Chris Borland?

[Alexander]

I did not say 2nd round. I actually said we would have to move down to take him so I think he might be a 3rd or 4th round pick, but I do believe it's because people are placing too much stock in his physical as opposed to watching him play. He is good Walker. I really, really like him. If we could pick him up in the 3rd or 4th, I think he would prove to be a steal. He can play.

He is the most instinctive MLB in this class. Hands down. He gets downgraded by the measurement geeks who knock his height, short arms, etc. Zach Thomas got the same label and his instincts made him a great professional.

If anything knocks him down it is not his play but the fact he may need a third surgery on his left shoulder.

 

[xwalker]

I did not say 2nd round. I actually said we would have to move down to take him so I think he might be a 3rd or 4th round pick, but I do believe it's because people are placing too much stock in his physical as opposed to watching him play. He is good Walker. I really, really like him. If we could pick him up in the 3rd or 4th, I think he would prove to be a steal. He can play.

He's the type of player that should be a 4th round pick, IMO.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

He's the type of player that should be a 4th round pick, IMO.

Perhaps but I suspect that when he gets to the NFL, after a few seasons, people are going to be saying, "Why in the hell did I wait to try and take him in the 4th round?!"

 

[xwalker]

Perhaps but I suspect that when he gets to the NFL, after a few seasons, people are going to be saying, "Why in the hell did I wait to try and take him in the 4th round?!"

That can happen with any player not drafted early. The draft is about probabilities.

at the time of the draft the team has to asked the question of which player has the higher probability of being a good NFL player based on all known information.

They could be in the position of comparing the probability of success of players like Juwuan James to Borland. James has good game footage and his measureables fit within the average range for an NFL RT while Borland is shorter, slower with shorter arms than most NFL players at his position.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

That can happen with any player not drafted early. The draft is about probabilities.

at the time of the draft the team has to asked the question of which player has the higher probability of being a good NFL player based on all known information.

They could be in the position of comparing the probability of success of players like Juwuan James to Borland. James has good game footage and his measureables fit within the average range for an NFL RT while Borland is shorter, slower with shorter arms than most NFL players at his position.

We disagree to a certain extent on this. The Draft is not only probabilities. Plenty of examples of this.

 

[xwalker]

We disagree to a certain extent on this. The Draft is not only probabilities. Plenty of examples of this.

No, it's about probabilities, but different teams calculate the probabilities differently.

If probabilities were not considered, then small collage players with terrific game film and good measureables would get drafted higher then they normally get drafted.

More big college players succeed in the NFL than small college players. That is what causes team to rate those players lower than the big college players when everything else is equal.

A guy like Justin Ellis will get drafted 2 or 3 rounds lower than the ND DT Nix despite excellent game film, a very similiar build and better athleticism. That's a probability issue.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

No, it's about probabilities, but different teams calculate the probabilities differently.

If probabilities were not considered, then small collage players with terrific game film and good measureables would get drafted higher then they normally get drafted.

More big college players succeed in the NFL than small college players. That is what causes team to rate those players lower than the big college players when everything else is equal.

A guy like Justin Ellis will get drafted 2 or 3 rounds lower than the ND DT Nix despite excellent game film, a very similiar build and better athleticism. That's a probability issue.

Call it what you want. If a guy can't play but has all the measurements, then it doesn't matter. He can't play. If a guy can play, then that says more about that player then how long his arms are etc.

 

[xwalker]

Call it what you want. If a guy can't play but has all the measurements, then it doesn't matter. He can't play. If a guy can play, then that says more about that player then how long his arms are etc.

You're changing the discussion. We're not talking about guys that can't play.

No college player is guaranteed to be able to play in the NFL. Teams draft the guy that they believe has the highest probability of being a good/great NFL player.

Other players in the 2nd/3rd/4th round of this draft have shown the ability to be terrific college players. It's not as if they are all getting drafted only on measureables.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

You're changing the discussion. We're not talking about guys that can't play.

No college player is guaranteed to be able to play in the NFL. Teams draft the guy that they believe has the highest probability of being a good/great NFL player.

Other players in the 2nd/3rd/4th round of this draft have shown the ability to be terrific college players. It's not as if they are all getting drafted only on measureables.

No. The discussion was about a player who can flat out play. You believe he should be a 4th round pick. I believe he will be a player taken lower because of his measurable but I also think he will prove to teams that he probably should have been taken earlier.

Nothing is changed. You believe it's about measurables and probabilities and I believe it's more then that. You will argue that productivity and actual results is simply another measurable and I will disagree.

Nothing is changed.