Comparing DMac to Matt Forte

[masomenos]

"There's no comparison"

Thats what most people would probably say. I mean one is the potential #1 overall pick in the draft, and the other is probably looking at a late 2nd or early 3rd round selection. The comparison doesn't even seem worth making, one is a blazingly fast super athlete, and the other is a decent speed guy who had a good showing at the Senior Bowl. But what do the numbers say?

(Stats do not include bowl games, except Yards/YPC/TD)
Attempts
DMC - 309
Forte - 314

Yards/YPC/TD
DMC -1830/5.6/16
Forte - 2127/5.9/22

Runs Where More Than One Defender Was Needed to Make Tackle
DMC - 107 (34.6&#37
Forte - 99 (31.5%)

Runs Resulting in First Downs
DMC - 90 (29.1%)
Forte - 108 (34.4%)

Carries on Third Down
DMC - 38, 20 converted into 1st downs, 18 failed (52.6% success rate)
Forte - 27, 16 converted into 1st downs, 11 failed (59.3% success rate)

Carries on Fourth Down
DMC - 3, 2 converted into 1st downs, 1 failed (66.6% success rate)
Forte - 5, 5 converted into 1st downs, 0 failed (100% success rate)

Runs of 10 yards or more
DMC - 35 (11.3%)
Forte - 55 (17.5%)

Runs of 20 yards or more
DMC - 15 (4.9%)
Forte - 20 (6.4%)

Key Carries on Scoring Drives
DMC - 39 (12.6%)
Forte - 41 (13.1%)

Tackled at or Behind Line of Scrimmage
DMC - 40 (12.9%)
Forte - 59 (18.8%)

It's kind of eye opening isn't it? One player will get a 50-60 million dollar contract and the other will be lucky to get a fifth of that. Is the fact that McFadden played in the SEC while Forte played in C-USA enough to warrant the huge difference in salary? I think the most surprising thing was how Forte was both more successful at sustaining drives, and more successful at breaking long runs. Say what you want about difference in competition between the conferences, but Forte is an extraordinary player who isn't getting enough press. I'm not suggesting that Forte deserves to be considered for being the top pick in the draft, but I do think he should be considered as MB3s running mate.

 

[Biggems]

check out the 6th round of my sig

 

[masomenos]

check out the 6th round of my sig

I like the inclusion, but I think the absolute latest you'll see Forte go is in the 4th round, and thats if he has a poor combine.

 

[Biggems]

I like the inclusion, but I think the absolute latest you'll see Forte go is in the 4th round, and thats if he has a poor combine.

it all depends on how they view level of competition. Afterall he did go to Tulane...and their schedule was weak.....

it will definitely depend on his combine numbers......i hadnt seen him play till the senior bowl, and he definitely left a positive impression on me. i like his hands as a receiver and i love how hard he runs, especially after contact (a far cry from JJ being tackled by a pinky)

 

[Natedawg44]

Compare DMac and Forte

OK,
They both play running back.

 

[masomenos]

Compare DMac and Forte

OK,
They both play running back.

And statistically they both play it very effectively.

 

[theogt]

Strength of schedule makes up for a good bit. But I don't think McFadden (or any running back) is worth much more than the average running back, and we obviously already have an above-average running back.

 

[silverbear]

It's kind of eye opening isn't it? One player will get a 50-60 million dollar contract and the other will be lucky to get a fifth of that. Is the fact that McFadden played in the SEC while Forte played in C-USA enough to warrant the huge difference in salary?

Yes...

You should discount the stats of any running back that had the good fortune to play against UTEP by at least 20 per cent... as a former Miner, it gives me no pleasure to say that, but their defense this past season as quite putrid...

 

[TellerMorrow34]

Strength of schedule makes up for a good bit. But I don't think McFadden (or any running back) is worth much more than the average running back, and we obviously already have an above-average running back.

I agree with you completely.


You're quickly becoming one of my favorite posters.

 

[masomenos]

Strength of schedule makes up for a good bit. But I don't think McFadden (or any running back) is worth much more than the average running back, and we obviously already have an above-average running back.

If strength of schedule matters so much then why is a guy like Chris Johnson rated as high as a late first round pick? It just seems inconsistent.

Against like opponents this is Chris Johnson v. Matt Forte

Houston
Johnson - 147 yards 2 TDs, Long of 43
Forte - 85 yards 0 TDs, Long of 15

UAB
Johnson - 79 yards 1 TD, Long of 20
Forte - 209 yards 1 TD, Long of 34

Memphis
Johnson - 301 yards 4 TDs, Long of 70
Forte - 278 yards 2 TDs, Long of 51

UTEP
Johnson - 126 yards 0 TDs, Long of 32
Forte - 171 yards 2 TDs, Long of 18

Overall
Johnson - 653 yards 7 TDs
Forte - 743 yards 5 TDs

Is it Johnsons speed that pushes him over the top? Is it that "homerun" threat that makes a player so much more valuable in the draft? The ability to take those yards in large chunks over getting them steadily. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. If anything the ability to sustain drives and consistently pick up quality yardage seems more important than the ability to break a big run every now and then.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Size speed wight Confrence

Chris Johnson sub 4.3 speed look at what he did in his Bowl game.
DMac compare his career stats to Matt Forte's. Lined up at QB against the number 1 team in the nation and drove them down the field.

All-purpose yardage i would like to see how they compare in that since running backs do more than just run

 

[texbumthelife]

What you are forgetting is, we already have that drive sustaining, move the chains running back in Barber. If we do draft a running back high it will be based almost soley on that backs homerun ability, as that is all Barber lacks.

 

[masomenos]

I wish we really could compare DMac and Fortes career, but Tulan changed offenses this year and it was the first time Forte had ever been given a big workload (over 200 carries in a season). The change from a spread offense to a WCO certainly accounted for the increased production, but who's to say how he would have done in a west coast offense if he played his whole career in one.

As far as combined yards, rushing, receiving, passing* and returning* (*if applicable).

Dmac - 2433 offensive and special teams yards, 21 TDs
Johnson - 2552 offensive and special teams yards, 22 TDs
Forte - 2409 offensive yards, 22 TDs

And Chris Johnson did have a fantastic bowl game, but he also fumbled the ball with less than a minute left when ECU was trying to run out the clock. Boise St. scooped and scored on Johnson's fumble and tied the game up. He had a terrific game, but also almost cost his team the game.

 

[masomenos]

What you are forgetting is, we already have that drive sustaining, move the chains running back in Barber. If we do draft a running back high it will be based almost soley on that backs homerun ability, as that is all Barber lacks.

Im not forgetting that actually, I'm just kind of ignoring it. The problem I have with a "homerun" back is that their "homerun" ability is strictly dependent on the amount of carries they get. They aren't going to break a long one just because we put them in the game, and a lot of times they're going to go for fewer yards than those backs who just pick up smaller chunks of yardage consistently.

With two "Barber" style backs you have a consistent force that is fresh legged and can move the chains and sustain drives. Instead of complimenting Barber, why don't we just bring in someone who can do what he does when Barber isn't in? I just don't get the logic of, "Oh well, Barber's not in, let's completely change the style up." With constant punishment the D is going to wear down, and tired linebackers mean an open Jason Witten...an open Jason Witten means safety help on Witten which in turn means 1 on 1 match-ups for WRs...1 on 1 match-ups for WRs means shots down field, which means big plays downfield. It's not like drafting another hard runner would be limiting ourselves to a conservative offense.

Consider these numbers:

# of Games with at least 1 run of 20+ yards
McFadden - 10
Forte - 9
Johnson -8

# of Games with at least 1 run of 30+ yards
Forte - 7
McFadden - 5
Johnson - 5

# of Games with at least 1 run of 40+ yards
Forte - 4
McFadden - 4
Johnson -3

# of Games with at least 1 run of 50+ yards
McFadden - 4
Forte - 2
Johnson - 2

# of Games with at least 1 run of 60+ yards
McFadden - 2
Johnson - 2
Forte - 1

# of Games with at least 1 run of 70+ yards
McFadden - 2
Forte - 1
Johnson - 1

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Wow....that is amazing to look at....

 

[theogt]

If strength of schedule matters so much then why is a guy like Chris Johnson rated as high as a late first round pick? It just seems inconsistent.

That's a very good question, but I don't rate Johnson that highly, and I like Forte a good bit.

 

[dboyz]

I don't know much about Forte. I don't think I saw him play much. Anyone have any highlights of him?

 

[DaBoys4Life]

I wish we really could compare DMac and Fortes career, but Tulan changed offenses this year and it was the first time Forte had ever been given a big workload (over 200 carries in a season). The change from a spread offense to a WCO certainly accounted for the increased production, but who's to say how he would have done in a west coast offense if he played his whole career in one.

As far as combined yards, rushing, receiving, passing* and returning* (*if applicable).

Dmac - 2433 offensive and special teams yards, 21 TDs
Johnson - 2552 offensive and special teams yards, 22 TDs
Forte - 2409 offensive yards, 22 TDs

And Chris Johnson did have a fantastic bowl game, but he also fumbled the ball with less than a minute left when ECU was trying to run out the clock. Boise St. scooped and scored on Johnson's fumble and tied the game up. He had a terrific game, but also almost cost his team the game.

So basically all Forte can do is run the ball no receiving TD's. Has average speed running above 4.5. He basically an average back and does nothing to stand out. Chris Johnson has basically speed can catch out of the backfield and has played special teams the same goes for DMac who can also play QB. Do you see the difference yet? Did Tulane have a bowl game if so did they win and what did matt forte do in that bowl game? Kevin Smith ran for almost 2500 yards and is projecting to be a 4th round prospect. I think this speaks to how deep the draft is at the RB posistion. After the Combine forte stock will go up even higher he will probally be a 2nd round prospect.

 

[masomenos]

I don't know much about Forte. I don't think I saw him play much. Anyone have any highlights of him?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bbaIF22NGQ

This is the only one I've found. Now don't expect to be wowed by explosive speed or anything, but I think it's hard not to be impressed by the kids vision, leg drive, and quick cut ability.

 

[masomenos]

That's a very good question, but I don't rate Johnson that highly, and I like Forte a good bit.

Yeah, I just don't get it. I think all of this shows exactly what you were saying though, that there isn't that much of a difference between an average running back and an above average running back.