Cowboys 4th down attempts

[Diehardblues]

Only 3 teams in the league have more 4th down attempts than we do and they all have losing records. Meaning most teams with this many attempts do it out of desperation.

12 of our 17 4th down attempts have come in the 1st half so we know they aren’t coming from necessity but more about who we are.

This was reported just now on the weekly Dallas Cowboys Special Edition by beat writer David Moore. I found it very interesting.

 

[jazzcat22]

Did they say how successful our attempts are, as well as the rest of the league average?

I watched this last night, and heard that part when he said that, but can't recall if he gave any other stats. It was like 1 AM as I was about to fall asleep.

 

[thunderpimp91]

The thing that doesn’t get mentioned is aside from really about 4 teams the difference in 4th down attempts really isn’t that much. At least 30/32 teams average at least one per game. So yes we are technically 4th but the gap between us and the rest of the league is pretty minimal.

 

[acr731]

Only 3 teams in the league have more 4th down attempts than we do and they all have losing records. Meaning most teams with this many attempts do it out of desperation.

12 of our 17 4th down attempts have come in the 1st half so we know they aren’t coming from necessity but more about who we are.

This was reported just now on the weekly Dallas Cowboys Special Edition by beat writer David Moore. I found it very interesting.

The 4th down tries against Denver might have been ill-timed and possibly cost them the game. I like being aggressive, but at least be smart about it.

 

[Diehardblues]

The thing that doesn’t get mentioned is aside from really about 4 teams the difference in 4th down attempts really isn’t that much. At least 30/32 teams average at least one per game. So yes we are technically 4th but the gap between us and the rest of the league is pretty minimal.

His bigger point was that most teams attempt in 2nd half when game is on the line where we attempt more if ours in 1st half.

 

[Diehardblues]

The 4th down tries against Denver might have been ill-timed and possibly cost them the game. I like being aggressive, but at least be smart about it.

And against the Pats set them up early.

 

[Risen Star]

McCarthy fears nothing. (Except playing Tyron today)

He's a true leader of men.

 

[Diehardblues]

Did they say how successful our attempts are, as well as the rest of the league average?

I watched this last night, and heard that part when he said that, but can't recall if he gave any other stats. It was like 1 AM as I was about to fall asleep.

No didn’t say success rates except that those 3 teams with more were all losing teams.

 

[Garrettop]

I love how some people will confuse whether or not something was a good decision based on the success of the execution.

 

[Diehardblues]

I love how some people will confuse whether or not something was a good decision based on the success of the execution.

Ultimately the result is the measuring stick. If you continue to not execute what initially might appear a good decision or strategy eventually it won’t be recognized as a good decision if the circumstances or the personnel attempting don’t meet the challenge.

 

[HungryLion]

McCarthy is following the numbers when it comes to 4th down attempts.

love it or hate it.


I think he is at least being consistent in his approach. Basically if the “math” says go for it. He does. If it doesn’t, he doesn’t.

 

[Diehardblues]

McCarthy is following the numbers when it comes to 4th down attempts.

love it or hate it.


I think he is at least being consistent in his approach. Basically if the “math” says go for it. He does. If it doesn’t, he doesn’t.

What numbers ? Who’s math? I’d like to see it.

And does the math take into consideration the situation, circumstance, opponent and momentum?

 

[HungryLion]

What numbers ? Who’s math? I’d like to see it.

And does the math take into consideration the situation, circumstance, opponent and momentum?

The analytics. Feel free to google it. A large majority of time. If win % is higher going for it than not, Mike will do so.

and no it doesn’t take circumstance into account. I’m not arguing that it does. What I’m saying is. This is the approach that Mike has decided to take. To be aggressive and to go for it when the win % analytics says to do so.

you can like or dislike that approach but I’m just saying that’s what he is doing.


I prefer this over Garret’s overly cautious approach. I’ll say that.

 

[charron]

I'd rather go for it than not. We are an offense centric team so our best path to win is leaning on the offense. Scoring early puts us in a much better position to win, hence going for it early. It's easy to only go for it late when you have nothing to lose. Those 4th and ,7 calls took guts.

 

[Praxit]

...MM knows what type of O he has. ..

 

[Diehardblues]

The analytics. Feel free to google it. A large majority of time. If win % is higher going for it than not, Mike will do so.

and no it doesn’t take circumstance into account. I’m not arguing that it does. What I’m saying is. This is the approach that Mike has decided to take. To be aggressive and to go for it when the win % analytics says to do so.

you can like or dislike that approach but I’m just saying that’s what he is doing.


I prefer this over Garret’s overly cautious approach. I’ll say that.

But the math behind analytics doesn’t measure the effects when it doesn’t work which could outweigh the benefits.

 

[Garrettop]

But the math behind analytics doesn’t measure the effects when it doesn’t work which could outweigh the benefits.

You're a prior data analytics guy who has defected or some nobody who is just mad?

 

[Diehardblues]

You're a prior data analytics guy who has defected or some nobody who is just mad?

No, I’m an accountant who has math skills. And while the percentages may add up the times it’s unsuccessful in a sports format as such may actually be more of a deterrent overall.

 

[Garrettop]

No, I’m an accountant who has math skills. And while the percentages may add up the times it’s unsuccessful in a sports format as such may actually be more of a deterrent overall.

Pure math guys tend to struggle with stats, particularly those based on human behavior. Somewhat exemplified by the relative unreadability of your latter sentence. Analytics may make the game less fun (which it has done for baseball and basketball up to this point), and may also occasionally be beaten, but it's not because it's "wrong".

 

[Diehardblues]

Pure math guys tend to struggle with stats, particularly those based on human behavior. Somewhat exemplified by the relative unreadability of your latter sentence. Analytics may make the game less fun (which it has done for baseball and basketball up to this point), and may also occasionally be beaten, but it's not because it's "wrong".

It doesn’t have to be wrong to not apply to the situation or circumstances.