I dont get how having the ball first in half 1 has anything to do with increasing the chances of having it last, where do people get that? The game resets to start the second half, having more minutes in half 1 actually decreases your chances of having more minutes on O in the second half
Right.
Getting the ball first in the 1st half does not increase the chance of having it last in the 2nd half.
Just like getting the ball first in the 2nd half doesn't increase your odds of getting it last in the 1st half (the back-to-back possessions everyone keeps talking about
Whether you defer or receive the opening kickoff has no affect on your chances of having more possessions.
In every game there are 3 possible outcomes, if you exclude overtime games: You can have the same # of possessions as the other team, or you can end up with 1 more possession, or 1 less possession. But deferring or receiving statistically doesn't affect it.
So teams should just do what they like...