 - 19%
Rd 3 - 3%
Rd 4 - 6%
Rd 5 - 0%
Rd 6 - 0%
Rd 7 - 0%
UFA - 3%

#2 CB
Rd 1 - 9%
Rd 2 - 38%
Rd 3 - 16%
Rd 4 - 16%
Rd 5 - 0%
Rd 6 - 6%
Rd 7 - 3%
UFA - 13%

Only 3 #2 CBs were drafted in the first round.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Here's the stats on #1 and #2 CBs

#1 CB
Rd 1 - 69%
Rd 2 - 19%
Rd 3 - 3%
Rd 4 - 6%
Rd 5 - 0%
Rd 6 - 0%
Rd 7 - 0%
UFA - 3%

#2 CB
Rd 1 - 9%
Rd 2 - 38%
Rd 3 - 16%
Rd 4 - 16%
Rd 5 - 0%
Rd 6 - 6%
Rd 7 - 3%
UFA - 13%

Only 3 #2 CBs were drafted in the first round.

What's interesting here is that 22% of the #2 CB's come after the 5th round.

I'm sure our high round draft snobs will pooh-pooh those numbers.

 

[theogt]

What's interesting here is that 22% of the #2 CB's come after the 5th round.

I'm sure our high round draft snobs will pooh-pooh those numbers.

Usama Young, 5th round.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Usama Young, 5th round.

Yeah, I would be on board with this guy. He seems to have terrific speed. Ourlads has him as the 18th ranked corner... Kiper isn't too big on him-- 36th ranked corner.

 

[ZeroClub]

Here's the stats on #1 and #2 CBs

#1 CB
Rd 1 - 69%
Rd 2 - 19%
Rd 3 - 3%
Rd 4 - 6%
Rd 5 - 0%
Rd 6 - 0%
Rd 7 - 0%
UFA - 3%

#2 CB
Rd 1 - 9%
Rd 2 - 38%
Rd 3 - 16%
Rd 4 - 16%
Rd 5 - 0%
Rd 6 - 6%
Rd 7 - 3%
UFA - 13%

Only 3 #2 CBs were drafted in the first round.

That's impressive work. Interesting too. Thanks for posting it.

I know that some will interpret this to mean that your second CB doesn't have to be a 1st rounder. But I'd just remind those folks that just because a guy starts as your second CB, it doesn't mean you are happy with his performance (see Pete Hunter and Mario Edwards).

My initial impression of your data is that if you want to obtain a high quality CB, you ought to count on spending a 1st round draft choice on him. In my book, 2 high quality corners are better than one. I'm not sure it is a bad idea for the Cowboys to go CB in Round 1, again. I guess the other part of the consideration would involve bust rate.

So what do you make of these numbers?

 

[masomenos]

Usama Young, 5th round.

I dunno, Young may be gone in the 4th. But if he's there in the 5th for us then definitely we should jump all over him. Even if he doesn't develop into a #2 CB I think he'd have the physical tools to be a #3 nickel CB and take over for Aaron Glenn.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Usama Young, 5th round.

 

[theogt]

I dunno, Young may be gone in the 4th. But if he's there in the 5th for us then definitely we should jump all over him. Even if he doesn't develop into a #2 CB I think he'd have the physical tools to be a #3 nickel CB and take over for Aaron Glenn.

I dunno. The guy went from undrafted to 4th in a matter of weeks? I think it's possible, but I don't see him rising that quickly any time soon. I will say that Todd McShay's recent mock had him in the 3rd round. I just don't think that's likely. He'll go around the 5th, IMO.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

He'll go around the 5th, IMO.

he should go in the 5th, he might go higher though, so I think it's safe to project him there

 

[ZeroClub]

I go with the kid from Arkansas if he's available in Round 1. Give me a CB with all of the measurables. You can't teach speed.

Edit: I just got a look at Usama Young's numbers. He doesn't need to get any faster.