Coin Toss what do we do?

[KingintheNorth]

I also feel deferring sends the message to the other team that we are confident in our defense aka do not fear your offense.

Taking the ball puts a lot of pressure on your Offense to score on that opening drive. If you punt, you are basically down 1 possession to 2 at that point.

Again, this is literally just one possession we are debating over. I just love the mindset of deferring and sayinng give us your best shot now, we aren't worried.

 

[Coogiguy03]

I can actually see a positive it taking the ball. If your offense can go down and score, it could put a lower scoring team like GB who needs to run in a bit of a bind.

lower scoring team, if we don't cover/tackle/make plays on offense, they could be the ones scoring more

 

[Doomsday101]

I always want Defense 1st. I don't think a game is determined on opening drive. I do think being able to extend your lead or if trailing to cut the deficit by getting the ball in the 2nd half is a bigger factor.

 

[pentatwirl]

I could go either way.

 

[BLEU3ASY]

Defense on the field first. three and out. That's like stealing a possession.. That's ideal anyway...

 

[links18]

Steal the coin and run?

 

[DogFace]

Is there more to the game than winning and losing? Those are the only "stats and analytics" I'm talking about here.

What I’m about is what increases your chances of doing that.
Coaches agree. Stats agree. And I’m certain of it.

 

[MapleLeaf]

Always defer...unless you are playing the worst defence in the league and their major defensive stars are injured. Then take the ball and jump on them right away.

 

[JD_KaPow]

What I’m about is what increases your chances of doing that.
Coaches agree. Stats agree. And I’m certain of it.

Welp, the Cowboys got to kick off today, and they doubled up the scoring going in and coming out. Whoo-hoo.

 

[JD_KaPow]

What I’m about is what increases your chances of doing that.
Coaches agree. Stats agree. And I’m certain of it.

So I got curious and looked at the last four seasons of numbers.

The data is consistent insofar as teams that win the toss have a .517 winning percentage, which is really weird. And teams that defer do better than teams that receive. But...

Teams that defer at home have a win% of .544. That's good.
Teams that elect to receive at home have a win% of .603. That's crazy.
Teams that defer on the road have a win% of .501. That's good, given that homefield advantage exists.
Teams that elect to receive on the road have a win% of .327. Huh?

Do bad teams playing on the road elect to receive? Too much work to go figure that out, but that's a bizarre result. My inclination is still that all of this is meaningless, but if you believe this data, you should defer on the road and receive at home. And most importantly, you should make sure to win the coin toss.