Cleveland's First Round Pick...

[Woods]

OK I went to gbnreport.com and looked at the Value Chart.

Disclaimer: I hope I'm calculating this correctly . . . .

According to the Value Chart, the top pick in the draft is worth 3,000 points.

2nd pick in Draft is worth 2,600 pts

3rd pick is worth 2,200

4th pick is worth 1,800

5th pick is worth 1,700

6th pick is worth 1,600 pts

and 7th pick is worth 1,500 pts.

Let's assume the McFadden doesn't fall below the 7th overall pick.

Now, let's assume that Cleveland's pick is at 21 in the 1st. I think that's where they are currently. That's worth 800 points.

Let's assume we win the Super Bowl and are picking 31 (since the Pats lost their 1st rounder). That's worth 600 points. (If we lose the Super Bowl that around 620 points, so not much difference. We might as well just win it! )

If we win the Super Bowl, let's assume our 2nd round pick next draft is around 63, that's worth around 276 points or so.

If we add up our points, that's just over 1,670 points.

I think if McFadden were to fall to around 4-5th overall, it's doable without sacrificing next year.

I think the problem is if McFadden goes in the top 2 overall picks, then I think we'll have to give both 1st this year, our 1st next year, plus probably another picks and/or players. (Assuming I'm calculating this correctly.)

 

[burmafrd]

Calvin Johnson is not exactly lighting things up. His hands are very suspect.

 

[burmafrd]

We could throw in Spears and Carp. With our two picks. That might make the difference.

 

[Woods]

We could throw in Spears and Carp. With our two picks. That might make the difference.

Yes, I think we may have to do something like that to get the deal done.

 

[smarta5150]

Yeah...


At getting hurt.

Boooo... I was hoping for a better reaction lol

At least some other people to get sucked.

:

 

[vicjagger]

I kind of see them winning 3 or 4. Honestly, how many games they win doesn't really matter. What we need to be cheering for is Tennessee taking that 6th playoff spot from them. That would put our pick in the 18-20 range instead of 22-26 range if they make the playoffs.

How do you figure that this draft pick could vary by as much as 8 picks just by making the playoffs? Sounds to me like you might be assuming that the farther you advance, the lower you pick, which isn't entirely true.

I say entirely because the first rule of the draft is that the Super Bowl teams pick 31 & 32. Thereafter, all teams are stratified into tiers based upon reg. season record. 0-16, then 1-15, then 2-14 teams, etc. Then, if applicable, each tier is broken into 2 groups, with non-playoff teams picking before playoff teams. Finally each of these tiers or sub-tiers are sorted according to Strength of Schedule (SOS), lowest to highest.

So if Cleveland finishes, say 10-6, making the playoffs would only move them back if there is another 10-6 that doesn't qualify. Winning a playoff game would have zero effect, unless they advance all the way to the big one.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Mike Hart >>>>> McFadden

Rack >>>>> Everyone else

 

[SMCowboy]

How do you figure that this draft pick could vary by as much as 8 picks just by making the playoffs? Sounds to me like you might be assuming that the farther you advance, the lower you pick, which isn't entirely true.

I say entirely because the first rule of the draft is that the Super Bowl teams pick 31 & 32. Thereafter, all teams are stratified into tiers based upon reg. season record. 0-16, then 1-15, then 2-14 teams, etc. Then, if applicable, each tier is broken into 2 groups, with non-playoff teams picking before playoff teams. Finally each of these tiers or sub-tiers are sorted according to Strength of Schedule (SOS), lowest to highest.

So if Cleveland finishes, say 10-6, making the playoffs would only move them back if there is another 10-6 that doesn't qualify. Winning a playoff game would have zero effect, unless they advance all the way to the big one.

Keep in mind also, Cleveland will lose ANY SOS matchup, they may very well have the easiest schedule of any team in the league.

 

[BlueStar II]

I can easily see them winning all four remaining games as well. While it's going to be nice to have 2 1st round picks, I have a feeling Jerry Jones will package them and move up to get a "wow" type player as he has been quoted as saying. At this point, Miami appears to be the one who will have the 1st pick in the draft, and they could certainly use a RB like McFadden, but they could also use a highly rated DT like Dorsey as well though. If the Dolphins keep that 1st pick, I'm inclined to say they'll take McFadden over Dorsey. With Julius Jones being gone after this year, and we could certainly use someone like McFadden to team up with Barber, I would love to see us find a way to get McFadden, but I'm not going to hold my breath over it though. We could possibly pick Kevin Smith instead, as far as RBs go, or... we could see which WRs are on the board with the "wow" factor who would appeal to Jerry Jones. With T.O. and Glenn both being 34 next year, and with the uncertainty about Glenn's knee, WR would be an option as well. Jones realizes his new stadium will have lots of seats to fill, and that's one reason why I think Jones feels he needs a player(s) with the "wow" factor as well.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

I can easily see them winning all four remaining games as well.

I cant see the Browns winning a total of 6 out of their last 7 games.

No matter how you slice it.... 4 consecutive wins is not an easy thing.

 

[Chuck 54]

Regardless of where that selection ends up, it's a great year to have two #1's. When you are a very successful team with good depth at several positions, it gets harder and harder for the young guys to make the team, so it's a great year to have two #1's, even if they are both in the 25-30 range.

We'll get two very good players who can help our team greatly.

We'd love to be at the top of the draft and get a super blue chipper and hope he doesn't go bust or get injured, but we are desperate for a young WR with #1 potential and deperate for a starting caliber CB, maybe two unless you still hold out hope for Jones.

If Newman or Henry are injured in the playoffs, or even if Reeves were out, we'd be screwed against the good teams. We won without one guy for part of the season, but we paid for starting Jones in the slot.

We should get two very good players in round 1. I would not package those picks to move up....I'd package a #1 with other picks if we just want to move up a few slots for a certain player, but we can forget about DM. IMO.

 

[Eddie]

I'm with Wayne. I'm not worried about the Browns pick. I'm happy we got Spencer AND an additional 1st round pick.

I wonder what the Browns are going to do with Brady Quinn now?

 

[jazzcat22]

I kind of see them winning 3 or 4. Honestly, how many games they win doesn't really matter. What we need to be cheering for is Tennessee taking that 6th playoff spot from them. That would put our pick in the 18-20 range instead of 22-26 range if they make the playoffs.

Making the playoffs have nothing to do with where the draft pick is. Unless you play in the SB. Making the playoofs no matter your record does not mean you pick 22 - 32. a 7-9 Division winner will still pick below a 8-8 team, unless they play in the SB.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

I'm not even counting on that pick bringing us a dynamic player!

 

[SMCowboy]

Making the playoffs have nothing to do with where the draft pick is. Unless you play in the SB. Making the playoofs no matter your record does not mean you pick 22 - 32. a 7-9 Division winner will still pick below a 8-8 team, unless they play in the SB.

True, but considering that their looks like a strong possibilty that there will be 4 to 6 teams tied in the 8-8 to 10-6 record, Cleveland making the playoffs or not making the playoffs could easly affect the draft pick by 4 or 5 slots. As making the playoffs would have cleveland picking after everyone else, but if they don't make the playoffs they would lose any tiebreaker because of how weak their SOS has been.

 

[jobberone]

I really think the decision has already been made.

Jerry said we needed a "wow" player on offense from this draft. The only 2 positions on offense that would be considered "wow", would be WR and RB.

McFadden is head and shoulders above any of the other backs in this draft and will be the first guy drafted. This would be a "wow" player.

There are currently no WRs in this years group that have "wow". The biggest name is Desean Jackson from Cal and even he is not all that spectacular. Calvin Johnson was a "wow" player, at least in college that is.

So when Jerry says we need a "wow" player on offense from this draft, I really dont know who he would be talking about other than McFadden.

Like I said, the decision has already been made.............my .02

I'm worried you are right. And my first thought was the same. I think it's part wishing and maybe some posturing. I see no way without giving away the farm to get McFadden. That's what make think we will go WR. That's the only offensive wow player we really need outside RB.

 

[Joe a Cowboys fan]

It doesn't mean nothing to me, a first rounder is a first rounder. It's good for us regardless. Just means due diligence in the pick is more important. So long as we get the best available values I will be happy. I don't expect a "WOW" trade as neither pick will get us to where a high probablity WoW will be. I still want a solid WR and a cover corner from our first rounders though.