Comparison: against teams with winning records in 2009...

Kevinicus

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I just realized the stats in the OP are wrong. San Diego has 2 losses against teams with a winning record, and their 3rd loss is to a 6-6 team which very easily could be a winning team come Sunday. So, they're just 3-2, and if Pittsburgh hadn't of collapsed, they'd be 3-3. Even if you don't count Pittsburgh, they could be 3-4 at the end of this week and Dallas with an Atlanta win could also be 3-4.

Funny how things like this can change so quickly.
 

Dodger

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ChldsPlay;3135328 said:
I just realized the stats in the OP are wrong. San Diego has 2 losses against teams with a winning record, and their 3rd loss is to a 6-6 team which very easily could be a winning team come Sunday. So, they're just 3-2, and if Pittsburgh hadn't of collapsed, they'd be 3-3. Even if you don't count Pittsburgh, they could be 3-4 at the end of this week and Dallas with an Atlanta win could also be 3-4.

Funny how things like this can change so quickly.
Which is why I've always felt that an argument using this stat is lame.
 

aikemirv

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Atlanta and Philly both had winning records WHEN WE PLAYED THEM - what has happened since should have no bearing - so, we in essense are 2-4 against teams with a winning record.

W - Atl, Philly
L - Den,GB,NYG,NYG

Lets face it, we blew both games against NYG and it hurts but I think that like someone said I can name stupid plays in all of those losses that changed the game.

I don't know how that helps you feel more comfortable or why what we did 5 weeks ago makes any difference.

The fact is that THIS WEEK they need to come out and play ball like they can.

If they do I feel really good about our chances of winning.

If not they lose like they did last week. Like I said Monday - for the Cowboys it is prove it to me time - to themselves first and then to the fans.

I will try not to get my hopes up so they can dissapoint me and I will enjoy it thouroghly if we win. I don't know what to expect with them, so I am trying not to get my expectations too high so I don't have to fall so far!
 

Alexander

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Bleu Star;3134133 said:
This year our Cowboys are a stellar 1-4 against teams with winning records. In stark contrast, the Chargers are 3-1 against the same variable. Can someone help me gain some confidence that we won't get whooped in our own house on Sunday?
Wait.

I thought the Chargers were only good because they played in a weak division?
 

jterrell

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Skinsmaniac;3134616 said:
But doesn't the same thing apply to the Chargers? The fact is that they are 3-1 and the Boys are 1-4. It's true that only losses count, not wins, but the Chargers have faced the same problem. The problem with "against teams with a winning record" therefore cuts against both teams, making the OP's point still valid - the Chargers have played better against good teams than the Cowboys have.

Lots of slow folks here... the record of Dallas versus winning teams wouldn't be 1-3 if you removed games in which we played.

That was Adam's point.

A more common and concrete way to examine this is common opponents.

SD comes out better by far: 7-1 for them, 3-3 for us.

In fairness there though they beat NYG by 1 point and we lost first by 2 then by 7 so all those games were close.

They also split with the other team we lost to: Denver including on the raid same as we did.

SD gets 4 wins versus Oak/KC.

End of the day they have a far easier strength of schedule and a really easy division.

They are 1 game better than us versus an easier schedule.
They have lost to Pitt/Balt/Den so to better AFC teams they have played.

The Chargers have beaten one team on the road who has won 5 or more games: the Giants by 1 point.
Average or better teams are really hard to beat on the road and NEITHER club has proven they can consistently do that.
If you want something to feel good about as a Dallas fan that is it.

This game offers the stiffest Chargers road challenge of the season.
 

jterrell

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Alexander;3135398 said:
Wait.

I thought the Chargers were only good because they played in a weak division?

You are right, I am sure they'd rather have faced :confused: our schedule....
 

jterrell

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kidcrook;3134854 said:
In my recollection, this team hasn't beaten a playoff team outside of the division since the Green Bay game in 2007.

That stat really doesn't say much. It means in 08 they didn't beat any NON-divisional playoff team. Removing the division stuff is garbage. Dallas was 1-1 versus both Philly and NYG in 08. They lost to both Super Bowl Teams ON THE ROAD in close games.

Dallas played one home game against a non-divisional playoff opponent in 2008: Baltimore so that entire stat rests on winning one game.

That 07 game against GB was in Dallas.
So is this SD game. Expect a win.

Next week we play NO on the road... expect a loss.
 

alancdc

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AdamJT13;3134587 said:
Did you even read the rest of what I wrote?

Let's say we play a team that is 6-6. If we win the game, that team is 6-7, and it doesn't count as a win over a team with a "winning record." But if we lose, that team is 7-6, and it counts as a loss to a team with a "winning record." It's the SAME TEAM either way. But it only counts as a game against a "winning team" if you lose. That makes no sense.

Because we lost twice to the Giants, both games count in this flawed stat. If we had swept the Giants or split, NEITHER game would count.

If we had lost to the Falcons, that game would count (they'd be 7-5). But because we won, it doesn't count (they're only 6-6).

It's not a difficult concept. Unless you remove the games against the team in question, you're creating a flawed, self-fulfilling stat.

If you consider only teams that have a winning record against the rest of the league -- not including our games -- we're actually 2-2 against winning teams. We beat the Eagles (8-3) and Falcons (6-5) but lost to the Packers (7-4) and Broncos (7-4).

You are right on. Also, the biggest factor on this, in my mind, is WHEN you play someone. If you tell me that beating the Steelers, for instance, in week 3 is not a quality win I would disagree at that time. However, now, they are 6-7 and it would not fit into this winning record debate. When we beat Atlanta I would count that as a "quality" win at the time. Now that they have some injuries to, I don't know, their starting QB and RB's it isn't as impressive? Don't believe that.
 

jterrell

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alancdc;3135505 said:
You are right on. Also, the biggest factor on this, in my mind, is WHEN you play someone. If you tell me that beating the Steelers, for instance, in week 3 is not a quality win I would disagree at that time. However, now, they are 6-7 and it would not fit into this winning record debate. When we beat Atlanta I would count that as a "quality" win at the time. Now that they have some injuries to, I don't know, their starting QB and RB's it isn't as impressive? Don't believe that.

that's why you can't generally use stats in the real world just in the phone booth. :)

There's a lot of factors that add up to SD has won one more game than Dallas but this game is in Dallas. Dallas is or was a 3 point favorite according to the Vegas oddsmakers. Unlike us, those guys get paid to create accurate game lines.
 

WarDaddy

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jterrell;3135494 said:
That stat really doesn't say much. It means in 08 they didn't beat any NON-divisional playoff team. Removing the division stuff is garbage. Dallas was 1-1 versus both Philly and NYG in 08. They lost to both Super Bowl Teams ON THE ROAD in close games.

Dallas played one home game against a non-divisional playoff opponent in 2008: Baltimore so that entire stat rests on winning one game.

That 07 game against GB was in Dallas.
So is this SD game. Expect a win.

Next week we play NO on the road... expect a loss.


The fact still remains that this team has to be able to beat at least one playoff team.

I didn't count the losses to division foes in my example either. They say, "throw out the records in a divisional game" and you have to. Teams are familiar with the coaching styles and the personnel and it makes a difference.

Not to be overly negative but this team does more than just struggle with the good teams. We just can't seem to win. It's almost inexplicable. Like a self-destruction.

It's getting so painful to watch.

Talent keeps them in the game each time but there is always one boneheaded play or two that cancels out all of the effort put into the game up to that point. Before you know it, the game is over and the Cowboys lose a game they should have won.

It's funny but I've come to this conclusion. This team marks is the mid-point between pretender and contender. If you beat Dallas you are a playoff team. If not, you're not. Dallas will consistently handle teams that aren't playoff worthy but will almost certainly lose if they are.

Think about it.

Arizona last year.
Pittsburgh last year.
Baltimore last year.

(We won't count the last Eagles game...)

Denver this year.
Green Bay this year.
Both Giants games this year.

You win all those games and you're the best team in the league but that's not the point. You have to split those games at least to be a contender.

You can pin point ONE HUGE PLAY in each game that if a mistake wasn't made and an opportunity wasn't squandered, the game would have been won by Dallas.

Now are several other plays that go unnoticed in a game that can swing the ballgame one way or another but each of these games have a similar feel to them.

The other team just seemed to want it more.

The sad thing is we don't have ANY examples of these types of games going in the Cowboys favor in the past few seasons.

This year we have been a little more scrappy in winning the Commanders game and the Eagles game and it gives us a little bit of hope but last week felt all too familiar...
 

Skinsmaniac

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jterrell;3135464 said:
Lots of slow folks here... the record of Dallas versus winning teams wouldn't be 1-3 if you removed games in which we played.

That was Adam's point.

A more common and concrete way to examine this is common opponents.

SD comes out better by far: 7-1 for them, 3-3 for us.

In fairness there though they beat NYG by 1 point and we lost first by 2 then by 7 so all those games were close.

They also split with the other team we lost to: Denver including on the raid same as we did.

SD gets 4 wins versus Oak/KC.

End of the day they have a far easier strength of schedule and a really easy division.

They are 1 game better than us versus an easier schedule.
They have lost to Pitt/Balt/Den so to better AFC teams they have played.

The Chargers have beaten one team on the road who has won 5 or more games: the Giants by 1 point.
Average or better teams are really hard to beat on the road and NEITHER club has proven they can consistently do that.
If you want something to feel good about as a Dallas fan that is it.

This game offers the stiffest Chargers road challenge of the season.
It's funny that you called me slow, yet don't understand my post. Read it again. Slowly this time.
 

mldardy

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Bleu Star;3134705 said:
Ok. :rolleyes: Thanks for playing...
There is no playing dude, we're 8-4. There is no use trying to break down our schedule against over .500 teams and under .500 teams at this point. Too many people like you want to worry about being 1-4 against .500 teams. Who cares at this point. You can't go back and change any of that now. Just worry about beating San Diego. But if you want to go back like a nerd and analyze what our record is against certain teams then have at it.
 

kramskoi

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...per Football Outsiders, Dallas [#9] is 1-4 in games played against the top 12...

#2 Philadelphia win /4 pts
#3 Green Bay loss /10 pts
#10 Denver loss /7 pts
#12 NYG loss twice /9 pts total

#13 SD ?
#1 NO ?
#2 PHI ?

...the question then becomes how many games should Dallas win considering their own rating...but a careful examination of these losses betrays one common theme...in all losses the game turned on a crucial turnover deep in Cowboys territory...this is some seriously bad mojo and maybe that's pretty much why Dallas is 1-4 against the top 12...put simply, turnover differential sets Dallas apart from its top 12 bretheren...especially NO, GB, PHI and SD, who they face next...


Dallas -2
Philadelphia +12
Green Bay +18
Denver +2
New York -1
San Diego +9
New Orleans +15
 

Bleu Star

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mldardy;3136194 said:
There is no playing dude, we're 8-4. There is no use trying to break down our schedule against over .500 teams and under .500 teams at this point. Too many people like you want to worry about being 1-4 against .500 teams. Who cares at this point. You can't go back and change any of that now. Just worry about beating San Diego. But if you want to go back like a nerd and analyze what our record is against certain teams then have at it.

Apparently not you. You'd be satisfied with a records that doesn't really tell a story. Who cares if we are one & done in the playoffs (if we even make it) right?

Silliness.

Hey thanks for allowing me to be a nerd!
 
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The Chargers understand what it takes to win in December/January... Dallas is still trying to learn that unfortunately.
 

SilberBlau

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gonna bump this thread ;)

the final stats against winning teams (and by winning teams i mean their record in other games than the one against us, kinda Adams way of calculating it):

win over Carolina 8-7
win over Atlanta 9-6
win over Philadelphia 11-3
loss at Green Bay 10-5
loss against San Diego 12-3
win over New Orleans 13-2
win over Philadelphia 11-3

makes it 5-2
not too bad I guess
 

chuffly

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SilberBlau;3200433 said:
gonna bump this thread ;)

the final stats against winning teams (and by winning teams i mean their record in other games than the one against us, kinda Adams way of calculating it):

win over Carolina 8-7
win over Atlanta 9-6
win over Philadelphia 11-3
loss at Green Bay 10-5
loss against San Diego 12-3
win over New Orleans 13-2
win over Philadelphia 11-3

makes it 5-2
not too bad I guess

Very interesting to go back and read this thread. It's funny how quickly things can change in three weeks.
 

sago1

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[So what this guy is saying is that our 2 wins against the Eagles didn't count; I guess the only game that counted was the win over NO. But we are playing the Eagles on Saturday & they didn't beat any team currently playing in the playoffs. Sounds to me like we win/win on Saturday.
 
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