CFP thread

[Robbieac]

It is a very common conundrum. Alabama had better wins than any Notre Dame had but they also had worse losses than any Notre Dame had. We've seen it many times before and we will see it many times again.

I completely agree.
Notre Dame “might” have been the better team but we will never know for sure. When you lose to the 2 decent teams on your schedule and all of your wins are against complete nobodies…..it leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[atlantacowboy]

I don't hate a single college team. It would cloud my judgement if I did.

So you agree with what I said but, for some reason, that made me a "hater"..... ohhhhhh kayyyyyyyy..........

It is a very common conundrum. Alabama had better wins than any Notre Dame had but they also had worse losses than any Notre Dame had. We've seen it many times before and we will see it many times again.

There are a few posters in this thread that flat out hate Alabama and you can't have a rationale conversation with them. The CFP committeee has always used the "eyeball test" for the final poll. They looked at NDs body of work and Alabama's and judged Alabama to be the better team. It was a judgement call for sure. I would have been fine if they had put ND in there over Alabama, but I understand that neither team was going to win the national title. So, really this is just about opportunity to get into the playoff, and there's always going to be a discussion for that last spot no matter how many teams.

My issue is that this "controversy" has lead to the CFP caving to ND's public tantrum. Now, ND has an auto-bid if they finish inside the top 12. Next year, they have eight 8 loss teams on their schedule. They have 1 potentially tough game against Miami but who knows what that team will be next year. Miami hasn't been consistent at all this century. The rest are cupcakes.

SOS has to count for a huge part of the CFP poll bc the SEC and Big 10 are brutal minefields to navigate. Meanwhile ND, can theoretically schedule 12 cupcakes and make the playoff. Next years schedule comes pretty close.

 

[gtb1943]

Oh I see. You are one of the Alabama haters. I agree. I don't think they belonged over ND, but the win over UGA was more impressive than anything ND did this year and they had a tougher schedule. But once they won a road playoff game in Norman,OK, the debate was over. They belonged. The teams that didn't belong were Tulane and JMU. Those are the schools that took CFP spots for arcane nonsensical reasons.

typical SEC bot response
DOES NOT MATTER HOW MANY TIMES THEY GET HUMILIATED
DOES NOT MATTER HOW MANY TIMES THEY LOOKED BAD EVEN IN WINS
it only matters that they won in Norman OK

 

[gtb1943]

I completely agree.
Notre Dame “might” have been the better team but we will never know for sure. When you lose to the 2 decent teams on your schedule and all of your wins are against complete nobodies…..it leaves a lot to be desired.

and when you get humiliated twice is matters not at all to SEC BOTS

 

[Ghost12]

There are a few posters in this thread that flat out hate Alabama and you can't have a rationale conversation with them. The CFP committeee has always used the "eyeball test" for the final poll.

Not true. If we include the CFP when it was 4 teams, the committee followed a very set, very predictable series of rules regarding whom they chose the vast majority of the time.

They looked at NDs body of work and Alabama's and judged Alabama to be the better team. It was a judgement call for sure.

I agree, and large part of that was the so-called “gauntlet” which is an SEC schedule.

Then the postseason came and SEC teams got whipped left and right. They were 1-8 OOC against the P4. Not a single SEC team advanced in the playoffs unless they were playing the G5 or another SEC team.

All of a sudden Alabama’s regular season “gauntlet” amounted to a grand total of 3 ranked opponents in 12 games, one of which they lost. That’s the same number of ranked games ND played (and I didn’t see any FCS teams on ND’s schedule like Alabama had).

SOS has to count for a huge part of the CFP poll bc the SEC and Big 10 are brutal minefields to navigate.

No, they really aren’t - at least not for most teams. If we look at final rankings (and I am only talking about the regular season here):

Oregon played 3 ranked teams last year.
Ohio State played 2 ranked conference opponents plus a third OOC opponent.
Indiana played a grand total of 2 ranked opponents.
UGA played 3
Alabama played 3
Texas A&M played one ranked conference opponent (a game they lost) plus 1 ranked OOC opponent.
Ole Miss played 2 ranked opponents.

None of the above is a “brutal minefield”.

Meanwhile ND, can theoretically schedule 12 cupcakes and make the playoff.

You talk about what could “theoretically” happen. Meanwhile, in the real world, Notre Dame has recently played or has upcoming H-&-H’s with Georgia, Ohio state, A&M, Texas, Alabama, BYU, Indiana, Michigan.

That doesn’t even count the games regularly scheduled by the ACC against Miami, FSU, SMU and the 13 year series against Clemson.

 

[gtb1943]

Not true. If we include the CFP when it was 4 teams, the committee followed a very set, very predictable series of rules regarding whom they chose the vast majority of the time.

I agree, and large part of that was the so-called “gauntlet” which is an SEC schedule.

Then the postseason came and SEC teams got whipped left and right. They were 1-8 OOC against the P4. Not a single SEC team advanced in the playoffs unless they were playing the G5 or another SEC team.

All of a sudden Alabama’s regular season “gauntlet” amounted to a grand total of 3 ranked opponents in 12 games, one of which they lost. That’s the same number of ranked games ND played (and I didn’t see any FCS teams on ND’s schedule like Alabama had).

No, they really aren’t - at least not for most teams. If we look at final rankings (and I am only talking about the regular season here):

Oregon played 3 ranked teams last year.
Ohio State played 2 ranked conference opponents plus a third OOC opponent.
Indiana played a grand total of 2 ranked opponents.
UGA played 3
Texas A&M played one ranked conference opponent (a game they lost) plus 1 ranked OOC opponent.
Ole Miss played 2 ranked opponents.

None of the above is a “brutal minefield”.

You talk about what could “theoretically” happen. Meanwhile, in the real world, Notre Dame has recently played or has upcoming H-&-H’s with Georgia, Ohio state, A&M, Texas, Alabama, BYU, Indiana, Michigan.

That doesn’t even count the games regularly scheduled by the ACC against Miami, FSU, SMU and the 13 year series against Clemson.

Alabama had TWO Real good victories against GA and OK
and THREE REAL BAD defeats to GA, IND and FSU
love how the SEC BOTS talk so much about their wins and absolute silence about their defeats

 

[atlantacowboy]

Not true. If we include the CFP when it was 4 teams, the committee followed a very set, very predictable series of rules regarding whom they chose the vast majority of the time.

I agree, and large part of that was the so-called “gauntlet” which is an SEC schedule.

Then the postseason came and SEC teams got whipped left and right. They were 1-8 OOC against the P4. Not a single SEC team advanced in the playoffs unless they were playing the G5 or another SEC team.

All of a sudden Alabama’s regular season “gauntlet” amounted to a grand total of 3 ranked opponents in 12 games, one of which they lost. That’s the same number of ranked games ND played (and I didn’t see any FCS teams on ND’s schedule like Alabama had).

No, they really aren’t - at least not for most teams. If we look at final rankings (and I am only talking about the regular season here):

Oregon played 3 ranked teams last year.
Ohio State played 2 ranked conference opponents plus a third OOC opponent.
Indiana played a grand total of 2 ranked opponents.
UGA played 3
Alabama played 3
Texas A&M played one ranked conference opponent (a game they lost) plus 1 ranked OOC opponent.
Ole Miss played 2 ranked opponents.

None of the above is a “brutal minefield”.

You talk about what could “theoretically” happen. Meanwhile, in the real world, Notre Dame has recently played or has upcoming H-&-H’s with Georgia, Ohio state, A&M, Texas, Alabama, BYU, Indiana, Michigan.

That doesn’t even count the games regularly scheduled by the ACC against Miami, FSU, SMU and the 13 year series against Clemson.

Ok. You and I have very different opinions. You are far from an "objective observer". lol We aren't going to agree.

 

[Ghost12]

Ok. You and I have very different opinions. You are far from an "objective observer". lol We aren't going to agree.

We do have different opinions but 99% of my post above is simply statements of fact. You say the Big 10 is a “brutal minefield”. That’s an opinion. I respond by saying IU played 2 ranked teams all season. That’s a fact.

Although I did accidentally make one factual error I would like to please correct:

All of a sudden Alabama’s regular season “gauntlet” amounted to a grand total of 3 ranked opponents in 12 games, one of which they lost. That’s the same number of ranked games ND played (and I didn’t see any FCS teams on ND’s schedule like Alabama had).

I apologize for the error in the above statement. Notre Dame actually played 4, not 3, teams who finished ranked.

IOW, for all the whining and complaining about ND’s schedule, they played more ranked opponents than every single playoff team except ONE, which is Oklahoma (who ties ND at 4).

That’s a fact.

 

[atlantacowboy]

We do have different opinions but 99% of my post above is simply statements of fact. Although I did make one factual error I would like to please correct:


I apologize for the error in the above statement. Notre Dame actually played 4, not 3, teams who finished ranked.

IOW, for all the whining and complaining about ND’s schedule, they played more ranked opponents than every single playoff team except ONE, which is Oklahoma (who ties ND at 4).

When you say things like the SEC and Big 10 are not minefields , that is not a fact. Last I checked 7 of the top 15 in the final AP poll were SEC teams and this was a down year for the conference. What exactly would qualify as a minefield? The conference had 7-8 teams ranked every week. Even the games against non-ranked teams like Florida and LSU are tough. Who you taking on an any given Saturday LSU/Florida or Navy? Tulane? JMU? The talent differential is usually overwhelming even when the records say otherwise which is why quality wins means more than record.

The big 10 has won 3 titles in a row and PSU and Oregon are not among them. Thats the best conference right now. Winning these conferences or even getting through them with 3 losses is more impressive than anything ND did. CFP agrees. It's always been an eyeball test and SOS has always played a big role.

ND lost 2 of those 4 games against ranked teams and the Navy win ........ seriously? I see they snuck into the final poll thanks to their triumph in the Liberty Bowl. lol. But that's not a legit top 25 program. Next year, which is mostly what I was talking about anyway, is absurd. ND dropped USC and play 8 teams who lost 8 games last year. In all likelihood, their SOS is going to suck next year too, but they will probably go undefeated against that schedule.

In regard to your argument about NDs playing 4 ranked teams being among the best schedules. Thats laughable. That is pure garbage bc you are using the final poll to make that determination. What actually matters is the ranking at the time of the game. If your argument had any weight, we would see their SOS being higher. So, really they lost to 2 out of the 3 ranked teams they played. Don't give me the Navy garbage. Not buying it.

 

[DFWJC]

nm...looking at 26

 

[Ghost12]

When you say things like the SEC and Big 10 are not minefields , that is not a fact.

You're right, but I followed up that 1 opinion with 7 statements of fact:

Oregon played 3 ranked teams last year.
Ohio State played 2 ranked conference opponents plus a third OOC opponent.
Indiana played a grand total of 2 ranked opponents.
UGA played 3
Alabama played 3
Texas A&M played one ranked conference opponent (a game they lost) plus 1 ranked OOC opponent.
Ole Miss played 2 ranked opponents.

So tell us.... which one of those teams faced a "minefield"?

Last I checked 7 of the top 15 in the final AP poll were SEC teams and this was a down year for the conference. What exactly would qualify as a minefield?

Since you asked the question, I would say you have to play at least 4 ranked teams to say your schedule was a minefield. Otherwise all you have to do is beat the unranked teams, go 1-2 against the ranked ones, and you're 10-2 and in the playoff discussion.

Texas dealt with a minefield this season. Oklahoma arguably did too. But none of the 11 other playoff teams did. And yes, I quantify based on what a team is currently ranked.

No one in January is impressed with Ole Miss for beating #4 LSU.
No one in January is impressed with Oregon beating #3 Penn State.
No one in January is impressed with Virginia for beating #8 Florida State.

The conference had 7-8 teams ranked every week. Even the games against non-ranked teams like Florida and LSU are tough.

That's just an opinion. Florida lost to South Florida, so I cannot say I subscribe to the same belief.

Who you taking on an any given Saturday LSU/Florida or Navy? Tulane? JMU?

I am not sure what you mean by "any given Saturday". I am talking about the 2025 season here and in 2025, Navy beat South Florida who beat Florida. Tulane beat Memphis who beat South Florida. So I have no idea why you seem to think Navy and Tulane beating Florida is so out of the realm of possibility.

If you asked me about 2024 or 2026 my answer might change. But in 2025, Navy and Tulane were better than LSU and Florida.

The big 10 has won 3 titles in a row and PSU and Oregon are not among them. Thats the best conference right now. Winning these conferences or even getting through them with 3 losses is more impressive than anything ND did.

That is just your opinion. But fact is none of the Big 10's playoff teams played more than 3 ranked games this season. Indiana could have lost all their ranked games and still gone 10-2.

ND lost 2 of those 4 games against ranked teams and the Navy win ........ seriously? I see they snuck into the final poll thanks to their triumph in the Liberty Bowl. lol. But that's not a legit top 25 program.

They were a legit top 25 team in the year 2025. They didn't "sneak into the final poll"; they were ranked for 2 consecutive weeks prior to the final poll.

It's kinda funny how you use the AP poll when it suits you but completely disregard the AP poll when it doesn't.

Next year, which is mostly what I was talking about anyway, is absurd. ND dropped USC and play 8 teams who lost 8 games last year.

Correction: USC dropped Notre Dame. And then Notre Dame replaced them with an even better team.

The ACC controls half of ND's schedule and sorry not sorry, but it isn't Notre Dame's fault the ACC sucks.

In regard to your argument about NDs playing 4 ranked teams being among the best schedules.

I never said that and I'll thank you not to use a strawman to put words in mouth.

What I said - and is factually accurate - is that Notre Dame played more (currently) ranked teams than every single playoff team except OU, with whom they tied.

Thats laughable. That is pure garbage bc you are using the final poll to make that determination. What actually matters is the ranking at the time of the game.

Talk about laughable!! The ranking at the time of the game is nowhere near as significant as the ranking today. When you look at a team's SOS you don't cut off what their opponents did after the game was played.

Like I wrote above, no one today looks at Ole Miss beating LSU as a marquee victory where they really beat the #4 team in the nation.

 

[jterrell]

They said that about Duke, but maybe with the 9 game schedule, Miami would've won the tie-breaker over Duke to play in the ACC Title game.
My guess is they would have, as it was such a thin margin

Plus, next year, the ACC will have ranking as a tie-breaker, so Duke would've been out by that alone.

ND automatically getting in if they are 12th seems arbitrary, but whatever.

I'm pissed at the Big Ten for not being willing, like everyone else, to go to 16 teams without the guarantee of 24 teams in 3 years. They probably would've gotten their 24 tewam wish anyway.

24 kills conf champ games so ESPN doesn't want that as they own SEC CG with high ratings at great price.
Fox wants 24 so the CFP opens up to new TV partners; i.e. them.

Staying at 12 with a 1-7 Bye week record and no home games for top seeds is just purely stupid.

 

[atlantacowboy]

You're right, but I followed up that 1 opinion with 7 statements of fact:

Oregon played 3 ranked teams last year.
Ohio State played 2 ranked conference opponents plus a third OOC opponent.
Indiana played a grand total of 2 ranked opponents.
UGA played 3
Alabama played 3
Texas A&M played one ranked conference opponent (a game they lost) plus 1 ranked OOC opponent.
Ole Miss played 2 ranked opponents.

So tell us.... which one of those teams faced a "minefield"?

Since you asked the question, I would say you have to play at least 4 ranked teams to say your schedule was a minefield. Otherwise all you have to do is beat the unranked teams, go 1-2 against the ranked ones, and you're 10-2 and in the playoff discussion.

Texas dealt with a minefield this season. Oklahoma arguably did too. But none of the 11 other playoff teams did. And yes, I quantify based on what a team is currently ranked.

No one in January is impressed with Ole Miss for beating #4 LSU.
No one in January is impressed with Oregon beating #3 Penn State.
No one in January is impressed with Virginia for beating #8 Florida State.

That's just an opinion. Florida lost to South Florida, so I cannot say I subscribe to the same belief.

I am not sure what you mean by "any given Saturday". I am talking about the 2025 season here and in 2025, Navy beat South Florida who beat Florida. Tulane beat Memphis who beat South Florida. So I have no idea why you seem to think Navy and Tulane beating Florida is so out of the realm of possibility.

If you asked me about 2024 or 2026 my answer might change. But in 2025, Navy and Tulane were better than LSU and Florida.

That is just your opinion. But fact is none of the Big 10's playoff teams played more than 3 ranked games this season. Indiana could have lost all their ranked games and still gone 10-2.

They were a legit top 25 team in the year 2025. They didn't "sneak into the final poll"; they were ranked for 2 consecutive weeks prior to the final poll.

It's kinda funny how you use the AP poll when it suits you but completely disregard the AP poll when it doesn't.

Correction: USC dropped Notre Dame. And then Notre Dame replaced them with an even better team.

The ACC controls half of ND's schedule and sorry not sorry, but it isn't Notre Dame's fault the ACC sucks.

I never said that and I'll thank you not to use a strawman to put words in mouth.

What I said - and is factually accurate - is that Notre Dame played more (currently) ranked teams than every single playoff team except OU, with whom they tied.

Talk about laughable!! The ranking at the time of the game is nowhere near as significant as the ranking today. When you look at a team's SOS you don't cut off what their opponents did after the game was played.

Like I wrote above, no one today looks at Ole Miss beating LSU as a marquee victory where they really beat the #4 team in the nation.

I used the Florida vs Navy or Tulane as a hypothetical to make the point that even when they are bad, would you bet money on them losing to Navy or Tulane any given weekend? Of course you wouldn't. Nobody would. Would you bet on Tulane or Navy winning more than 2 or 3 games in the SEC? Nobody would. They would struggle against the bottom dwellers and get clobbered by everyone else. None of this can be empirically proven. It's just looking at rosters and recent recruiting ranking. Tulane doesn't get 4 star recruits. Florida is loaded. This isn't just last year. It's every year. Tulane is who I thought I were. They were not competitive against Ole Miss. Florida on the other hand played 7 ranked teams and played them tough. They didn't win but they sure looked better than Tulane.

What poll exactly makes your point? The SOS makes my point. So, i'm on firm ground in my opinion. Even if you want to use the final SOS , ND still played a weaker schedule than Alabama. Thats just a fact. Alabama ranked 4th in SOS. ND ranked 14th. So, twist the polls and 'who beat who' all you want. Thats the reason ND lost out on their CFP spot to Alabama.

Their schedule next year sucks. Go look at it.

 

[jterrell]

Alabama had TWO Real good victories against GA and OK
and THREE REAL BAD defeats to GA, IND and FSU
love how the SEC BOTS talk so much about their wins and absolute silence about their defeats

yup.
OU -- QB was badly injured and entire offense was bad, Bama couldn't run it and turned it over.
Vandy -- Great QB but mediocre team in trenches, especially on defense. Only game all year Bama had a 100-yard runner.
SCar -- was bad all year.
Tenn -- Team had no CBs left. Anyone that could block even a little bit put 30 on Tenn.

Georgia -- Good win but worst Georgia defense of the last 5-6 seasons and possible last decade.

Ty was a solid QB but didn't top 235 yards the final 5 games with multiple future NFL WRs.

Bama was a good team, but they weren't a CFP level team.

 

[Ghost12]

I used the Florida vs Navy or Tulane as a hypothetical to make the point that even when they are bad, would you bet money on them losing to Navy or Tulane any given weekend? Of course you wouldn't. Nobody would.

You keep using the incredibly vague phrase "any given weekend". Historically speaking, LSU and Florida are better than Navy or Tulane. But if your "given weekend" is in 2025 (and the teams were on a neutral field with no point spread) then yes I would absolutely bet money on Navy or Tulane over Florida or LSU. Florida and LSU sucked last year. Like I said above, my answer might be different if we are talking about 2024 or 2026. But using 2025's teams, I absolutely would.

There's a reason Navy and Tulane are ranked and Florida and LSU aren't.

Would you bet on Tulane or Navy winning more than 2 or 3 games in the SEC? Nobody would. They would struggle against the bottom dwellers and get clobbered by everyone else. None of this can be empirically proven.

Exactly. None of what you say can be empirically proven.

Meanwhile virtually everything I have said is a statement of fact and is empirically proven.

It's just looking at rosters and recent recruiting ranking. Tulane doesn't get 4 star recruits. Florida is loaded. This isn't just last year. It's every year. Tulane is who I thought I were. They were not competitive against Ole Miss. Florida on the other hand played 7 ranked teams and played them tough. They didn't win but they sure looked better than Tulane.

With all due respect, when you're thumping your chest over a game a team lost-but-kept-close, you're not really strengthening your thesis.

What poll exactly makes your point?

Every time I have referenced a team's ranking in my posts here, I am referencing the most recent AP poll.

The SOS makes my point. So, i'm on firm ground in my opinion. Even if you want to use the final SOS , ND still played a weaker schedule than Alabama. Thats just a fact. Alabama ranked 4th in SOS. ND ranked 14th.

So, by your own admission, ND had the #14 schedule in the country. Please tell us then why you are complaining about how easy their schedule is year in and year out???

 

[atlantacowboy]

You keep using the incredibly vague phrase "any given weekend". Historically speaking, LSU and Florida are better than Navy or Tulane. But if your "given weekend" is in 2025 (and the teams were on a neutral field with no point spread) then yes I would absolutely bet money on Navy or Tulane over Florida or LSU. Florida and LSU sucked last year. Like I said above, my answer might be different if we are talking about 2024 or 2026. But using 2025's teams, I absolutely would.

There's a reason Navy and Tulane are ranked and Florida and LSU aren't.

Exactly. None of what you say can be empirically proven.

Meanwhile virtually everything I have said is a statement of fact and is empirically proven.

With all due respect, when you're thumping your chest over a game a team lost-but-kept-close, you're not really strengthening your thesis.

Every time I have referenced a team's ranking in my posts here, I am referencing the most recent AP poll.

So, by your own admission, ND had the #14 schedule in the country. Please tell us then why you are complaining about how easy their schedule is year in and year out???

Where did I say they play an easy schedule year in and out? I said their schedule is joke next year based on how at least 8 of those teams played this year. In the context of this conversation, we are comparing their 2025 schedule specifically to Alabama's, and you seem to be saying that ND's schedule was on par or better than Alabama's which is not what the SOS says. So, you can claim fact all you want, but it's just not so. You are throwing as much opinion in here mixed with facts as I am. The difference is that I admit it, and you continue to claim the empirical high ground. lol

I have watched many florida games this year bc they played a lot of ranked teams. I wouldn't bet a dollar on Tulane beating them. But, thats my opinion.

 

[DFWJC]

24 kills conf champ games so ESPN doesn't want that as they own SEC CG with high ratings at great price.
Fox wants 24 so the CFP opens up to new TV partners; i.e. them.

Staying at 12 with a 1-7 Bye week record and no home games for top seeds is just purely stupid.

All leagues---and certainly the SEC-- want 16, except for the Big Ten
Not sure about the networks, but the leagues were trying for 16

 

[Sydla]

There are a few posters in this thread that flat out hate Alabama and you can't have a rationale conversation with them. The CFP committeee has always used the "eyeball test" for the final poll. They looked at NDs body of work and Alabama's and judged Alabama to be the better team. It was a judgement call for sure. I would have been fine if they had put ND in there over Alabama, but I understand that neither team was going to win the national title. So, really this is just about opportunity to get into the playoff, and there's always going to be a discussion for that last spot no matter how many teams.

My issue is that this "controversy" has lead to the CFP caving to ND's public tantrum. Now, ND has an auto-bid if they finish inside the top 12. Next year, they have eight 8 loss teams on their schedule. They have 1 potentially tough game against Miami but who knows what that team will be next year. Miami hasn't been consistent at all this century. The rest are cupcakes.

SOS has to count for a huge part of the CFP poll bc the SEC and Big 10 are brutal minefields to navigate. Meanwhile ND, can theoretically schedule 12 cupcakes and make the playoff. Next years schedule comes pretty close.

They also have BYU on schedule next year.

Also, the Top 12 rule wasn’t due to NDs complaining this year. The MOU was approved in 2024.

I mean at least get the basic facts right.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Scoreboard Jerry Jones style. LOL

SEC Football Isn’t Winning Titles. But There’s One Way It’s Still Crushing the Big Ten.​

Two years since the two athletic conferences aggressively expanded, the SEC’s TV audiences are surging ahead of the Big Ten’s​

 

[atlantacowboy]

They also have BYU on schedule next year.

Also, the Top 12 rule wasn’t due to NDs complaining this year. The MOU was approved in 2024.

I mean at least get the basic facts right.

Here's a fact for you. 8 of the teams on NDs 2026 schedule lost 8 games last year.

Good call on MOU timing, the whining was apparently previous to their most recent whining.