Chances of a Cowboys Super Bowl

[Aven8]

Can you imagine Jaylon trying to tackle Lamar Jackson, or our secondary trying to cover Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce??

 

[MWH1967]

Can you imagine Jaylon trying to tackle Lamar Jackson, or our secondary trying to cover Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce??

 

[MWH1967]

JUST STAWP!!!

I Stawped weeks ago...you need to look both ways before you cross the road.

 

[TheSkaven]

Let me answer your question this way. To get to the Super Bowl, the Cowboys will need to:

1) Beat the Eagles in Philly. I believe that this is highly likely, let’s say >80%.

2) Beat the 49ers in Dallas in the Wildcard round. The Niners have lost two of the last three and I’m not sold on their quarterback. Of all the teams in the NFC, this is the one I’d pick to play. But it’s no gimme. Chances: 40%.

3) Assuming that the Saints take care of business, the Cowboys would then hit the road to play the Seahawks in Seattle. That’s a tough team to beat, especially at home. But Dallas did beat them last year and Carroll has a way of beating his head against the wall with the running game, even when its not working. Chances: 20%.

4) Congrats, the NFCCG. It’ll be either the Saints or Packers; let’s assume Pack because I don’t think the Saints can win at Lambeau Field. I doubt the Cowboys can either, but Philly did beat them there earlier in the season. Chances: 5%

 

[morat1959]

Straight up...

1. 100%

2. 75%

3. 50/50

4/ 25%

5. 10%

6. LOL!

Early....You on the cart or off?

0...ZERO!

 

[morat1959]

Garrett still here?

This!

 

[willia451]

Is that just getting there? Or winning it as well?

 

[MWH1967]

Let me answer your question this way. To get to the Super Bowl, the Cowboys will need to:

1) Beat the Eagles in Philly. I believe that this is highly likely, let’s say >80%.

2) Beat the 49ers in Dallas in the Wildcard round. The Niners have lost two of the last three and I’m not sold on their quarterback. Of all the teams in the NFC, this is the one I’d pick to play. But it’s no gimme. Chances: 40%.

3) Assuming that the Saints take care of business, the Cowboys would then hit the road to play the Seahawks in Seattle. That’s a tough team to beat, especially at home. But Dallas did beat them last year and Carroll has a way of beating his head against the wall with the running game, even when its not working. Chances: 20%.

4) Congrats, the NFCCG. It’ll be either the Saints or Packers; let’s assume Pack because I don’t think the Saints can win at Lambeau Field. I doubt the Cowboys can either, but Philly did beat them there earlier in the season. Chances: 5%

thanks for your thoughts. It's like my high school coach once said to me,on a cool fall day. Look, you have the heart of a lion,but an *** like a bunny rabbit. I knew it was over.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I get your rant..I really, really do. However, if Dallas beats the Eagles they have done enough to put them in no mans land. They don't belong there this year. You could read a little better..just saying.

It really is an indictment against Dallas that Philly is still in the race. They are that bad.

 

[MWH1967]

Is that just getting there? Or winning it as well?

heck, if you are going there..the only thing that would be worth it is winning. other that that you are drafting next to last in every round.

 

[willia451]

heck, if you are going there..the only thing that would be worth it is winning.

10% chance then of getting there AND winning it.

 

[johneric8]

Did I really just click on this thread?

 

[MWH1967]

Did I really just click on this thread?

 

[gmb1]

The same chances as with any Garrett coached team................................

 

[DCowboyz]

We’d have to beat SF, Seattle, and GB/NO? I’d say no.

 

[Diehardblues]

This is why I hate this place so much. They win one dame game and people won't shut up about super bowl this or super bowl that.

It’s not much different than the other extreme after a loss.

 

[wrongway]

5

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

We're onto Philadelphia.

 

[movaughn88]

I'd put it as:

-Odds we beat Philly: I'm feeling good right now, I'd say 75%.

-We're gonna wipe out a Washington team that has nothing to play for, that one's a freebie.

-Wild Card round against San Francisco... I think we have a 20% chance of pulling that game out. If we play 5 times, we pry lose 4 of them.

-Divisional round against Seattle/Green Bay... let's say another 20% there.

-NFC Championship... if the Saints play like they did last night, we have a 10% chance or less of winning that one.

So I'd put the odds at 0.75*1*0.2*0.2*0.1 =... 0.3% chance of the Cowboys going to the Super Bowl.

You have the right idea, but your probabilities are way off.

We def do not have a 75% chance to beat Philly, more like 60-70. Call it 65%

SF in Dallas I think they would be favored by 3-4...to be a 20% underdog it has to go over 7, actually over 8. More like 40%

@SEA or GB, as it stands (looking current, if we just beat SF, out the window) I could see being 6-7 pt underdogs so 25%

There's no less than 10% chance at Saints, that takes a 14+ spread, which we would never be. Better dome team, 30%

.65/.40/.25/.30 = 1.95% chance

 

[Playmaker3128]

I have a very hard time thinking any team is going to beat New Orleans this year in the super dome.

Especially after last years missed call. Conspiracy theory - The nfl owes the saints and they know it. With the way the officiating has been this year I wouldn’t put it past. Be tough enough to beat that team in the dome.