Common Assumptions

[Bobhaze]

We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just 5 of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.

We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?

 

[Dak_Attack_09]

We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just five of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.

We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?

OL & DL will make or break the season.

Having stability on both sides of the trenches allows your other good factors to repeat again making it into a pattern instead of a fluke.


Issac Alacron is going to be the 4th best OL on this team by end of the season. He will be able to play OG & OT.

 

[blueblood70]

We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just five of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.

We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?

the starters didn't have ps last year the same offense pretty much will start the season with the same reps they had last year or more for game 1 ) just saying did we forget they had no PDS last year and virtual meetings and practices? they have far more field time, scrimmages and practices then last season..

 

[blueblood70]

o, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat. true and no they wont
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually. yes because last year they had less of an offeseaosn came out hot same players and coaches assumptions correct
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it. agreed
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. YES running game will be much better. IF KM figures out how to use it
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? agreed, big Maybe.but leaning 90% yes
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Agree Yes, I assume he will be great.

im a homer lol going all cowboy

 

[jazzcat22]

Zeke will rebound and look like his rookie year. The eye test from TC showed me so.

 

[blueblood70]

Zeke will rebound and look like his rookie year. The eye test from TC showed me so.

i wouldnt go that far but if a healthy OL and dak is ther eto threaten the defense he will be a lot better ill take 2019 zeke and more pollard will make the run game much improved..

 

[jazzcat22]

i wouldnt go that far but if a healthy OL and dak is ther eto threaten the defense he will be a lot better ill take 2019 zeke and more pollard will make the run game much improved..

Yeah they need to have a little more Pollard in there. However it needs to be in between the 20's. Not inside the 20 when Zeke comes out for a few plays. So it seems.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

So....Zeke had NEARLY a record setting rookie year....but in order to be appreciated he has to equal or better that?
(I'm not saying you Bob...just in general).

I agree with blueblood....the real problem here is, aside from getting behind BIG early on...is how effective the OC's game plan is. I've not seen a clever game plan or Zeke and Tony. The "game plan" is run zeke up the middle of a terrible O-line....then put Tony in when zeke raises his hand.

That isn't gonna do it.

 

[75boyz]

OL & DL will make or break the season.

Having stability on both sides of the trenches allows your other good factors to repeat again making it into a pattern instead of a fluke.


Issac Alacron is going to be the 4th best OL on this team by end of the season. He will be able to play OG & OT.

I haven't been watching Alarcon as closely as you but your first 2 opinions stated here are mine as well.

The trenches on both sides of the ball will determine everything for this team.

Period.

jmo

 

[blueblood70]

So....Zeke had NEARLY a record setting rookie year....but in order to be appreciated he has to equal or better that?
(I'm not saying you Bob...just in general).

I agree with blueblood....the real problem here is, aside from getting behind BIG early on...is how effective the OC's game plan is. I've not seen a clever game plan or Zeke and Tony. The "game plan" is run zeke up the middle of a terrible O-line....then put Tony in when zeke raises his hand.

That isn't gonna do it.

 

[cityochamps]

Zeke will rebound and look like his rookie year. The eye test from TC showed me so.

 

[Hagman]

My assumption, or hope (?), is that Dak will make a full recovery. I also assume that the defense is still soft, especially up the middle (though improved from last year). The result will be that with all of his weapons that Dak will have a monster year statistically, especially being forced to play from behind, even though that won't translate into a whole lot of wins (re: concerns about defense).

Anyway, that's why Dak is my fantasy QB. If I'm wrong I will pay a painful price in a league of Mahomes worshippers here in Missouri.

 

[blueblood70]

So....Zeke had NEARLY a record setting rookie year....but in order to be appreciated he has to equal or better that?
(I'm not saying you Bob...just in general).

I agree with blueblood....the real problem here is, aside from getting behind BIG early on...is how effective the OC's game plan is. I've not seen a clever game plan or Zeke and Tony. The "game plan" is run zeke up the middle of a terrible O-line....then put Tony in when zeke raises his hand.

That isn't gonna do it.

yup that what the hater clownfans want zekes has to be 2016 or hes a failure they forget he led the league through 2018 i mean 2017 led the league in YPG, 2018 rushing crown and 2019 KM first year he was 4th in the league in rushing 30yards behind CM..

it's crazy the hate this guy gets when his career so far has been great.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

yup that what the hater clownfans want zekes has to be 2016 or hes a failure they forget he led the league through 2018 i mean 2017 led the league in YPG, 2018 rushing crown and 2019 KM first year he was 4th in the league in rushing 30yards behind CM..

it's crazy the hate this guy gets when his career so far has been great.

And not to mention....his blocking for Dak....has been heroic. Dak is a tough kid but have to give credit for his healthy streak.

 

[Bobhaze]

So....Zeke had NEARLY a record setting rookie year....but in order to be appreciated he has to equal or better that?
(I'm not saying you Bob...just in general).

I agree with blueblood....the real problem here is, aside from getting behind BIG early on...is how effective the OC's game plan is. I've not seen a clever game plan or Zeke and Tony. The "game plan" is run zeke up the middle of a terrible O-line....then put Tony in when zeke raises his hand.

That isn't gonna do it.

Yeah, I don’t think Zeke is terrible. Unquestionably he’s overpaid in a league where RBs are a dime a dozen. As Zeke enters his sixth season, he has been remarkably durable. No major injuries and he’s been a tough cookie on top of that. He’s been a very reliably good RB.

But when you look at the number of total touches Zeke has had going back to his Soph yr at OSU, he has a lot of miles on those tires. Does that mean he’s “finished”? No. But the days of him being a centerpiece of this offense are over. He may have another 1,000 yard season. Certainly hope so. But I also expect his total touches to be down around 16-18 instead of 30 like most years. Pollard will be getting 12-15 touches per game, which IMO will make the running game better overall, which is great.

 

[blueblood70]

Yeah, I don’t think Zeke is terrible. Unquestionably he’s overpaid in a league where RBs are a dime a dozen. As Zeke enters his sixth season, he has been remarkably durable. No major injuries and he’s been a tough cookie on top of that. He’s been a very reliably good RB.

But when you look at the number of total touches Zeke has had going back to his Soph yr at OSU, he has a lot of miles on those tires. Does that mean he’s “finished”? No. But the days of him being a centerpiece of this offense are over. He may have another 1,000 yard season. Certainly hope so. But I also expect his total touches to be down around 16-18 instead of 30 like most years. Pollard will be getting 12-15 touches per game, which IMO will make the running game better overall, which is great.

thats a terrible narrative "a dime dozen" odd only EIGHT(8) RBs broke 1k yards last season one had 4.3 YPC average and another Jacobs 3.9 which is worse then zekes 4.0 at 11th ranked yards wise

a reliable and great RB can still win in this league..

that dime a dozen is like saying in 2018 you can win with a WRBC wr by committee .howd that work out ?

sure a few teams found ways to use 2-3 rbs to create a run game but its not what works consistently..they still have value..

 

[Bobhaze]

thats a terrible narrative "a dime dozen" odd only EIGHT(8) RBs broke 1k yards last season one had 4.3 YPC average and another Jacobs 3.9 which is worse then zekes 4.0 at 11th ranked yards wise

a reliable and great RB can still win in this league..

that dime a dozen is like saying in 2018 you can win with a WRBC wr by committee .howd that work out ?

sure a few teams found ways to use 2-3 rbs to create a run game but its not what works consistently..they still have value..

The dime a dozen reference refers to cost. Most NFL teams aren’t spending big bucks or high draft picks on RBs. Look at the pats trading their former first round RB Sony Michele to the Rams for two late round picks. RBs are cheap. It’s a fact, not a dis. In other words you can get a decent back for cheap.

 

[CouchCoach]

I assume two things. One, WFT will not repeat because of history. The 17 year history of the East with no repeater since the Eagles did that last and the history of WFT's QB. Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite personalities in all pro sports but he is not a top 14 QB.

The second thing I assume is that I am not very good at assuming when it comes to the NFL and the disappointing and surprising teams every season are there to remind me of that.

I do assume the defense will be improved because it was so bad last season, I just can't see it being that bad again but the tricky part of that is how much improved?

I can make the assumption that the Cowboys will win the East but I do not see them winning a divisional game without some help and luck.

I assume the 4 best teams in the NFC are TB, GB, LAR and SEA and I think they are all better offensively and defensively than the Cowboys. I also think they have superior coaching. Those 4 teams have potential to be great while I think the Cowboys have the potential to be good. I'll take good and be happy with that.

The Cowboys were 6-10 last season and 1-3 with the QB1 healthy and they looked every bit of that at times. That defense wasn't bent, it was broken and against the run, it was awful.

This team wins 9 or 10 games and makes the playoffs, I am not assuming I will be good with that, I know I will be.

 

[Ranching]

We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just 5 of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.

We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?

I don't assume anything, anymore. Too many unknowns and too many variables that can make or break a season. Nowadays, I just like to enjoy the games and will get hyped up for a playoff run, if and when the time comes!
I only assume that I will have a great meal on GameDay.....Salud, and Go Cowboys!!!!

 

[Floatyworm]

Zeke will rebound and look like his rookie year. The eye test from TC showed me so.

The minute he lays one on the carpet.....the entire world is gonna crush him. You know it's coming.

And he will crawl right back into his shell and not come out...Won't shock me if Pollard ends up being named a starter during the season.