Common Assumptions

[blueblood70]

he

The dime a dozen reference refers to cost. Most NFL teams aren’t spending big bucks or high draft picks on RBs. Look at the pats trading their former first round RB Sony Michele to the Rams for two late round picks. RBs are cheap. It’s a fact, not a dis. In other words you can get a decent back for cheap.

Hes nowhere near as good as zeke and at least 5-6 teams are paying rbs more or slightly less then zeke with more coming..chubb will get paid did cook get his others like SB etc if you are an elite back and zeke was before the beginning of KM and covid happened,..so while some of your characterizations and or stereotypes are valid,

zeke was a top back when he got paid he was our offense and can still be top back and he earned that deal lie the 5-6 pother backs , much like top 5-5 at any potion make much more then their counterparts RB is not different is my argument..

could you live without it, sure but its not that big of a mistake to pay a top rb top money if they remain productive, zeke outside of last year is productive and even at his worst was average that his worst..its too late to keep on the same old narrative and complain about a deal done before 2019 ,its over get OVER it..get passed it

 

[blueblood70]

The dime a dozen reference refers to cost. Most NFL teams aren’t spending big bucks or high draft picks on RBs. Look at the pats trading their former first round RB Sony Michele to the Rams for two late round picks. RBs are cheap. It’s a fact, not a dis. In other words you can get a decent back for cheap.

what i will concede is If jerry had an idea he was allowing KM to change the offense and dak , with Gallup, ac, and then to add Lamb was going to change this offense to a top chewing run first play a safer game to help the defense and use PA off of it to pass happy type, he should not have paid Zeke..

that i can agree on the direction they went was NOT zekes fault has nothing to do with him or his position or contract, the Offense and the play calling just flipped seemingly overnight right after zeke got his money, that made no sense..

zeke belongs in a Raven or titan offense and to some extent the Browns offesne where the goal is hucking and chucking it 40times a game..

 

[jazzcat22]

The minute he lays one on the carpet.....the entire world is gonna crush him. You know it's coming.

And he will crawl right back into his shell and not come out...Won't shock me if Pollard ends up being named a starter during the season.

nothing else just a

 

[charron]

assumptions I see on this board:

Dak will be back to 2019 form-
Our defense will be good (above average)-
Players get better every year-

 

[xwalker]

I haven't been watching Alarcon as closely as you but your first 2 opinions stated here are mine as well.

The trenches on both sides of the ball will determine everything for this team.

Period.

jmo

You've probably watched Alarcon more closely than @Dak_Attack_09 has watched him if you have ever reviewed 1 snap played by Alarcon for the Cowboys.

 

[xwalker]

We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just 5 of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.

We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?

I predict:
@Bobhaze will create threads on random Cowboys topics as if his threads are computer generated like some internet new services.
Bob is either computer generated or a retired guy paid to create threads on topics that nobody else is posting about.
Has Bob even replied in anybody else's threads or is he 100% exclusive to his own threads?

@Dak_Attack_09 will create hype threads and post negative threads about players being hyped by other people.

@blueblood70 will post often with what might be really good opinions but most people will not read them due to the formatting being too painful to view.

 

[Bobhaze]

I predict:
@Bobhaze will create threads on random Cowboys topics as if his threads are computer generated like some internet new services.
Bob is either computer generated or a retired guy paid to create threads on topics that nobody else is posting about.
Has Bob even replied in anybody else's threads or is he 100% exclusive to his own threads?

@Dak_Attack_09 will create hype threads and post negative threads about players being hyped by other people.

@blueblood70 will post often with what might be really good opinions but most people will not read them due to the formatting being too painful to view.

Wow. Thanks for stopping by X man. Somehow you missed the 11 threads I’ve commented on the last 24 hrs but being factually correct obviously isn’t required here, lol. Don’t understand the dis, but always glad to see you swoop in on a post. Keep ‘em coming brother.

 

[blueblood70]

I predict:
@Bobhaze will create threads on random Cowboys topics as if his threads are computer generated like some internet new services.
Bob is either computer generated or a retired guy paid to create threads on topics that nobody else is posting about.
Has Bob even replied in anybody else's threads or is he 100% exclusive to his own threads?

@Dak_Attack_09 will create hype threads and post negative threads about players being hyped by other people.

@blueblood70 will post often with what might be really good opinions but most people will not read them due to the formatting being too painful to view.

you can say that but someone's reading them, im a texting formatter, don't care how it comes, out we are NOT MEDIA , not in school, and for sure not being graded or paid for that matter..

so you've been here since 2005 and have 51k likes , i've been here since mid 2018 have nearly 14k likes id say im on the same pace or close to it as you are..how can that be if someone not reading my stuff?

maybe a better statement, i may have more likes if i formatted my replies like this was a job..LOL

 

[Diehardblues]

We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just 5 of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.

We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?

Assumptions aren’t reliable.

But we can make some reliable conclusions based on recent history.

When we play last place schedule we have more often bounced back with a better season.

If our starting QB stays healthy we will probably be in division race until final game.

If our RB leads the league in rushing it’s increases our chances of winning division making playoffs. 3-0 since 2014.

 

[CouchCoach]

I predict:
@Bobhaze will create threads on random Cowboys topics as if his threads are computer generated like some internet new services.
Bob is either computer generated or a retired guy paid to create threads on topics that nobody else is posting about.
Has Bob even replied in anybody else's threads or is he 100% exclusive to his own threads?

@Dak_Attack_09 will create hype threads and post negative threads about players being hyped by other people.

@blueblood70 will post often with what might be really good opinions but most people will not read them due to the formatting being too painful to view.

Wow, somebody needs a hug.

I do consider Bullet our resident Threadmeister and there's always plenty of substance there to generate discussion, the purpose of our gathering here.

 

[CouchCoach]

Assumptions aren’t reliable.

But we can make some more reliable conclusions based on recent history.

When we play last place schedule we have more often bounced back with a better season.

If our starting QB stays healthy we will probably be in division race until final game.

If our RB leads the league in rushing it’s increases our chances of winning division making playoffs. 3-0 since 2014.

While assumptions aren't reliable, try negotiating these threads without them.

Some assumptions must be made to even form an opinion. Now, the opinion might be incorrect because of the assumption but assumptions are what all of this is about.

 

[Diehardblues]

While assumptions are reliable, try negotiating these threads without them.

Some assumptions must be made to even form an opinion. Now, the opinion might be incorrect because of the assumption but assumptions are what all of this is about.

Did you mean to say “aren’t reliable” ? Type O??

 

[Aviano90]

I assume that when I turn on the game each week that I will have no clue which version of the Cowboys will show up that day. One week might look like a playoff contender and the next week look like a team with a top 5 draft pick coming up.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Yeah, I don’t think Zeke is terrible. Unquestionably he’s overpaid in a league where RBs are a dime a dozen. As Zeke enters his sixth season, he has been remarkably durable. No major injuries and he’s been a tough cookie on top of that. He’s been a very reliably good RB.

But when you look at the number of total touches Zeke has had going back to his Soph yr at OSU, he has a lot of miles on those tires. Does that mean he’s “finished”? No. But the days of him being a centerpiece of this offense are over. He may have another 1,000 yard season. Certainly hope so. But I also expect his total touches to be down around 16-18 instead of 30 like most years. Pollard will be getting 12-15 touches per game, which IMO will make the running game better overall, which is great.

So MANY wasted carries. If we use them right....as well as stay healthy....I'd expect 2000 yards from the two in some fashion.

I just don't think KM is committed to it. It's my opinion he'd rather have 450 ypg passing.

 

[Bobhaze]

Did you mean to say “aren’t reliable” ? Type O??

Aren’t assumptions reliably unreliable?

 

[Diehardblues]

Yeah, I don’t think Zeke is terrible. Unquestionably he’s overpaid in a league where RBs are a dime a dozen. As Zeke enters his sixth season, he has been remarkably durable. No major injuries and he’s been a tough cookie on top of that. He’s been a very reliably good RB.

But when you look at the number of total touches Zeke has had going back to his Soph yr at OSU, he has a lot of miles on those tires. Does that mean he’s “finished”? No. But the days of him being a centerpiece of this offense are over. He may have another 1,000 yard season. Certainly hope so. But I also expect his total touches to be down around 16-18 instead of 30 like most years. Pollard will be getting 12-15 touches per game, which IMO will make the running game better overall, which is great.

Some would argue Elliott is a generational talent. I seriously doubt we are done using him as our centerpiece . As a matter of fact most of the insider info I’ve read has written that we will be using him more at least initially to help protect and take the pressure off of Dak and our defense.

But of course if we fall behind early like we did last year we will unfortunately need to abandon the run game. Most accounts are that we are going to revert back to our strength if OL is healthy and pound the rock which has provided our most effective offenses this era leading to our most successful seasons.

 

[john van brocklin]

We all make assumptions every year going into a new season. Most of our assumptions are based on what has happened in the past, and coupled with our hopes as fans, we have additional assumptions for the future.

But one thing that makes the NFL so hard to predict is what happened last year is not often an accurate prediction of the upcoming year. For example, we haven’t had a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004. Every year, there’s about a 50% drop off in NFL playoff teams making the playoffs again the following season. Last season, the number was slightly lower as just 5 of the 12 teams that made it into the 2019 postseason missed the playoffs in 2020.

It’s why the NFL is actually harder to predict than most sports.

So, let’s look at some typical assumptions we make as fans and whether or not those assumptions are reliable- yes, no or maybe.

• Since the WFT won the NFCE last year, they won’t repeat- is that reliable? Well 17 straight seasons without a repeat nfc East winner is about as reliable as the NFL gets. Yes. WFT won’t repeat.
• The Cowboys offense will pick up where they left off before Dak was hurt- We mostly assume this offense will be lights out, but I think it may start slow because Dak and most of the starters on offense haven’t played together in almost a year. They will probably start slow. Maybe. Or…yes eventually.
• The Cowboys defense will be significantly better than last year- when your defense is at the bottom of the league, improvement is likely. I think this defense will struggle to gel early in the season as they learn to play together. But I do think they will be much better. Top 10 defense, no. Yes. This defense will be better but it may take several games to see it.
• Zeke will have a rebound year- I think our running game will be much better but I don’t see Zeke having another dominant season like 2016-18. I think his tire treads are worn. The combo of Zeke and Pollard combined will have a good year. No. But the running game will be much better.
• The Cowboys will make the playoffs- it’s hard to assume this when our Cowboys have only made the playoffs 7 of the last 21 seasons and 2 of the last 5. Do I think they will make the playoffs in 2021? Yes I do. Is this a fair assumption? Maybe.
• Micah Parsons will be a beast as a rookie- Parsons appears to be the most defensive player we’ve had in decades. Barring injury, he should have a very quick impact. It may take a few games to get him used to the NFL. Yes, I assume he will be great.

We all make assumptions about our favorite team. What assumptions do you have and are they reliable?

Outstanding post!
I assume we will have about 10,000 Dak post pro and con on this forum the season. YES

 

[Diehardblues]

The bashing of Elliotts performance is unjust. If you want to bash him off the field then I’m totally on board.

But he’s still arguably our most talented key position player and only one on pace to become HOF. Another rushing title might cement it. He’s already over halfway to 12,000 yards which everyone in that group is in HOF.

 

[75boyz]

So MANY wasted carries. If we use them right....as well as stay healthy....I'd expect 2000 yards from the two in some fashion.

I just don't think KM is committed to it. It's my opinion he'd rather have 450 ypg passing.

Excellent post. Totally agree.
It's my second reason for possible offensive failure. I feel the same as you and believe neither Mac nor Kellen know how to integrate an effective complimentary running game to really show offensive balance and keep defenses guessing.

My first reason for possible offensive failure is that obvious one you mentioned regarding health. And that's starting offensive tackles avoiding injuries.

jmo

 

[xwalker]

Wow. Thanks for stopping by X man. Somehow you missed the 11 threads I’ve commented on the last 24 hrs but being factually correct obviously isn’t required here, lol. Don’t understand the dis, but always glad to see you swoop in on a post. Keep ‘em coming brother.

My post was intended to be humorous.