Cowboy D better than Packer D

[ScipioCowboy]

After some analysis of Dallas' opponent next Thursday, I've concluded that the Cowboy D is better than the Packer D.

This is not a homeristic opinion nor was it my opinion prior to last week. Only after examining all relevant stats did I come to it.

Normally, when comparing defenses, the most important statistic is scoring defense, not total defense. The scoring defenses compare as follows:

Cowboys - 20.1 points per game (12th in the league).
Packers - 16.8 (6th in the league).

Cursory inspection of these numbers suggests that Green Bay possesses the better defense, surrendering almost 4 fewer points - an opinion that I held until I delved deeper into the stats.

Dallas opponents have scored five TDs when the Cowboy defense wasn't even on the field: 1 kickoff return for a TD, 1 punt return for a TD, 1 fumble recovery for a TD, and 2 interceptions returned for TDs. Conversely, Green Bay has allowed no TDs via special teams or defensive returns.

So, by eliminating all special teams and defensive scores from consideration, the following comparison emerges.

Cowboys' defense - 16.9 points per game.
Packers' defense - 16.8 points per game.

Virtually identical.

Also, the Cowboys have played the New England Patriots. The Packers have not. And only two Patriot opponents still rank within the top 12 of NFL scoring defenses - Dallas and Indianapolis.

Other relevant statistics for our comparison include total defense, sacks, and turnovers.

Cowboys - 299.1 yards per game (7th in the league).
Packers - 315.4 yards per game (12th in the league).

Cowboys - 30 sacks
Packers - 32 sacks

Cowboys - 16 ints
Packers - 12 ints

Cowboys - 7 fumble recoveries
Packers - 8 fumble recoveries

The Packers have more sacks, a point in their favor; however, the primary goal of sacks is forcing turnovers. And the Cowboys have four more interceptions and more total turnovers.

Therefore, Dallas gets the edge, if only a slight one.

 

[Rampage]

we'll find out on thursday who has the better defense.

 

[theogt]

According to Football Outsiders' rankings, which take into account a lot of the things in your post, Dallas has the 7th ranked defense and Green Bay has the 9th ranked defense. Also, Dallas has the 2nd ranked offense, while Green Bay has the 4th ranked offense.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

we'll find out on thursday who has the better defense.

Well excuse me for discussing future Cowboy games in a Cowboy discussion forum.

:laugh2:

 

[ScipioCowboy]

According to Football Outsiders' rankings, which take into account a lot of the things in your post, Dallas has the 7th ranked defense and Green Bay has the 9th ranked defense. Also, Dallas has the 2nd ranked offense, while Green Bay has the 4th ranked offense.

I've always thought the fine people at Football Outsiders were excellent analysts...until they denigrate the Cowboys, of course.

 

[Givincer]

I'd say, without any question, our offense is better. Green Bay is 30th in the league in rush offense, and 24th in avg per attempt with 3.6. Compare that to our 4.4 average, good for 5th in the league. I just think we are a much more balanced offense, with simply better talent all around. And I don't hesitate to say that either.

So the only question then comes down to defense, and I think your stats bear out that we have a slight edge over them, even if not by a lot.

We should win this game.

 

[circasurvive]

I actually think that the Packers have the better matchups but not the better team. Noone has been able to stop that big 5 play where you get 5 recievers out there and Favre just hit whoever he wants. The thing about more recievers is less coverage. So if you blitz the LBs then Favre hits the slant reciever on the side that blitzs. I dont see Dallas stopping the big 5. I doubt the Patriots could even stop this big 5. All the Packer recievers are 2nd or 3rd string caliber except Donald Driver. However I dont see the Packers stopping Jason Witten. When playing the Chiefs the Pack allowed Gonzalez to catch 10 res for 108 yards and a TD. When playing the Broncos, their TE caught every third down pass that went his way and he even caught a TD. When playing the Commanders Chris Cooley dominated the defense catching key passes all over the field to keep drives moving. Packers defensive weakness is the TE.

 

[Bizwah]

I actually think that the Packers have the better matchups but not the better team. Noone has been able to stop that big 5 play where you get 5 recievers out there and Favre just hit whoever he wants. The thing about more recievers is less coverage. So if you blitz the LBs then Favre hits the slant reciever on the side that blitzs. I dont see Dallas stopping the big 5. I doubt the Patriots could even stop this big 5. All the Packer recievers are 2nd or 3rd string caliber except Donald Driver. However I dont see the Packers stopping Jason Witten. When playing the Chiefs the Pack allowed Gonzalez to catch 10 res for 108 yards and a TD. When playing the Broncos, their TE caught every third down pass that went his way and he even caught a TD. When playing the Commanders Chris Cooley dominated the defense catching key passes all over the field to keep drives moving. Packers defensive weakness is the TE.

I tend to agree.

The NFL doesn't decide games by who has the best personnel. It's how your personnel matches up.

I think our offense has many favorable matches. But I think Harris/Woodson match up better against Crayton/Hurd better than injured Henry/Reeves against Jennings/Martin/etc. Witten will be the best TE on the field, but Lee has been playing well and we all know how weak we are vs TEs.

 

[Longboysfan]

I was thinking as I watched the Packers at the end of their game.
They were going on about the play choice balance.
I think the injury to first Newman then Henry has helped us a lot.
The injuries got a lot of different DB's into the mix and allow us to practice during the games. The defensive setup has allowed us to get everyone in and going to play a lot of reps. We should be able to cover the WR's from the pack better than most teams.

Also on the Pack covering TO with Al Harris is a 50/50 bet that when Al comes up to jam TO that TO releases downfield clear of coverage.

The only thing that I think may hurt us a bit more is if the Packers can lock up Roy Williams in coverage a lot of times during the game.

 

[circasurvive]

Both teams I would have to say are weak covering TEs. Lees not as good as his numbers are. Hes just open thanks to the PA and the big 4 set with 4 recievers and a TE. But none the less hes been making the catches.

 

[DBoys]

Not to mention the easy schedule GB has.

 

[circasurvive]

BTW defensively both teams have misleading records. Both teams have scored so much early that teams are forced to pass. Might be why the sacks and interceptions went up while the passing defense went down. Teams are forced to pass the ball in that situation playing catchup and it also decreases the run stats. Must take that into acoount.

 

[NextGenBoys]

Not to mention the easy schedule GB has.

Their opponents have a better overall record than do our opponents.

Now, down the stretch, yeah they play cupcake teams. But as of now, they have played better teams.

 

[The Panch]

Their defense is better than us where it counts tho, on the scoreboard. Granted, NE put up half a bill on us and the G-strings lit us up big in week 1, but Favre isnt gonna struggle in the red zone if our D is lame enough to allow him to get that far. That front line better hurt that mofo.

 

[theogt]

Their defense is better than us where it counts tho, on the scoreboard. Granted, NE put up half a bill on us and the G-strings lit us up big in week 1, but Favre isnt gonna struggle in the red zone if our D is lame enough to allow him to get that far. That front line better hurt that mofo.

Check out the OP:

So, by eliminating all special teams and defensive scores from consideration, the following comparison emerges.

Cowboys' defense - 16.9 points per game.
Packers' defense - 16.8 points per game.

And that's despite our offense scoring 6 more points per game.

 

[Kevinicus]

BTW defensively both teams have misleading records. Both teams have scored so much early that teams are forced to pass. Might be why the sacks and interceptions went up while the passing defense went down. Teams are forced to pass the ball in that situation playing catchup and it also decreases the run stats. Must take that into acoount.

That's not really true in GB's case. Most of GBs games have been relatively close until the last 3 or so. They have had a lot of 1 score games.

 

[The Panch]

Check out the OP:

And that's despite our offense scoring 6 more points per game.[/color][/size]

Those numbers cant be right. I checked the #'s on NFL.com on ppg allowed specifically on the defense and Dallas is at 20.1(ranked 12th) and GB is at 16.8(ranked 5th).

 

[Kevinicus]

Those numbers cant be right. I checked the #'s on NFL.com on ppg allowed specifically on the defense and Dallas is at 20.1(ranked 12th) and GB is at 16.8(ranked 5th).

Those stats are counting the pts scored against the offense and on special teams. Officially they are counted against the defense even though they weren't scored on the D. The 16.9 to 16.8 is adjusted to accurately show what the defense, and defense only has given up.

 

[The Panch]

I just calculated the points put on our D and you're right. Stupid NFL. *smh*

 

[ScipioCowboy]

I actually think that the Packers have the better matchups but not the better team. Noone has been able to stop that big 5 play where you get 5 recievers out there and Favre just hit whoever he wants. The thing about more recievers is less coverage. So if you blitz the LBs then Favre hits the slant reciever on the side that blitzs. I dont see Dallas stopping the big 5. I doubt the Patriots could even stop this big 5. All the Packer recievers are 2nd or 3rd string caliber except Donald Driver. However I dont see the Packers stopping Jason Witten. When playing the Chiefs the Pack allowed Gonzalez to catch 10 res for 108 yards and a TD. When playing the Broncos, their TE caught every third down pass that went his way and he even caught a TD. When playing the Commanders Chris Cooley dominated the defense catching key passes all over the field to keep drives moving. Packers defensive weakness is the TE.

In my opinion, the Packers aren't likely to utilize their big 5 package with any great frequency against Dallas; otherwise, Favre will get beaten to a bloody pulp.

The Cowboys needn't send extra rushers. They can simply unleash their three best rushers at once--Ware, Ellis, and Spencer. Using five wides negates the threat of the run because Favre isn't a prolific scrambler; consequently, Dallas can sacrifice size along the defensive line for speed and pass rushing ability.

Consider a four man line consisting of Ware and Spencer at end, and Ellis and Ratliff at tackle. Ratliff can force a double team from his nose tackle position, leaving Ware, Spencer, and Ellis against a single blocker because there's no extra backs in the backfield.

Unless Favre wants to get hammered on each drop back, he'll be relegated to throwing shorter routes, which the defensive backs will begin jumping as the game progresses.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the Packers will expose Brett Favre by using empty sets as often as they have recently. Many of Dallas' opponents, including New England, have been forced to go max protect on pass plays.