plasticman
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Are the Cowboys good enough to be Super Bowl contenders?
These are the average statistical average rankings for the past 15 Super Bowl championship teams. That is, I took each Super Bowl team's league ranking for each of the typical categories, points scored and yardage, both offensively and defense. I also averaged the sub-categories, scoring and yardage for both both passing and running:
Offense
PF 10
Yds 14
TO 11
Pass Att 16
Pass Yds 14
Pass TD 11
Int 11
Run Att 11
Run Yds 15
Run TD 12
Defense
PF 8
Yds 10
TO 8
Pass Att 18
Pass Yds 12
Pass TD 6
Int 9
Run Att 12
Run Yds 11
Run TD 11
Some of these numbers may surprise. Most people, myself included, would probably expect higher rankings but I think it's important to understand that any rank 11th or higher is in the upper third of the league and 13 of the 20 categories are in the upper third for the average SB champion, all but one is in the upper half.
It is also important to understand how misleading yardage stats are. For one thing, victories are measured by points, not yards. Also, ranking high offensively in points and lower in yardage does not indicate a shortcoming, it indicates efficiency. Conversely, ranking high defensively in preventing points but lower in preventing yardage means the opponent is expending a lot of energy to obtain yardage but are not getting compensated with the proportional amount of points.
The passing attempt category can be misleading, if you are in the Super Bowl then you won a lot of game, many of them early enough to where you are eating clock with your running game while your opponent increases their passing attempts so they might catch up.
You will notice the highest average offensive ranking among the Super Bowls champions is in the points category. The second most important attribute offensively seems to be ball security. Super Bowl champion offnses don't turn the ball over.
Defensively, the ability to prevent offenses from scoring combined with creating turnovers are the most important features of a championship defense, even more so than they are offensively.
To summarize, the key to championsip teams are their ability to score and avoid turnovers while preventing the opponents from doing the same.
Here are the Cowboys present stats in the same categories:
Cowboy OFF
PF 5
Yds 4
TO 4
Pass Att 31
Pass Yds 19
Pass TD 16
Int 2
Run Att 1
Run Yds 2
Run TD 2
Offensively, the Cowboys rankings are very favorable to the SB averages.
Cowboy DEF
PF 5
Yds 18
TO 26
Pass Att 30
Pass Yds 28
Pass TD 17
Int 30
Run Att 1
Run Yds 2
Run TD 2
The Cowboy defense is very favorble in the scoring category but we also see a glaring discrepancy compared to the SB teams when it comes to the turnover categories. This is the most critical cause for concern going into the last month of the regular season.
Here now is a table of the differential rankings betwen the SB averages and the 2016 Dallas Cowboys. In this case, the higher the positive the better, the higher the negative, the more concern:
OFF DIF
PF 5
Yds 10
TO 7
Pass Att -15
Pass Yds -5
Pass TD -5
Int 9
Run Att 10
Run Yds 13
Run TD 10
DEF DIF
PF 3
Yds -8
TO -18
Pass Att -12
Pass Yds -16
Pass TD -11
Int -21
Run Att 11
Run Yds 9
Run TD 9
This further illustrates the Cowboys most pressing issue.
When we combine these differentials, the Cowboys are slightly below the average SB champions over the past 15 seasons.
When we think of a three game playoff winning streak, because that what it takes to be a champion, it would be difficult to succeed without an incremental improvement to the numbers associated with this defense creating turnovers. At some point in the playoff run, an inability to create these extra advantages over a playoff caliber team may cost a game. In the playoffs, that would be game over.
There is still a quarter of the regular season to play and now is the time when the contenders separate themselves by peaking in December. The good news is this team is young and improving every day while their next three opponents are their mostly likely playoff matchups at least until the NFC championship game
These are the average statistical average rankings for the past 15 Super Bowl championship teams. That is, I took each Super Bowl team's league ranking for each of the typical categories, points scored and yardage, both offensively and defense. I also averaged the sub-categories, scoring and yardage for both both passing and running:
Offense
PF 10
Yds 14
TO 11
Pass Att 16
Pass Yds 14
Pass TD 11
Int 11
Run Att 11
Run Yds 15
Run TD 12
Defense
PF 8
Yds 10
TO 8
Pass Att 18
Pass Yds 12
Pass TD 6
Int 9
Run Att 12
Run Yds 11
Run TD 11
Some of these numbers may surprise. Most people, myself included, would probably expect higher rankings but I think it's important to understand that any rank 11th or higher is in the upper third of the league and 13 of the 20 categories are in the upper third for the average SB champion, all but one is in the upper half.
It is also important to understand how misleading yardage stats are. For one thing, victories are measured by points, not yards. Also, ranking high offensively in points and lower in yardage does not indicate a shortcoming, it indicates efficiency. Conversely, ranking high defensively in preventing points but lower in preventing yardage means the opponent is expending a lot of energy to obtain yardage but are not getting compensated with the proportional amount of points.
The passing attempt category can be misleading, if you are in the Super Bowl then you won a lot of game, many of them early enough to where you are eating clock with your running game while your opponent increases their passing attempts so they might catch up.
You will notice the highest average offensive ranking among the Super Bowls champions is in the points category. The second most important attribute offensively seems to be ball security. Super Bowl champion offnses don't turn the ball over.
Defensively, the ability to prevent offenses from scoring combined with creating turnovers are the most important features of a championship defense, even more so than they are offensively.
To summarize, the key to championsip teams are their ability to score and avoid turnovers while preventing the opponents from doing the same.
Here are the Cowboys present stats in the same categories:
Cowboy OFF
PF 5
Yds 4
TO 4
Pass Att 31
Pass Yds 19
Pass TD 16
Int 2
Run Att 1
Run Yds 2
Run TD 2
Offensively, the Cowboys rankings are very favorable to the SB averages.
Cowboy DEF
PF 5
Yds 18
TO 26
Pass Att 30
Pass Yds 28
Pass TD 17
Int 30
Run Att 1
Run Yds 2
Run TD 2
The Cowboy defense is very favorble in the scoring category but we also see a glaring discrepancy compared to the SB teams when it comes to the turnover categories. This is the most critical cause for concern going into the last month of the regular season.
Here now is a table of the differential rankings betwen the SB averages and the 2016 Dallas Cowboys. In this case, the higher the positive the better, the higher the negative, the more concern:
OFF DIF
PF 5
Yds 10
TO 7
Pass Att -15
Pass Yds -5
Pass TD -5
Int 9
Run Att 10
Run Yds 13
Run TD 10
DEF DIF
PF 3
Yds -8
TO -18
Pass Att -12
Pass Yds -16
Pass TD -11
Int -21
Run Att 11
Run Yds 9
Run TD 9
This further illustrates the Cowboys most pressing issue.
When we combine these differentials, the Cowboys are slightly below the average SB champions over the past 15 seasons.
When we think of a three game playoff winning streak, because that what it takes to be a champion, it would be difficult to succeed without an incremental improvement to the numbers associated with this defense creating turnovers. At some point in the playoff run, an inability to create these extra advantages over a playoff caliber team may cost a game. In the playoffs, that would be game over.
There is still a quarter of the regular season to play and now is the time when the contenders separate themselves by peaking in December. The good news is this team is young and improving every day while their next three opponents are their mostly likely playoff matchups at least until the NFC championship game
