Cian Fahey's Take on Dak in 2016 and Beyond

[ActualCowboysFan]

Tldr.

Occasional footwork and mechanical lapses that affect accuracy.
Little blind spot on the right.
Already a solid starter. Team should contend for the next decade with him at the helm.
Amazing mental grasp.
Had similar time in pocket to Wontz but used it to progress and disect the defense instead of whatever the ginger did with it.

I'm a little more bullish on Daks potential for improvement but Cian wasn't a fan for large stretches of the season so his take suprised me a bit.

Edit: can't get the image to link.

Here's the Reddit thread if anyone is interested or a mod could help me out

 

[Sydla]

Is it me or is the video not coming through for some?

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

Is it me or is the video not coming through for some?

Mb. My phone hates CZ

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Wontz haha

 

[Trouty]

Is it me or is the video not coming through for some?

There's a vid?? All I saw was the (printed) snippet

 

[School]

So I decided to resurrect this thread because I spent some of my bitcoin money on Cian’s qb catalogue. I’ve been following him on twitter for a while, and he has made some calls that were very controversial at the time but have slowly become accepted as reality (Bortles actually being terrible despite his flashy stats in 2015). He’s also Irish, so he’s about as unbiased as you can get.

I thought I’d share some of his ruminations on the other qbs in the NFC East. I added a little more bit for Wentz since he’s probably the most controversial and will always be compared against Dak. Some are direct quotes, some are me summarizing, bullet pointed for your reading convenience. I highly recommend his catalogue. These are just small pieces of the overall work.

Risen, you may want to stop reading here.


Carson Wentz

• Plants feet at the top of his drop and doesn’t move.
• Very inaccurate passer who mostly overthrows his passes when he misses; leads to more interceptable passes.
• Capable of making decisive movements to break pocket and make defenders miss in space.
• Struggled to execute simple throws in a simple offense.
• Stares down receivers and doesn’t throw with anticipation.
• During the first 3 weeks of the season, the optics of what was happening were more impressive than what was actually happening.
• Wentz wasn’t making difficult plays or showing a wide array of skills.
• Wentz’s splash plays were primarily created by his athleticism rather than his technical prowess.
• He was executing simple concepts in an offense that strived to take pressure off of him.
• Clean pockets, receivers not needing to be thrown open, and no progression reads to break down the defense after the snap were themes.
• The Eagles’ success was a testament to the play calling and designs of Doug Pederson, a disciple of Andy Reid.
• Reid’s offense minimizes the responsibilities of the quarterback by relying heavily on misdirection and play designs that don’t ask the quarterback to throw into tight windows.
• The quarterback is given clearly-defined concepts and isn’t expected to carry the offense with intermediate or deep throws.
• The scheme trades explosiveness for consistency, which is why both Alex Smith and Wentz ranked in the bottom third of the league in average depth of target, but ranked in the top five for percentage of yards gained on screen plays and in the top 10 for yards gained after the catch.
• Addition of Brandon Brooks allowed the Eagles o-line to return to being one of the best in the league.
• Lane Johnson’s absence was less about his value and more about the schedule.
• Wentz was challenged more in the games when Johnson was out. Those challenges revealed warts that quickly infected his performances.
• Bad footwork was Wentz’s biggest issue coming out of college. Stands in the pocket like vines have rooted him to the spot.
• This was worked on in the offseason, but like the work on Blake Bortles’ broken throwing motion, that work had an impact for a short time, and Wentz reverted back to what was natural.
• Due to the talent discrepancy in college, Wentz could get away with bad habits. He never had to throw with anticipation, adjust his feet, or come off his first read.
• 5.11 percent of his attempts were interceptable, only seven quarterbacks had a worse interceptable pass rate and all seven played in far less quarterback-friendly systems.
• Besides staring down his first read, Wentz’s most common type of interceptable pass came when he wildly overthrew his targets.
• Misses high, which are always more problematic than missing low, but especially so when trying to throw over the middle of the field.
• Wentz shows off no understanding of ball placement or how to throw receivers to space.
• The most damning indictment against Wentz is that he ranked 27th in overall accuracy last year despite having a low average depth of target and running a quarterback-friendly offense.
• Wentz wasn’t just the worst quarterback in the league on throws to the line of scrimmage. He was the worst in the league in spectacular fashion.
• Pederson clearly wants to incorporate screens but what can he really do with a quarterback who can’t even make the easiest throws?
• Wentz’s receivers ranked in the top 10 in failed receptions, but when adjusted for attempts they were simply below average. His receivers actually led the league in created receptions with 28.
• It doesn’t appear that there is any actual thought that goes into how he throws the ball. It’s a matter of throwing at the general area of the receiver rather than throwing to the specific route.
• Jeffrey and Smith are vertical route runners.
• Wentz hit 28.57 percent of his deep throws. Only five quarterbacks didn’t cross 30 percent, and the league average was in the 40s.
• Contrary to public wisdom, he has a lot of work to do to this offseason to approach the Wentz some media members believe in.

Kirk Cousins

• Capitulates against pressure, mechanics collapse, prioritizes protecting body over punishing defense
• Rarely asked to move in the pocket and doesn’t perform well in condensed pockets.
• Ball placement rarely precise, constantly asks receivers to make unnecessary adjustments.
• Receivers thrived at everything, created big plays and rarely failed to catch accurate passes.
• Crowder is one of the best young receivers in the league.
• Played behind one of the best pass-blocking lines in the league.
• Clearly had the best supporting cast in the NFL last year.
• Quick decision maker.
• Can make touch throws to deeper crossing routes off of play action and picks apart middle of field off of play action.
• Horrific interceptable pass rate in 2015, which improved significantly in 2016.
• Racked up impressive numbers, but repeatedly did so while offering up inadequate performances.
• Should’ve blown out the Cowboys in week 2, missed numerous big play throws.
• Has always been inclined to catch and release as quick as possible, rushes checkdowns.
• Will be more susceptible to disguised coverage and aggressive blitzes without Jackson.
• Struggles to throw short out routes from the opposite hash because of his arm strength.
• Can Cousins’ skillset offset decline in supporting cast? Probably not.
• Nothing about Cousins’ skill set functions at a high level.
• Above-average ability to read defenses, below-average arm strength, and doesn’t throw receivers open with precision.
• Cousins is someone who has been elevated by his teammates rather than someone who elevates his teammates.

Eli Manning

• Mechanics stay sound against heavy pressure or when asked to move in pocket.
• Consistently makes good pre and post-snap reads.
• Throws with great timing and anticipation.
• His declining arm strength has limited his ability to throw from different platforms.
• Can throw from either flat but has no run threat.
• Ben McAdoo has extended Eli Manning’s career.
• Previous OC Gilbride has Manning playing in a scheme that called for deep drops and pushing ball downfield, asked a lot of the qb.
• McAdoo’s scheme features shorter routes and shotgun, which emphasizes Manning’s mental prowess
• Very accurate on 1-5 yard range, inaccurate past 5 yards, reflecting decline in arm strength
• Had too many wide open misses last year
• Most throws are within 5 yards or beyond 20 yards.
• Large number of short passes helped set up deep shot attempts.
• Manning’s ability to manipulate defenders with his eyes and decipher coverages meant most deep throws were made in favorable situations.
• Problem with deep throws was the o-line.
• If Ereck Flowers isn’t the worst starting left tackle in the NFL he’s definitely in the bottom three.
• Flowers’ presence means that Manning is permanently under pressure, which helped lead to 2nd highest percentage of 3-and-outs in the league.
• Beckham can run any route and run it well.
• Had a lot of failed receptions but made it for those by creating big plays.
• Brandon Marshall (and Decker) dragged Ryan Fitzpatrick to 31 touchdowns.
• He is the ideal complement to Beckham and Sterling Shepard. Another accuracy-erasing receiver along with Beckham.
• Important because Manning has struggled with ball placement over recent years.
• Engram could represent an even bigger upgrade at TE than Marshall at WR due to horrific TE play.
• Due to threat of WR corps, defenses will want to keep 2 safeties deep on most plays. Giants may not be able to run well enough to force eams out of that look.
• Last year bubble screens were used to replace running plays rather than supplement it.

 

[Verdict]

Thanks for the effort you put into typing all that here. Very good read. Thanks again.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

Tldr.

Occasional footwork and mechanical lapses that affect accuracy.
Little blind spot on the right.
Already a solid starter. Team should contend for the next decade with him at the helm.
Amazing mental grasp.
Had similar time in pocket to Wontz but used it to progress and disect the defense instead of whatever the ginger did with it.

I'm a little more bullish on Daks potential for improvement but Cian wasn't a fan for large stretches of the season so his take suprised me a bit.

Edit: can't get the image to link.

Here's the Reddit thread if anyone is interested or a mod could help me out

So his accuracy can improve from 67.8%? Awesome!

 

[waving monkey]

Some insightful, sound reading ,School thanks.

 

[School]

So his accuracy can improve from 67.8%? Awesome!

Dak was above average accuracy-wise, but there's still room for improvement. His accuracy percentage (whether or not he threw an accurate pass regardless if it was caught or not) was 75.60%, good for 11th overall, while ranking 12th in average depth of throw.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

Dak was above average accuracy-wise, but there's still room for improvement. His accuracy percentage (whether or not he threw an accurate pass regardless if it was caught or not) was 75.60%, good for 11th overall, while ranking 12th in average depth of throw.

Well, no one is gonna be a RoboQB in terms of accuracy.

Even the greatest qb of them all TBrady (to most), isn't elite in terms of accuracy.

Not including rookie year when he played only a few games, here are the years after.
2001 - 63.9%
2002 - 62.1%
2003 - 60.2%
2004 - 60.8%
2005 - 63.0%
2006 - 61.8%

Only 2 times has Brady thrown 67% or above in his career. 2007, and last year 2016. For his career, he is 63.8%.

 

[Idgit]

Lol, Wentz.

This is actually pretty consistent with what Wentz actually did this year. I'm not sure how that guy gets the hype he gets given where his skills are actually at. He's got a lot of work to do yet.

 

[School]

Well, no one is gonna be a RoboQB in terms of accuracy.

Even the greatest qb of them all TBrady (to most), isn't elite in terms of accuracy.

Not including rookie year when he played only a few games, here are the years after.
2001 - 63.9%
2002 - 62.1%
2003 - 60.2%
2004 - 60.8%
2005 - 63.0%
2006 - 61.8%

Only 2 times has Brady thrown 67% or above in his career. 2007, and last year 2016. For his career, he is 63.8%.

Rodgers is essentially a RoboQB. I don't require that Dak become one, just acknowledging that there is room for improvement.

It's hard to make a blanket statement like saying Brady isn't elite in terms of accuracy. It depends on which area of the field you're talking about. Brady has god-like accuracy in the 11-20, but is not an accurate deep thrower.

 

[Knotamus]

I hate to admit it.. but the Giants passing threat scares me. Beckham, Marshall, Shepherd, & Engram.. smh. And although I like how Dallas rebuilt our secondary with young, aggressive, and talented players.. that equals a lot of inexperience. Ok, someone please calm me down...

 

[Pants]

I hate to admit it.. but the Giants passing threat scares me. Beckham, Marshall, Shepherd, & Engram.. smh. And although I like how Dallas rebuilt our secondary with young, aggressive, and talented players.. that equals a lot of inexperience. Ok, someone please calm me down...

Well, we will get chance to see their passing game, because they will be trailing a lot...they will need to do something to try to catch up

 

[School]

I hate to admit it.. but the Giants passing threat scares me. Beckham, Marshall, Shepherd, & Engram.. smh. And although I like how Dallas rebuilt our secondary with young, aggressive, and talented players.. that equals a lot of inexperience. Ok, someone please calm me down...

The Giants running game ranked 26th in DVOA (Football Outsiders metric that measures efficiency on a snap-by-snap basis). They didn't do much to improve that area, so they may not be able to keep teams honest with the running game.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

Rodgers is essentially a RoboQB. I don't require that Dak become one, just acknowledging that there is room for improvement.

And he himself has only 3 seasons of over 67%. Just find it weird that Dak needs room to improve from a year he went 67.8%.

 

[JBS]

And he himself has only 3 seasons of over 67%. Just find it weird that Dak needs room to improve from a year he went 67.8%.

Completion % does not equal accuracy

 

[Hawkeye19]

The Giants running game ranked 26th in DVOA (Football Outsiders metric that measures efficiency on a snap-by-snap basis). They didn't do much to improve that area, so they may not be able to keep teams honest with the running game.

They have also been incredibly fortunate in regards to Eli's health. That can change at any point and the likelihood increases the older he gets

 

[noshame]

What I saw in Dak last year that impressed me the most is his ability to drop balls over the LB's head and still hit the receiver in stride. There are not many in the NFL that can make that throw and I never seem a rookie do it as well. It's so hard to take enough off a pass and drop it in, and most importantly hit the receiver in stride. I bet 90-95% of QB's fire that pass and if it's off the receivers hands it's a pick. As the kid gets more time with receivers and Linehan expands the offense, it'll be fun to watch. Is he going to throw more pics? yes. Because he has to test the limits. Year three is when he'll begin to set records.